The Depreciation Of The Renminbi Has Caused The "Short Dividend" Of The Garment Export Industry.

< p > > a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > export industry "short dividend" because of devaluation of RMB, analysts pointed out that whether the RMB exchange rate will enter the depreciation cycle is still open to question. Based on the uncertainty of RMB exchange rate, for foreign trade enterprises, it is possible to reduce the losses caused by unpredictable exchange rate fluctuations by properly managing exchange rate risks and locking businesses in time to avoid risks. < /p >
< p > < strong > export industry is now "short dividend" < /strong > /p >
< p > since the middle of February, the RMB has depreciated. As of March 26th, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate was 100 yuan to 614.4 yuan. From the point of view of the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, the closing price in January 14th was 6.0406, and the closing price in March 20th dropped to 6.2275. The biggest depreciation rate of RMB exchange rate has exceeded 3% this year, reaching a low level in the past year. < /p >
< p > many foreign trade enterprises have already felt the welfare brought about by the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. "In the past, the RMB has maintained a long-term appreciation trend, and the cost pressure of product export is very large. Only when the price rises 15% to 20%, can the manufacturer have profit. Now that the RMB has depreciated, the price of the export orders is more flexible, and the orders will be more and the profits will be improved. In Zhuhai, Guangdong, Mr. Lee, who manages air conditioning export business, feels that the continuous fall of the RMB against the US dollar is a heartening news for small and micro foreign trade enterprises like him. "Recently, everyone's confidence in foreign trade has risen again in the circle of friends, and the monthly export business earned more than tens of thousands of yuan compared with last year's two months." < /p >
< p > a lot of foreign trade enterprises in Zhejiang and Guangdong are engaged in garment industry such as a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile "/a" and household appliances, and so on. Foreign trade enterprises have gradually reflected that after being restricted by foreign trade environment and cost pressure, SMEs in these industries have difficulty in running and even reach the edge of bankruptcy. The devaluation market gave them a "breathing space". If the European and American orders are calculated, the continued depreciation of the RMB will increase the profits of these enterprises 1%-2%. < /p >
< p > according to industry analysis, the continuous depreciation of the RMB has obvious stimulative effect on export volume, for example, some textile and garment, leather a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > shoes < /a > labor intensive export enterprises, the profit rate itself is not high, and the fluctuation of export exchange rate will directly affect profits. In addition, the depreciation of RMB will also be beneficial to the upstream raw material market, for example, the increase of export scale of machinery and household appliances will indirectly lead to the demand of domestic steel market, to a certain extent, it will help to digest excess steel production capacity. < /p >
< p > however, the "dividend effect" brought about by the depreciation of the RMB is still very limited for some foreign trade enterprises, and it can not help solve the practical difficulties faced by the export enterprises, or it may not prevent the decline of the export of some industries. According to Xiao Feng, deputy general manager of Alibaba, micro-blog, the export mode of foreign trade enterprises is still too traditional. The mode of processing trade has not changed, and the cost of labor, logistics, financing and other aspects has been rising. Many foreign trade enterprises are not competitive enough, and profits continue to fall. < /p >
< p > < strong > foreign trade orders highlight "short term" < /strong > < /p >.
