RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations Must Have A "Bottom Line".

< p > the central bank announced that the RMB exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar was 6.1451 for 10 days. Since the central parity of RMB dropped 6.17 points in June 5th, after hitting 10 month lows, it continued to rise for three consecutive trading days, with a total appreciation of 257 points.

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< p > in January 14th this year, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar began to decline after reaching the historical peak of 6.0930. From June 3rd to 6.1710, the RMB exchange rate has depreciated to 780 basis points.

The three consecutive trading days rose, and this rally picked up strong concern in the market.

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< p > RMB a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > exchange rate < /a > from depreciating to rising reversing is mainly influenced by two factors at home and abroad.

From the perspective of domestic factors, the expansion of trade surplus in May led to an increase in demand for foreign exchange settlement, prompting the appreciation of the renminbi.

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< p > the expansion of trade surplus reflects the strong export growth of China, which has changed the weakening situation for a long time.

This is the result of the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate and China's introduction of a series of micro stimulus policies and encouraging the export policy.

However, exchange rate is a double-edged sword.

The depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is conducive to the promotion of exports, while the export expansion brings the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "trade surplus" less than /a increase, which makes the appreciation pressure of RMB increase, and thus restraining exports.

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< p > < < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > International Factor < /a > analysis, the ECB suddenly implemented a super loose monetary policy with negative interest rate overnight. The depreciation of the euro will certainly push the RMB exchange rate to strong.

At the same time, it has been reported that the scale of RMB pactions increased by 327% in the US and other countries in the world in April, and a large number of US companies switched to using renminbi to pay for imports from China.

The enlargement of the demand for RMB also prompted the RMB exchange rate to strengthen.

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< p > from the current situation, the sudden strengthening of the RMB exchange rate will do more harm than good to China's steady growth.

China's downward pressure on the economy has increased, and steady growth is at a critical stage. Once the export of one of the three carriages is affected by the appreciation of the exchange rate, it will return to the doldrums.

Exporting chains at critical times is not what policy makers would like to see.

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The sudden increase in the RMB exchange rate (P) reflects the increasing complexity of international monetary policy and exchange rate trend, which poses new challenges to China's monetary policy and exchange rate policy.

The European Central Bank has implemented the super loose monetary policy dominated by negative interest rates, making the euro exchange rate lower; the US economy is recovering strongly, the unemployment rate is decreasing, inflation is at a low level, the Federal Reserve is gradually withdrawing from the ultra loose monetary policy, and the rate hike is expected to be higher, and the US dollar exchange rate rate is basically established.

This makes China's monetary policy and exchange rate policy in a dilemma.

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Under the dilemma of P, the RMB exchange rate is only centered on China's economic fundamentals and serves the steady growth of China's economy.

From the perspective of steady growth, it is not the best choice to revalue the RMB exchange rate.

Not only that, if the RMB exchange rate goes back to the appreciation channel, it will not only be harmful to China's exports, but will also lead to the international hot money entering China in a big way, pushing up the risk of asset bubbles in China again.

It will be very dangerous to push up the risk of bubble in the economic downward channel.

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The main drawback of the rapid depreciation of RMB P is that it is not conducive to adjusting the economic structure, the trade imbalance will continue, and the international trade frictions will increase.

At the same time, it is not conducive to promoting the internationalization of RMB.

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The rapid rise or derogate of RMB P is not the best policy choice.

We should give the market a stable expectation of RMB exchange rate movements.

This is the best way for China's export enterprises.

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< p > I believe that in the future, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will fluctuate above 1 yuan to 6 yuan, and "6" is the bottom line of the exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar.

In the "6" above, the depreciation rate will not be great, and the appreciation will not be too high.

The stable trend of the small fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate above the "bottom line" is expected to help promote China's exports and block the arbitrage of the RMB exchange rate.

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