Interpretation Of The Reasons For The Rise Or Fall Of RMB

According to the news of the central bank website, in January 13, 2014, the RMB reported a "median" price of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" to us dollar < /a > 6.0950, and again hit the new high since 2005. "P".

Experts believe that the RMB exchange rate appreciation trend will not be reduced. This year, breaking 6 is a big probability event.

The unilateral appreciation of the renminbi has brought several unhappy worries.

< /p >

< p > this is certainly a good thing for the Chinese who study and travel abroad.

However, for domestic export enterprises or individuals, they are not feeling the benefits of RMB appreciation, but they are depressed by the depreciation of the renminbi.

Data show that in 2005, China's broad money stock (M2) was less than 30 trillion yuan. In April 2013, this figure reached 1 million points. By the end of 11 in 2013, the balance of M2 had reached 107 trillion and 930 billion yuan.

China's potential inflation pressure can be imagined more than 3 times that of the eight years of the exchange rate reform.

< /p >

< p >, what causes a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > RMB > /a > internal derogatory rise? < /p >

< p > first, the eight years of foreign exchange reform is the eight year of unilateral appreciation of RMB. It is also the fastest eight years of China's export growth and foreign investment.

As the Chinese government adopts the system of foreign exchange settlement and sale, it is to buy the renminbi to purchase the US dollar that flows into China, and the more the US dollar flows into the central bank, the quicker the base money will be put into it.

< /p >

< p > it is precisely because China's economy is heavily dependent on exports and provides a large number of cheap goods for the European and American countries. In addition, the agricultural products (7.83, -0.12, -1.51%) in the European and American countries have been completely modernized, so the prices of the European and American countries are relatively stable.

But because China exports a lot of goods, it is a greenish greenback that does not bring material wealth.

So China's 1 yuan can correspond to the value of 1 yuan, and now, because exports are wasting a lot of resources, 1 yuan can only correspond to goods that are worth less than 0.5 yuan.

< /p >

< p > moreover, the inflow of hot money is also the culprit of the renminbi's derogatory rise.

Although China's central bank has declared that the RMB exchange rate is based on a basket of currencies, the weight of all currencies is not clear. In fact, the exchange rate of the renminbi is operated by the central bank.

In order to make the renminbi appreciate, the western countries have been manipulating the currency manipulation to coerce the RMB exchange rate to appreciate continuously. The unilateral appreciation of the renminbi is strongly anticipated. With the introduction of the quantitative easing QE series of the Federal Reserve, a large number of hot money flows into China, while boosting domestic prices, it also boosts the domestic price bubbles.

< /p >

< p > finally, the imbalance between China's a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" and the economic structure < /a > is also the reason for the appreciation of RMB against internal depreciation.

Since the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has carried out the four round of QE. The Chinese government has also launched a four trillion investment plan. The local government has launched a massive infrastructure construction project. This has made the bank's successive round of credit leap in recent years, and the M2 growth rate has never been able to fall to 13%.

The economic growth brought about by high investment, high liquidity and high debt is not only unsustainable, but also worrying quality, and it also brings potential hyperinflation. The real purchasing power of RMB has dropped sharply in recent years.

< /p >

< p > Europe and the United States currency has gone to the whole world and has shifted the inflation to the emerging economies. China's excessive base money and excessive expansion of credit scale will cause the domestic people to feel that RMB is becoming more and more worthless. Therefore, it is the common people of China that the value of RMB rises to the inside.

If we want to let the RMB lift its foreign valuation and derogate its fate, we must change the way of economic development, and reform the exchange rate formation mechanism, so that the RMB exchange rate will float freely under the market's role.

< /p >