Li Keqiang'S Zero Tolerance Helps The Stock Market

Premier Li Keqiang has already "clapped the table" for the lack of policy implementation. Is it necessary to be so angry? The reason is probably not that the real economy is in a severe situation, but that the implementation and effectiveness of policies have been compromised.

This will prevent Decision makers The realization of the economic goals formulated will not only reduce the efficiency of policies, but also cause Policy resources And the key is that the real economy is difficult to operate according to the goals expected by the decision-makers.

Unlike the gross regulation, which can also be sloppy in some aspects, the refined regulation policy of Li Keqiang's economics has zero tolerance for the failure of government orders. Policy is an important tool to ensure that the real economy operates in accordance with the objectives expected by the decision-makers. If the government order is not effective or the implementation is not effective, the policy will be deformed and the economic objectives will be difficult to achieve.

For equity market For example, if the subjective initiative does not play an effective role, which makes the policy deployment difficult to play a real role, the foundation will also fall through.

Now that the table has been clapped, the market's expectation of policy action will naturally increase. The "micro stimulus" is still advancing, and the short - and long-term net investment in the open market, targeted RRR reduction and the promotion of re lending will help to form further liquidity improvement expectations, and the "money shortage" will also be difficult to realize; The clarity of IPO issuance expectations is conducive to the stability of the market.

Contingencies such as European volume broadening and A-share inclusion in MSCI will be potentially better than expected.

Although the trend in May was unsatisfactory, the hot spots in the market continued to rise one after another. Looking ahead to June, after the medium-term bad news such as IPO restart has been gradually diluted by the market, and the macro economy has entered a weak rebound, the Shanghai Stock Index is expected to have a decent rebound in June after fixing the bottom near 2000.

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Frey, a senior exchange market analyst at Rabobank, Netherlands, pointed out on Friday that the easing measures launched by the European Central Bank on Thursday were basically flat and even exceeded the previous expectations of market investors, but the impact on the euro exchange rate was limited. Since then, the euro exchange rate has not only recovered its intraday decline, but also rose to a higher level than before the decision was issued by the European Central Bank, The reason may be that investors still have doubts about the actual effect of the new easing policy.

Analysts of the bank pointed out that after several major central banks around the world have taken extraordinary easing measures for several years in a row, investors have been indifferent to their possible impact on the foreign exchange market. Previously, the quantitative easing bond purchase measures taken by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank did have a certain effect on boosting the stock market and the real estate market, but their expected goal of boosting employment and inflation rate was not achieved well on the whole, and the currency exchange rate of relevant countries did not decline significantly compared with countries without QE.

Based on the above situation, when the QE of the European Central Bank is still on paper, and the actual policy easing is still lower than that of the Bank of England, Japan and the United States, people naturally do not have too high expectations for the effect of the existing easing measures. Although the long-term refinancing operation measures of the European Central Bank will indeed have a certain effect in the process of releasing liquidity, compared with QE, its effect will still be insignificant.

Therefore, analysts pointed out that officials of the European Central Bank, including President Draghi, had repeatedly stressed that they would take various easing policy actions, which only had an impact on the euro trading action of "selling expectations and buying facts". The ability of the European Central Bank to further suppress the euro exchange rate is still limited. And before further good news from the United States emerges, it is difficult for the euro to fall sharply against the dollar again.

Analysts also emphasized that although the growth of the U.S. economy began to accelerate after the impact of the severe winter weather dissipated, the current economic performance is not enough to enable the dollar bulls to return to the market in an all-round way. Although the Federal Reserve has begun to reduce QE bond purchases month by month, it also stressed that the current low interest rate will continue to be maintained for a long time, and after the interest rate increase in the second half of 2015, the rate of interest will gradually rise very slowly, which can not be too good for the prospects of the dollar exchange rate.