High Exchange Rate: High And Low Foreign Trade Imports And Exports

　 The dynamic RMB exchange rate is even higher.

Statistics show that since the beginning of the year, RMB It has risen 2.53% against the US dollar, becoming one of Asia's most powerful currencies this year. In fact, since December, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar has risen. In December 4th and December 6th, two new exchange rates have been set up, including 6.13 in December 6th and 6.1232 in December 6th. In December, the 9 daily 6.1130 broke through the 6.12 pass.

However, the pace of appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has not stopped. In December 10th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1114, up 16 basis points from the previous trading day. In December 11th, the interbank foreign exchange market's central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1100, a record of 4 consecutive days.

　 Reasons for economic stabilization and arbitrage capital entry

Speaking of the reason why the renminbi has entered the upsurge of appreciation after entering the December, Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank, said that since the beginning of this year, the continuous influx of arbitrage capital has led to the accelerated appreciation of RMB. The three quarter economic data show that China's economy has been steadily improving, which is further pushing up the appreciation expectation, leading to more inflow of arbitrage capital.

The reporter noted that in order to curb the false trade financing behavior without the background of real transactions and prevent cross-border flows of abnormal foreign exchange funds, the State Administration of foreign exchange issued the circular on improving the foreign exchange management of banking trade financing in December 7th. Lu commissar pointed out that the foreign exchange administration issued a document to crack down on false trade. On the one hand, because of the high foreign exchange reserves, China's exports were relatively weak, indicating that the false trade was on the rise. On the other hand, because of the large spread between China and foreign countries, some overseas institutions used the interest spread arbitrage to induce hot money to flow into the country in large quantities.

Xie Yaxuan, director of macro research at China Merchants Securities Research and development center, told an interview with a Commercial Daily reporter that the main reason for the appreciation of the renminbi is the influence of market supply and demand factors and the intensification of foreign exchange inflow. Another reason is that the central bank loosened its control over the middle price of the RMB exchange rate, paving the way for exchange rate reform in the first half of next year, and expanding the fluctuation range of exchange rate, so as to enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate.

　 Influence

Export: some enterprises reduce three to 50%

Bai Ming, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce, said that the pressure of RMB appreciation has caused great pressure on enterprises, and the real effective exchange rate has risen sharply. At the same time, the currency of emerging market countries, which is the driving force of China's export growth, has depreciated. exchange rate Forming superposition effect aggravates the difficulty of export.

"Since the beginning of this year, the garment and textile industry has been squeezed frequently, and the appreciation of the renminbi has undoubtedly led to an immediate fall in export business." Yang Yi, director of Chongqing Yu Zi AI Clothing Co., Ltd., in an interview with reporters, said that in general, the average gross profit margin of clothing orders for foreign trade fabrics was 3%~5%. However, due to the rising cost of labor and accessories this year, plus the profits of middlemen (Note: the majority of garment enterprises in Chongqing adopt the mode of middleman's agent export), combined with various factors, roughly estimated that RMB's appreciation will be 1%, the export volume of Chongqing garment enterprises will lose 3%~4%.

"In our industry, at least half of the profits are eaten by the ever rising exchange rate." Tang Fuqiang, chairman of Chongqing Julong cocoon silk Co., Ltd., told the business daily reporter that the main items are short bills and small bills. Long term orders will be added to the terms of the contract, and the time requirement for repayment will be more precise. Nevertheless, we still can not get rid of the shadow of not making money.

"Clothing enterprises in the middle and lower reaches of the international trade value chain are extremely sensitive to exchange rate changes, and the impact of RMB appreciation is particularly obvious." Li Yong, Secretary General of Chongqing textile and garment trade association, told the business daily that five or six years ago, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was around 8, and the industry was in good condition. However, with the exchange rate entering the "6 era", every export of a batch of garments will result in a decrease in profits due to the exchange rate, or even more losses in exports.

"This year's performance has been particularly evident. The export volume of many enterprises has dropped by at least 30%, and some enterprises have even reached 40% or 50%." Li Yong said that for the small and medium-sized clothing enterprises whose strength is not strong enough, this "kan" is obviously not easy to cross. As of the end of this year, some garment enterprises have suspended exports, or fought in the domestic market, or cross-border investment in other industries, "stick to less than 50%."

Import: import technology and equipment save much

The appreciation of the renminbi is not entirely useless. The appreciation of the renminbi also means an increase in purchasing power. The cost of travelling abroad and studying abroad has been reduced. For enterprises, the cost of introducing products, production lines and patent technology will also be reduced at this time.

"Import costs have dropped markedly in recent months." Chongqing's Nine Dragons Paper Co., Ltd., a large importer in China, reproduces mainly by importing waste paper from Europe and the United States. Yesterday, the manager of the company's finance department Chiang told reporters: in recent months, the import volume reached 45 thousand tons, the amount was about 13 million dollars, and was affected by the appreciation of the renminbi. "The average monthly import cost can be saved by US $1 million 100 thousand."

Chongqing Haide lasso foreign trade official told the business daily reporter that "after the appreciation of the renminbi, the import prices of many high-tech equipment will also decrease, so enterprises will accelerate the introduction of foreign high-tech." The official said that this has played an important role in promoting the development of intensive mode and changing the extensive growth mode.

In an interview with reporters, Huang Ming, vice president of DBS bank financial market department, reminded investors that there is no obvious reason for the RMB to depreciate significantly. Therefore, it is still appropriate to invest in Renminbi and related products. Basically, all kinds of products can be considered, depending on personal risk tolerance and preferences. "For enterprising investors with strong risk tolerance, they can choose short-term speculation, but they do not recommend individual traders to make long lines." At present, the expected rate of return on the investment of a variety of RMB financial products is "breaking six". For investors, it is still tempting to invest in Renminbi annual financial products.

Answer

Increase the added value of products

In the final analysis, export enterprises should be transformed and upgraded so as to gain the initiative.

Chongqing Weinan silk Co., Ltd., director of marketing department said that the current textile products are mainly concentrated in the low-end market, competitiveness is not enough, vulnerable to changes in the international market and the impact of exchange rate. "At present, the company is developing innovative products to enter the high-end market."

"This year, we Independent intellectual property rights The volume of exports reached 42% of the total, 6 percentage points higher than last year, boosting the total export volume by 30%. He Jiangyu, manager of Zong Shen marketing department, said that the number of independent research and development products will increase to 47% next year, reaching the "half of the scale".

The director of the foreign trade and Economic Cooperation Committee of the Municipal Commission for foreign trade and economic cooperation said that in addition to using exchange rate tools to manage exchange rate risk flexibly, enterprises should not neglect the enhancement of internal skills training, so as to enhance export competitiveness. This competitiveness is inclusive of product quality, technology and brand competitiveness.

　　 trend

RMB spot exchange rate or "break six"

For the future trend of the RMB exchange rate, Xie Yaxuan, director of macro research at China Merchants Securities Research and development center, pointed out that this year, the momentum of RMB appreciation has gradually shifted to the international capital inflow caused by high interest rates at home and abroad. Under the background that the low interest rate situation in the near future is hard to change and the domestic interest rate center continues to move upward, there will still be a large appreciation pressure in the RMB in the short and medium term. The RMB spot rate will have a potential of challenging 6 in the year.