Bank Sales And Foreign Exchange Surplus Decreased By More Than 75%

In the case of RMB devaluation and unilateral appreciation expectations were broken, cross-border capital inflows slowed down in April. Yesterday, the State Administration of foreign exchange statistics show that in April 2014, the foreign exchange surplus of banks was only 9 billion 700 million US dollars, down by 75% over the March US $40 billion 200 million.

　　 RMB Two-way volatility dominates

Yesterday, the State Administration of foreign exchange statistics showed that in April 2014, the bank settled foreign exchange of 150 billion 600 million US dollars, selling foreign exchange $140 billion 900 million, and selling foreign exchange surplus by US $9 billion 700 million. In 1~4 months, the accumulated foreign exchange surplus was 168 billion 900 million US dollars. Compared with the US $40 billion 200 million sales surplus in March, the surplus in April decreased significantly, a drop of more than 75%, indicating that cross-border capital inflows slowed down.

In this regard, China Merchants Bank financial market Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at the Ministry, said that this reflects changes in market sentiment, from the expectation of unilateral appreciation to the current change in bilateral expectations. "Although the depreciation in April was small, it did not appreciate, which broke many expectations that the RMB exchange rate would appreciate after the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate. Therefore, the balance of foreign exchange and market mentality has been balanced.

Data show that the RMB exchange rate in March. dollar The spot exchange rate depreciated by about 1.13% in April and depreciated by 0.68% in the year to 3%.

　　 Corporate risk aversion increased significantly

It is worth noting that with the two-way fluctuation of the RMB becoming market oriented, the risk aversion behavior of enterprises has also increased significantly. A joint-stock bank trader told reporters that at present, corporate risk aversion and bank related hedge products have increased significantly. Many companies that haven't done hedge before are now taking the initiative to avoid risks. Generally, they will choose hedging products within one year, including forward settlement, exchange and options. "As far as our bank is concerned, the volume of hedging products has increased significantly, and other industries are also estimated to increase."

Zhang Ji, director of the Ministry of foreign trade of the Ministry of Commerce, also pointed out at yesterday's press conference that the RMB exchange rate has now shifted from unilateral appreciation to two-way floating, and enterprises are gradually adapting to the change of the RMB exchange rate.

Yesterday, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.2384. Liu Dongliang predicts that in the medium term, the RMB exchange rate will remain weak. After all, the macroeconomic situation is not very good at present. "It is estimated that the bottom line of the spot rate of RMB against the US dollar is near 6.3, and the effect or appearance of the government's Micro stimulus measures at the end of the two quarter. Generally speaking, the probability of appreciation in the three quarter will be relatively large."