RMB Exchange Rate Trend Stronger

P today, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.2280, an increase of 63 basis points from the closing day of the previous trading session, which is nearly 400 basis points lower than last week's low point.

On the 4 trading day of this week, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar showed a stronger trend, which contrasted sharply with the trend of last week.

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< p > last week, the RMB < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > exchange rate < /a > weakened for several days, and hit a low of 6.2676 in April 30.

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< p > from the international situation, the weakening of the US dollar has provided some support for the RMB exchange rate rebound.

This week, the US dollar showed a weak trend, dropping to a low of 79.1 in the last 7 months.

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< p > the industry believes that this may be related to the adequacy of the US dollar supply.

Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin securities, said that the improvement of US economic data did not bring the strength of the recent a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" dollar index < /a >. With the improvement of the quality of collateral and the improvement of economic expectations, the credit creation ability of US financial institutions is recovering, which may make the US dollar supply relatively adequate for a period of time and suppress the rise of the US dollar index.

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< p > from the domestic "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp > economic < /a > fundamentals, the April foreign trade data released in May 8th indicate that the external demand is improving, which will also help the RMB exchange rate to shake off its recent weakness.

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< p > Xu Gao, chief economist of Everbright Securities, despite the high base last year, China's exports to the three developed economies in the United States, Europe and Japan in April are still significantly higher, indicating that the positive effect of the US led global economic recovery on China's exports is growing.

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In recent years, the RMB exchange rate volatility has increased, and the crowding out effect of the arbitrage funds on the unilateral upward appreciation of RMB has been squeezed out, and the demand for buying foreign exchange has been released. In turn, it has further promoted the fluctuation of exchange rate and the outflow of funds. This is an important factor contributing to the continuous decline of RMB exchange rate before the May 1 p.

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< p > however, as China's economic growth is still relatively stable, the fundamental factors that affect cross-border capital flows have not changed fundamentally.

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< p > Guan Tao, director of the balance of Payments Division of the State Administration of foreign exchange, said recently that it is expected that the cross-border capital flows will remain a two-way shock in the future. The two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate will become a new normal.

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