Exchange Rate Marketization Is A Long Way To Go, Monetary Policy Or Adjustment.

< p > based on the prediction of the steady recovery of European and American economies, China's exports will also improve slightly this year compared with last year.

On the other hand, in 2013, China's foreign exchange reserves rose again, with an annual growth rate of US $510 billion, and the total foreign exchange reserves reached US $3 trillion and 820 billion at the end of last year.

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< p > secondly, the downward pressure on China's economy is now controllable and even has the ingredients of active reform.

In the context of policymakers repeatedly emphasizing the bottom line thinking of macroeconomic regulation and control, it is reasonable to expect that when the economic growth rate falls to the 7%-7.5% interval, the growth rate policy will be launched in a timely manner, and the growth probability of the 7% bottom line can be maintained.

The 7% growth rate of GDP is considerable in any region of the world, and can be a strong support for its currency.

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The continued existence of the "P surplus" and the accumulation of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > foreign exchange reserve < /a >, the gradual promotion of RMB capital account convertibility, and the promotion of RMB's international orientation in cross border trade and investment all form an effective support for the RMB value. The Bank of China judges that the renminbi still has a certain appreciation.

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< p > expansion is another big step in the reform of China's exchange rate system. "This is an important step in the marketization of China's exchange rate. The central bank will introduce more floats and finally achieve the RMB exchange rate dominated by the market."

Louis Kuijs indicates.

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< p > but this does not mean that the marketization of exchange rate is near.

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< p > macro analysis of Founder Securities, Yang Yang believes that the future exchange rate reform is still a long way to go.

Expanding the fluctuation range of RMB spot exchange rate is a small step in the process of exchange rate reform, and there is still a long way from the full marketization of exchange rate.

To achieve full marketization of the RMB exchange rate, on the one hand, we need to cancel the fluctuation limit of the spot exchange rate relative to the middle price. On the other hand, we need to form a market-oriented pricing mechanism for the middle price, rather than the central bank to decide the middle price.

These two aspects are the decisive key to exchange rate reform.

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< p > "as long as < a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "> RMB < /a > pricing has not been given to market forces, the change of RMB will continue to be in the hands of policymakers.

The main constraint of the renminbi is not the volatility of the trading price, but the central bank's central parity control. "

Louis Kuijs said.

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Behind P, floating is more free than exchange rate freedom, which will bring interest rate freedom, but this is not easy to detect.

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< p > "freer floating of exchange rate will enable the central bank to push higher interest rates to a greater degree of freedom of the market, and higher interest rates are necessary measures to control loans to reduce bubbles, but will hurt normal investment."

Tom Orlik analysis.

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< p > Zhang Jing, a researcher at Huatai Securities, pointed out that after the expansion of the RMB's fluctuation, the liquidity state supported by the combination of "exchange rate depreciation + loose money" is not sustainable.

Then, the relative stability of monetary level will suffer.

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< p >, but Fan Yangyang also pointed out that, "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "> exchange rate > /a > more freedom will not increase the possibility of the recent central bank's reduction.

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< p > at present, there is a higher voice in the market, and the economic data is significantly lower than expected, which has become the main argument for supporting the reduction of the market.

In addition, the last time the central bank expanded the spot exchange rate in the month or so after the expansion of the RMB exchange rate, it implemented a quasi reduction tool (the expansion of spot exchange rate in April 16, 2012 and the reduction in May 18, 2012), which may further lead to the market's expected reduction in the near future.

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< p > for this reason, Founder Securities believes that the above reasons need to be treated differently.

On the one hand, the central intention of the central bank was to aim at the contraction of liquidity (the main hedge against foreign exchange holdings), and the current central bank dominates the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in order to combat the inflow of arbitrage hot money. The logic seems to be more credible and the interest rate is at a low level. No matter from the central bank's dominant intention or marginal utility, the necessity of lowering the quota is not large; on the other hand, the economic data in the first two months of this year are much lower than expected, and there is also a certain degree of distortion effect caused by the Spring Festival factor. From the perspective of high-frequency economic data, there may be some improvement in March, and the possibility that the economic growth rate will fall below the government's bottom line in the first quarter is unlikely.

Comprehensive judgment, the possibility of the recent central bank to reduce the accuracy is still not large.

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