2014 Year Of Viscose Staple Fiber Industry Is Expected To Usher In "New Year"

　　 Work rate is expected to exceed 90%

According to the analysts of Anxin securities, the viscose industry experienced 12.8% and 13% growth in 2010 and 2011 after the new production capacity was released. But in 2014, the industry's new capacity grew by only 260 thousand tons, with a growth rate of 6.7%. The slowdown in capacity growth is conducive to changing the supply and demand pattern of the industry. It is estimated that the industry will start operating at above 95%. In the context of rising capacity utilization and high position, the bargaining power of viscose enterprises will gradually strengthen.

For this calculation result, industry experts believe that the normal production and maintenance is still needed, so 95% of the operating rate should not be achieved, but 9 or less. While supply growth is slowing down, downstream demand is more optimistic. Affected by factors such as anti dumping of upstream dissolving pulp, the overall export demand declined in 2013, and this year, US cotton prices continue to rise, exports are expected to grow, and domestic demand is also improving.

The research center of the CSI said that the global cotton stocks were basically digested except China, while the planting area of the new planting year in China and the United States must have declined. The magnitude of the decline depends on the US March forecast report, which is reflected in the continuous rise of US cotton prices.

Sanyou chemical (600409, stock bar) people also told the downstream of viscose. Spin clothing The inventory of the industry has ended, and it has entered the replenishment stage. Yarn and non-woven fabrics And other direct downstream capacity expansion is relatively fast, this year viscose market there is a certain supply gap is more clear.

　 The demand season is coming.

At present, the textile manufacturers downstream of viscose have not fully resumed their work, and the whole is in the stage of resuming work. Therefore, it is hard to see the further price increase in the short term. But insiders pointed out that the demand season is gradually coming, and the continued price increase of viscose is also worth looking forward to. The market situation is expected to get better and better, and it will be more optimistic before May.

It is understood that the current Viscose The stock of the industry is only 10 days, far below the normal level of 20 days, while the average market price is about 12 thousand and 900 yuan / ton, which is not large compared with the 12 thousand and 500 yuan / ton cost line of the first tier manufacturers. The current operating rate of the industry is about 85%.

With the improvement of the viscose market, the profit expectations of the relevant companies of Australian Ocean Technology (002172, stock bar), Sanyou chemical industry, Nanjing chemical fiber (600889, stock bar) and other related companies are expected to improve. Learned from Sanyou chemical industry, the company is optimistic about this year's Viscose market, compared with other companies, the company's capacity in the 20%-30% raw materials are not affected by pulp anti-dumping, with cost advantages. In addition, the downstream demand for bamboo Dyer products is better, inventory is relatively low, and the 30 thousand ton line has been transformed and waiting for further expansion of future demand.

The price of dissolving pulp from the main raw material of viscose is expected to continue to decline in the future, which will further increase the profit margins of viscose. Guotai Junan analyst believes that the high profit of foreign dissolving pulp industry attracts pulp manufacturers to transfer large quantities of dissolving pulp, which will be concentrated in the second half of 2013 to the first half of 2015. The price of dissolving pulp will continue to go down in the next two years. Data show that in the past 2013-2015 years, 2 million 470 thousand tons of foreign dissolving pulp manufacturers have newly built, upgraded or converted production capacity, and three years of capacity growth has increased by 35%.