Next Year, The Global Economy Is Not Optimistic.

At present, the economic recession in Europe, Asia and the United States is gradually speeding up. Although there are also some claims that there will be a recovery in the second half of next year, most economists say it is too early to talk about recovery. Economists have been surprised by the magnitude of the slowdown in China's economic growth. The gloom of small European countries, such as Spain, Italy and Greece, now seems to be hanging over all countries. The United States is more likely to enter the longest post-war recession. Many opinions agree that this situation will improve after next June. However, it is too difficult to make such predictions based on current visibility. Martin Bailey, a Brookings Institution analyst who used to be an economic adviser to the Clinton administration, said: "the key is that no one knows for sure when the situation will improve." Rich Otto, an economist at Mizuho Securities in New York, Steve Ricchiuto, is unbluntly saying that most of the so-called annual predictions are "ridiculous". Rich Otto and other economists have said whether the recovery will happen in 2009 will not be judged until May 2009. Johnson (Simon Johnson), a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund and currently a professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, can not accept the speedy recovery. Johnson believes that the current trajectory of economic recession and recovery is probably not the fast "V" font, but the long "bathtub type" at the bottom, and the smooth side of the bathtub is not so easy to climb up. We can see that the retreat of investors is also global, and people want to increase the amount of savings. Governments around the world are building their own stimulus plans, but Johnson stressed that because of the lack of sufficient funds in the expansion cycle, they are unable to provide all the necessary incentives. According to the latest media reports, Obama's economic stimulus plan will have a total size of more than 775 billion dollars. The current stimulus plan proposed by the United Kingdom and France is 0.5% and 1.5% of the GNP of the two countries, respectively. Johnson pointed out that this is obviously "very inadequate". At the same time, Germany's reaction rate will be slower, which will destroy the synergy of efforts. Johnson pointed out that "this is a new world full of danger." In recent years, European confidence surveys and activity indicators, including closely watched manufacturing and service purchasing managers' indices, are sending the same signal: the fourth quarter is deepening and spreading to the whole of Europe. In the second quarter and the third quarter of the previous year, the euro area's economy contracted 0.2%, and in the last three months of this year, economists predicted that the gross domestic product of the euro area would shrink by 0.6% or even more. "One of the most fundamental facts is that the results of short-term business surveys are rapidly deteriorating." Hillard, director of economic research at Societe Generale, pointed out that "output figures have encountered substantial difficulties. The euro area's GNP will decline by 1% in the fourth quarter, and there will be no sign of improvement in the first quarter of next year". (Brian Hilliard) He added, "I think this decline will be shown clearly from the corporate investment situation in the euro area, so it will also damage the performance of the rest of the year." Under the background of the global economic downturn, the situation of countries such as Ireland and Spain, which are contagious by the US housing crisis, can be imagined. At the same time, those countries that were thriving, such as the engine of Europe as a whole, were also in trouble. Ronis, chief European economist at Capital Economics in London, said that they expect the euro area's GNP to shrink by 1% in 2009, according to the Jonathan Loynes. The German bank's expectations are even further. They estimate that the recent disaster will shrink the euro area economy by 2.5% in 2009, which means that the fifteen countries' organization will experience the worst recession since the Second World War. German Bank economist Wall (Mark Wall) estimates that the European economy will start to recover in 2010, but the rate of recovery will also be slower than the normal level, which should be attributed to the lack of synergy among countries' policies to a certain extent. Economists estimate that under the current circumstances, although the European Central Bank is full of misgivings, they have no choice but to reduce interest rates below 2% - the first time in their ten year history. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates from 4.25% to 2.5% after a series of interest rates cut in October. In addition, German Chancellor Merkel (Angela Merkel) said shortly that Germany will set up second fiscal stimulus plans in January of next year. Germany's current plan will increase the size of public spending by 31 billion euros in the next two years. In the UK, the central bank has no choice but to move towards zero interest rates, like the US Federal Reserve, making the pound exchange rate lower to its lowest level in history. The radical Monetary Policy Commission since October has lowered the key lending rate of the Bank of England from 5% to 2%, the lowest level since its establishment in 1694. Most people believe there will be further sharp cuts next month. "The risk of a deep and prolonged recession is increasing. We expect that the monetary policy committee will lower its interest rate to 1% next year," wrote the economist at Royal Bank of Scotland. The United States is already implementing this very monetary policy, and Britain is likely to follow suit. " The prophets pointed out that the high dependence of the British economy on the banking sector involved in the storm and the suppression of the housing bubble they suffered made the local one of the most miserable regions in the global recession. In fact, the British government was the first to take some nationalization measures against its troubled banking system and launched a fiscal stimulus package of 20 billion. Mr Ronis estimates that the gross national product of the UK has shrunk by at least 1% in the fourth quarter of this year and may even reach 2.5% next year. Hillard, Societe Generale, is more optimistic about the British economy in 2009. His expectation is 1.5%. Hillard added that the UK economy will start showing signs of recovery in the second half of next year, as lending conditions finally stabilized. Despite the fact that the United States has been in recession since last December, economists say the US economy seems to show a bit of strength in recent weeks. The economic shrinkage in the last three months of this year is expected to be around 6%, and the first quarter of next year will not be much better. Most people believe that the economy will be zero growth in the third quarter of next year, and the fourth quarter will be somewhat recovered. Clinton, the former chief economist of the government, thinks that if the situation is already bottoming out, there will be a 20% chance of a startling growth in the second half of next year. Obama could not do anything about shrinking the first two quarters, but he could indeed inject confidence into the economic system and guide the latter to a turning point as soon as possible. However, Boli continued to say that if the unemployment rate rose to over 10%, the possibility of a 30% to 40% economy would be in recession throughout the year. Of course, some economists are more optimistic than Bailey. Nailov, President of Naroff Economic Advisors, said that the US business is responding rapidly to the downturn. After the first quarter of next year, if the economic situation changes, they will be in a better position. "The reaction speed of enterprises is so rapid that it can ensure that they will not cut down and cut down their plans and expenses substantially. Ricci, in Mizuho Securities's own chart, the biggest test will come soon next year, because the market will pay close attention to the trend of the Fed and see if they will print banknotes as promised. "The Fed must play its role, otherwise the market situation may deteriorate further." Overall, Ricci Otto is skeptical of any kind of prediction. The recent market downturn is so deep that some things have undergone permanent changes. He pointed out that "those more than 40 years old now believe that they are going to work until they are eighty to retire. Can we expect the world to return overnight to twenty years of savings? In the eyes of economists, Asia's 2009 is also hard to be optimistic. Song Yuansun, an economist at the Martin Smith business school in California University, said, "the overall situation in Asia is very worrying." "For a period of time, people seem to think that the Asian economy can always be independent, but now it has been proved to be a myth." Japan is in deep mire of recession. South Korea's luck is good. It will achieve 2% growth this year, and China's growth rate will be significantly lower than 6%. Setese, Brad Setser, a Chinese expert at the New York diplomatic Council, said that the impact of Global trade weakness on China's economy is only showing up initially, and this pressure will run through the whole year of 2009. "The latest data in November have been greatly disappointing." He added that in addition, China's domestic economic cycle seems to be changing. "The pace of downturn is somewhat surprising." Economists are still very worried about protectionism. Although G20 promised to cooperate last month to avoid protectionism, international trade analysts have found some early signs of protectionism. If China takes action to protect its export sector, it will probably lead to a hostile reaction in the US Parliament. Editor in charge: Yang Jing