Institutional Dividend PK Expansion Pressure Market Is Hard To Get Rid Of Downtrend

< p > < strong > Shenyin Wanguo < /strong > /p >

< p > < strong > system < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > dividend > /a > PK expansion pressure amplitude will increase < /strong > /p >

The short term effect of < p > "new country nine" is more neutral, and the long-term impact is also seen in the implementation.

As for the "nine new countries", we think: 1) at this time, some opinions issued by the State Council on promoting the healthy development of the capital market are, on the one hand, indicating that the strategic position of the capital market in the overall deepening reform is more prominent. On the other hand, the issuance of the documents should show that the government departments have reached a consensus on the major issues of the capital market.

On this basis, the system construction is expected to be promoted rapidly, which is a good thing for market development.

2) the last "state nine" was released in January 31, 2004, and then welcomed the institutional dividend of the split share structure reform, which also ushered in the most spectacular rise of A shares.

Ten years later, nine countries also set off institutional dividend expectations. Some say it is mixed ownership. Some say it is a registration system. We believe that first, there will be institutional dividends, but it depends on implementation. Second, the larger background of the last round of stock market rises is still the economy, which has been advancing vigorously after the end of 2004, plus loose liquidity.

However, under the current economic background and pformation risk of "three phase superposition", the stock market does not have the conditions to rise.

3) from the beginning of 2004, "nine countries" put forward the solution to the issue of split share structure and started the pilot project at the end of April 2005, and then fully promoted in September. It took nearly two years. This "new country nine" is also a programmatic document, and it is still a short time before the relevant rules are promulgated and implemented.

We think: first, several big directions of the capital market have already been clear, it is difficult to have more new patterns, the key lies in implementation; second, the State Council documents are required to list the implementation details, expect a bit too high; third, there are still many bright spots, and some will also be fulfilled in the near future.

However, under the extremely weak market mentality, it is difficult to rely on one document to boost market confidence.

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< p > weak fundamentals, loose expectations are coming back, but short-term contradictions are still being restarted in IPO, and expansion pressure needs to be digested.

1) the export accident has picked up, but the Canton Fair is not ideal; the PPI has narrowed down, but CPI has declined sharply; the basic situation is still weak, from the tentative relaxation of the local property market to the full scale of the call, and the easing is expected to rise again.

However, the market is cautious and there is no big breakthrough in short-term policy.

2) the pace of pre disclosure has gradually been adapted, and the impact of this IPO restart may be less than January, but the pressure of expansion still needs to be digested.

3) last week the index was less than 40 points, and the amplitude may expand this week.

Below is still looking at 2000 points of support, focusing on 2040 points (high points), 2060 points (20 and 60 days) and 2080 points (half a line) at the top. The Shanghai stock index's core fluctuation interval is 2000-2100 points.

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< p > < strong > Haitong Securities < /strong > < /p >

< p > < strong > < a > href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > > market environment > /a > from black to cloudy > /strong > /p >

< p > bottom thinking stability: (1) from Prime Minister Li Keqiang's address at the world economic forum Africa summit, the policy orientation of management's steady progress has not changed.

(2) since April, Wuxi, Tongling, Nanning, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Zhengzhou and other places have introduced the relaxation measures of the property market, whether they will spread to other cities in the future, whether there are other stable growth policies to be observed. But after the fall of 4 months, market sentiment is expected to stabilize.

2A corporate bond -3A corporate bond yields have been highly correlated with stock indexes in the past two years, indicating that the recent fall in the index indicates that the bond market risk premium has dropped.

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< p > local highlights still exist: (1) the "new country nine" focuses on institutional construction, which is beneficial to the long term and has limited impact on the short-term market.

(2) in addition to the "nine new countries", the May event highlights the activity of the market, such as the annual stock brokers Innovation Conference held on Friday, the stock options in the preparation of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and the convening of various industry conferences, all of which are the focus of market concern.

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< p > coping strategies: market environment from dark clouds to cloudy, structural opportunities, can be directed attack.

Since 2012, the shock market has come from the macro economy stepping into a "flat cycle". Under the guidance of the bottom line, the probability of breaking down is low.

However, there is no strong stimulus policy and IPO will open the gate. The market trend is still difficult. The index rebound is highly limited, and targeted structural opportunities such as railways, military industry, medicine and other leading growth stocks.

In addition, under the background of IPO gate opening, we can plan to fight new.

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< p > < strong > < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > CITIC Securities < /a > < /strong > /p >

< p > < strong > still need to be cautious. < /strong > /p >

< p > the real economic data released this week may be weaker than market expectations: on the one hand, production capacity is not stable enough under the influence of capacity reduction and inventory cycle. It is predicted that industrial added value will be slightly weaker than market expectations in April. On the other hand, the April investment data expected by the market underestimate the downward impact of real estate investment growth.

We believe that the superposition effect of the micro stimulation policy in the field of infrastructure investment is limited, and the effect is delayed, which is not enough to hedge the downward pressure on real estate development investment in April and even the whole two quarter.

Concerned about this week's economic data released after the executive session of the State Council, the approximate rate will continue to carry out "micro stimulation".

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On the night when the State Council issued the "nine new countries in the capital market", the Securities Industry Association announced three supporting measures for IPO, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced the revision of IPO's new market value allocation method, which means that IPO will be restarted soon. P

The "nine new countries" is an outline document of China's capital market reform in the future. Based on the long term, it will be beneficial to the capital market for a long time, but the short-term impact is neutral.

In addition, we think that in the next ten days of June, we think that the central bank will first choose open market operation or SLO, SLF and other reversible monetary policy adjustment tools.

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< p > overall, the weak balance of the week and the risk premium will continue to suppress the market this week, and the newly implemented policy is an important observation variable.

Short term market is still in the downstream channel of shock, and the market still needs to be cautious.

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