Depreciation Of The Renminbi Will Not Necessarily Be Good For Export.

< p > because the water content of the high profile export has been greatly reduced in May last year, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > foreign trade < /a >, the foreign trade data in May this year have been much better.

Examining the export figures for major trading partners, the signs of improvement in exports are more obvious.

In the first 5 months of this year, exports to the European Union increased by 6.2%, exports to the United States increased by 2.2%, exports to ASEAN increased by 4.1%, exports to Japan increased by 2.7%, and exports to Korea increased by 6.6%.

The decrease in export book data was mainly due to a 28.1% decrease in China's Hongkong export accounting statistics, and a 6.6% decrease in China's Taiwan export accounting statistics. This decline is mainly due to the compression of import and export false reports.

While the overall situation of exports is improving, some trends should also be paid enough attention to.

< /p >

< p > a problem is the dual impact of RMB exchange rate depreciation on China's exports.

As the RMB exchange rate trend has long been out of the past one-way appreciation characteristics, in recent years, two-way volatility characteristics become increasingly obvious.

Theoretically, without considering other constraints and the anticipation and operation of the market participants, the two-way fluctuation of the local currency exchange rate and a certain depreciation will help to relieve the upward pressure on the cost of China's export commodities and stimulate exports.

Some analysts have suggested that since the beginning of 2014, the RMB has depreciated by 2.3%. Chinese manufacturers at the profit and loss threshold will lose their profits only by devaluing the renminbi.

< /p >

< p > the problem is that many foreign trade enterprises have greatly improved their ability to cope with the pressure of previous rising costs and the one-way appreciation of RMB. They have also carried out corresponding operations to lock in the exchange rate and evade the risk of "a" href= http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp "/a" > one-way appreciation.

The renminbi's exchange rate, which is beyond their expectation, has been depreciated in a long way, which will inevitably make their exchange rate hedging operation become a source of loss.

In actual research, this risk has made many enterprises feel bitter, and many of them are traditional labor intensive manufacturing industries, which are most sensitive to the rising cost and appreciation of the local currency.

Therefore, we should not overestimate the ability of enterprises to cope with the upward pressure of costs, nor overestimate the role of the export promotion of the devaluation of their currencies, but ignore their disturbing effects, but they can play more market functions in the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate.

< /p >

The second prominent problem is to face up to the dual nature of the change of trade pattern in P.

Over the past two years, China's foreign trade pressure has been relatively large. Meanwhile, the trend of general trade imports and exports keeps growing while the import and export of processing trade is decreasing.

In the first 5 months of this year, the general trade of China exported 2 trillion and 760 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7%, accounting for 51.5% of the total export value; imports 2 trillion and 900 billion yuan, an increase of 4.5%, accounting for 58.9% of the total import value; meanwhile, processing trade exports 2 trillion and 50 billion yuan, decreased by 4.8%, accounting for 38.3% of the total export value; imports 1 trillion and 200 billion yuan, decreased by 1 trillion and 200 billion, accounting for the total value of imports.

Regardless of other factors, the rise of general trade is theoretically a manifestation of the rise in foreign trade efficiency of a country, but in practice, the rise in general trade may come from two situations.

< /p >

< p > one can be called autonomy change.

Because of the ability of enterprises to enhance the bargaining power of the market and enhance the mode of trade, from the simple foundry mode (OEM) to the original design and manufacture mode (ODM), from processing trade to independent brand and general trade, thereby greatly enhancing their own profits in foreign trade.

< /p >

< p > Second, it can be called passive change.

In other words, enterprises do not have the ability or the right way to change the mode of trade. They are only suitable for processing trade, but the loss of order pfer leads to a decline in the proportion of processing trade.

< /p >

< p > for the above two situations, the former is what we should pursue and encourage, while the latter is our vigilance and precaution.

We need to know whether we should enhance the level of processing trade products, create our own brands, or extend the value chain, and take into account the internal and external trade. We are speaking from the whole region and the whole country level, which does not mean that all enterprises should embark on such a road at the micro level.

There are only a few of the new brands that can survive and develop every year in the new brand. Many enterprises can only have the ability to produce and process, but they do not have their own brands.

Every successful brand and every successful enterprise also has a group of supporting enterprises. Only such a system can be flexible and integrate strength and efficiency.

Demanding that all enterprises establish their own brands, they must do general trade. Such a system must be rigid and difficult to adjust quickly.

< /p >

< p > we are not going to radically change the current international trade and international production system, but rather change the direction of the proceeds of the system.

If we say that before the pformation and upgrading of processing trade, 100% of our enterprises are going to make OEM for overseas companies and overseas brands. After pformation, if we fail to narrow the scale of a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > export < /a >, the world market share has not declined, and 95% enterprises are still doing OEM, but 80% of them are OEM for Chinese companies and Chinese brands.

In the process of pformation and upgrading of processing trade, the government should not insist that all enterprises should take the road of building their own brands. Enterprises should not choose to build their own brands, but should do their best according to their own circumstances.

Enterprises that have accumulated enough strength can choose to create their own brands in the domestic and foreign markets. For enterprises that do not yet have the corresponding strength, the government should promote and encourage them to support and OEM processing for the powerful independent brand enterprises.

We must face up to its risks and strive to solve the decline in processing trade caused by the loss of orders.

< /p >