The Center Of Gravity Of Zheng Cotton Will Move Down To 1.6-1.8 Million Yuan / Ton.

< p > because of the huge inventory of national cotton reserves and the policy of Xinjiang cotton direct subsidy pilot project, the 1405 contract of cotton futures contract began to oscillate downward at the end of 2, and fell to the level of 18700 yuan / ton of cotton futures in August 2010.

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< p > relative to cotton, PTA futures prices are mainly affected by the downturn in the downstream consumption, continuing the weak trend from the end of 2013 to the present, and the abnormal stock price of pet stocks is 1405 PTA futures contract price.

In February, the price of PTA futures 1405 contracts fell unilaterally, dropping and falling again.

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< p >, it can be seen that, whether it is "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "Guo" /a "10 million tons of cotton reserves, or downstream polyester stocks in January, from the low point in previous years to a high point, they were losing profits in cotton and PTA futures in the same period, which led to two decline in both the market and the textile related market.

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< p > enter February, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > zhengmian < /a > main force 1405 contract price center shifted from the previous 19800 yuan / ton to 20000/ ton, then maintained two weeks, and broke through 20 thousand yuan after continuing to oscillate.

At the end of 2, at the end of the month, the price plunged sharply and closed to the spot price. Following the market rumors, the direct subsidy policy for cotton growing in Xinjiang was released, and the 1405 contract of zhengmian main force went down all the way. In February, 28 days, it hit the biggest decline in single days in recent years.

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< p > with the slow pace of acquisition and storage and the approaching deadline, the support for cotton prices will weaken in the afternoon.

But because of the shortage of warehouse receipts, the main 1405 contract's rising market is difficult to achieve at present.

In order to prevent the risk of warehouse receipts, in 2013, Zheng merchants adopted restrictive measures such as raising margin and so on. It is estimated that this year's regulation of this issue will not be relaxed.

Therefore, it is recommended that the 1405 contract be held cautiously at 20000 yuan / ton.

For the 2014/2015 contract, Xinjiang cotton direct subsidy pilot scheme has a negative impact on cotton prices, and the period price is significantly higher than the current main contract.

In the later period, we must pay close attention to the benchmark price of direct subsidies.

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< p > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > PTA < /a > futures main contract 1405 showed a unilateral downward trend in February.

As international crude oil prices continue to fall, and PX supply is adequate, the cost of support collapse for PTA, in a longer period will have a negative impact on PTA futures prices.

In addition, as PTA enters the off-season of consumption, the inventory of downstream polyester enterprises remains unusually high, and the decline of PTA demand leads to a decline in PTA futures prices.

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< p > based on the analysis of the fundamentals, we believe that the probability of PTA futures remaining weak in March is larger.

First of all, the upstream crude oil entered the consumption off-season in March, it is difficult to have more favorable factors to help it rise. For the direct upstream PX of PTA, the price may continue to be weak because of the sufficient supply and the probability of crude oil weakness later.

Secondly, at present, the spot price of PTA has fallen repeatedly and there is no sign of stabilization. The price of PTA futures is bound to be suppressed.

Finally, in the downstream market, the increase in pet stocks shows that the supply of the market is relatively adequate. Although the stocking market of polyester enterprises for summer wear is open in March, PTA prices are hard to get the boost from demand when the stock of polyester stocks is relatively adequate.

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< p > core judgment: the balance factor of "the expected reduction of cotton production in the mainland" and the negative factors of "direct subsidy + high inventory" are the most important factors.

Direct subsidy implementation is expected to have little effect on the price of 2013/2014 futures contracts, while the price of 2014/2015 futures contracts will be directly affected by the direct subsidy policy, and the expected price will shift to 16000~18000 yuan / ton.

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