"P >" now that the pace of exchange rate changes is large, many companies dare not take too long forward. If the size of the order is too large, it means that the risk of exchange rate fluctuation and the loss of profits will also be great. Zhang Sheng, the head of a shoe factory in Huizhou, Guangdong, said that since the depreciation of the RMB did not become a trend, and if the exchange rate fluctuated in two directions, if the exchange rate bottomed out again, the enterprises would lose the exchange rate difference and the export volume would be large. < /p >
< p > many foreign trade enterprises believe that if the RMB exchange rate expands in the long run, the judgement of the exchange rate trend of the enterprises will be very important. Once the miscarriage of justice is made, it will cause unbearable losses. "Now the profit margin of foreign trade orders is very limited. If we add the factors of exchange rate fluctuations, we will have to consider the length of orders. Generally speaking, it usually takes about 3 months from receiving orders to receiving the final payment. If the letter of credit is settled, the time will be longer and the impact of exchange rate fluctuation will be greater. " Xiao Zhou, who is engaged in the export of cement machinery in Zhejiang, said. < /p >
< p > it is understood that, due to the increase in exchange rate volatility, many foreign trade enterprises are inclined to take orders for short time and small export orders, mainly for half a month or a month, in order to avoid the risk of settlement. As for some companies that signed large contracts a few years ago, the exchange rate decline did not bring any real additional benefits to them because they had already locked the exchange rate with the banks ahead of schedule. < /p >
< p > a number of foreign trade enterprises reflect that at present, exchange rate fluctuations are frequent. In fact, they also challenge enterprises' ability to quote quotas and foreign exchange risk management capabilities. Zhou pointed out that in the past, accustomed to the market background of long-term appreciation of RMB, enterprises often adopt the way of forward settlement in the quoted price, and also reserve part of the profit space. But nowadays, the depreciation of RMB and the choice of real time settlement or long-term settlement must be considered carefully. Xiao Feng said that if the customer considers depreciation to be the norm, the price competition or even the price reduction will be carried out with the Chinese supplier on the quoted price, which also tests the ability of the enterprise to quote in international negotiations. < /p >
"P >" near the Canton Fair, many foreign trade enterprises will need to reconsider new quotations according to current market conditions and exchange rate factors. This is very different from previous years, so we have to negotiate with customers again. Zhou Sheng said that for most foreign trade enterprises, the stability of the exchange rate trend is really good for the long-term operation of enterprises. < /p >
< p > < strong > the exchange rate trend is still different. < /strong > < /p >
< p > the exchange rate market wind direction transformation, coupled with the slowdown in China's macro-economic growth, has led many market participants to disagree on the trend of RMB. On the one hand, some analysts believe that China's macroeconomic situation is not optimistic, credit risk concerns are deepening, and the possibility of continued devaluation of the RMB trend is greater. On the other hand, some agencies regard the recent depreciation market as the central bank [micro-blog] initiative to increase two-way fluctuation of exchange rate management, and the long-term appreciation trend of RMB remains unchanged. < /p >
Goldman Sachs Group released a report that the risk of China's economic slowdown is not yet fully reflected, and it may take some time to see the rise of the renminbi. The report points out that the recent weak economic data helps to explain the continued easing of China's financial environment, including the decline in the 7 day repo rate and the move to derogate the renminbi. China's industrial output in the 1-2 months is almost zero, which is one of the lowest records since the global financial crisis. Before the recovery of production activities, the renminbi was hard to see a marked upward trend. < /p >
< p > the Deutsche Bank's report shows that the RMB exchange rate has weakened sharply recently, and this year it has been devaluated. This is because the Central Bank of China recently lowered the RMB exchange rate through the intermediate price, which aims to remind the market that the RMB has the risk of two-way fluctuation. At the same time, it is intended to narrow the exchange rate spread between the two markets in the offshore and offshore markets, and prepare for the expansion of the RMB exchange rate floating zone later this year. Based on the assumption that China's export growth will accelerate this year, we will continue to maintain a forecast of RMB appreciation against the US dollar this year. We expect that the spot rate of RMB will soon be stable in the near future, 2%-2.5%. < /p >
The trend of RMB P exchange rate is uncertain, which also makes foreign exchange enterprises risk management of exchange rate more difficult. According to Xiao Feng, in order to avoid exchange losses caused by foreign exchange fluctuations, some foreign trade enterprises will lock forward foreign exchange through forward settlement and foreign exchange business. "The threshold for foreign exchange lockout is $1 million in the past, and small and medium-sized enterprises can choose to buy this kind of business to prevent the risk of exchange rate fluctuations." The term forward settlement and foreign exchange business refers to a business that determines the exchange rate before the actual exchange balance occurs. A foreign trade enterprise may conclude a forward contract for sale and purchase through negotiation with the bank, and stipulate that the Renminbi shall be exchanged against foreign exchange currencies, amount, exchange rate and delivery date according to the contract price in the future delivery date. < /p >
< p > industry insiders suggest that enterprises need to strengthen their risk management capabilities such as < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > foreign exchange < /a > risk management, such as paying a certain margin to participate in forward selling and selling business to avoid risks even if they are misjudged. When foreign trade enterprises take part in quotations, they should consider the scope of the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and consider the agreement on exchange rate risk with customers when necessary, so as to reduce the pressure of business operation. In addition, banks also need to cultivate the sensitivity of foreign trade enterprises to exchange rate changes, and timely guide enterprises' export collection methods and time points for foreign exchange settlement and sale, so that enterprises can adjust in time. < /p >