The Pension Fund Is Out Of Balance, With An Annual Balance Of Only 33%.

　 Accumulated balance increased 13 times.

The reporter reviewed the "statistical bulletin of human resources and social security" over the years, and found that the "staff and workers' basic" released yesterday by the Ministry of human resources and social affairs. endowment insurance "The situation is different from the" basic pension insurance "in the statistical communique. The latter is larger than the former. However, the Ministry of human resources and social affairs has not explained this, so it is impossible to decide which people are not included in the former statistics.

The situation of the national endowment insurance fund for enterprise employees in 2003~2012 shows that the total income in 2012 was 18363 billion yuan, an increase of 15154 billion yuan compared with the total income in 2003, an annual increase of 21.4%. Total expenditure of 14009 billion yuan, an increase of 11293 billion yuan in 2003, an average annual growth of 20%.

The fiscal subsidy for the old-age insurance increased from 54 billion 400 million yuan in 2003 to 243 billion yuan in 2012, and the proportion of total income decreased from 16% to 13%.

All fund The largest growth rate in the data was accumulated balance, which increased from 176 billion 400 million yuan in 2003 to 22968 billion yuan in 2012. The accumulated balance increased by 21204 billion yuan, an average annual increase of 33%, an increase of 13 times.

Li Zhen, a professor at the school of public administration of Renmin University of China, told reporters yesterday that the cumulative balance is not evenly distributed throughout the country, mainly in economically developed provinces such as the southeast coast, and the central and western regions still rely on central transfer payments to maintain balance.

Even if the accumulated balance has reached two trillion, China's endowment insurance is still a liability system - the accumulated balance of pension insurance is not enough to make up for the empty accounts of individual accounts.

System liability is due to the reform of the endowment insurance system in 1997, the government did not undertake corresponding transformation costs, and the funds in individual accounts were appropriated to distribute pensions for retirees. The Central Committee has never made a clear statement about how to solve the cost of transformation.

　　 Ministry of human resources and social affairs Yesterday, the latest "empty accounts" data were not released in 2012. However, from the calendar data, the amount of empty accounts has been larger than the accumulated balance of the pension fund since 2006.

Taking 2011 as an example, the China pension development report 2012 released by the Chinese Academy of social sciences has calculated that according to the statistical bulletin of human resources and social security development over the past years, the personal accounts of urban basic old-age insurance accounts for 2 trillion and 490 billion in 2011, and the real account fund is 270 billion 300 million and the empty account is 2 trillion and 210 billion.

In 2011, the balance of urban endowment insurance fund was 1 trillion and 940 billion, which means that the balance of all pension funds is not enough to fill the empty accounts of individual accounts.

Guangdong is the province with the largest number of endowment insurance balances in all provinces. By the end of 2011, the total surplus reached 310 billion 800 million yuan, but the accounts for individual accounts had reached 410 billion yuan in the same period, and the gap was nearly 100 billion yuan.

The decision of the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee put forward the allocation of state assets to enrich social security. fund To raise the proportion of state capital gains to public finance by thirty percent, and more to protect and improve people's livelihood.

Yang Yansui, director of the social security research center of Tsinghua University, told our reporter that the state owned assets should be allocated to the reserve fund for social security, and the dividends should be paid to protect and improve people's livelihood. If these two items could be truly implemented, it means that China should not only return the cost of the original transformation of social security, but also reserve the funds needed for the aging.

"Now state-owned enterprises have become bigger and stronger, and the allocation of assets to enrich the social security fund has become possible. If dividends are paid, the past empty accounts can be made up, and the social security system will not be able to go back to the battle without carrying such a large transformation cost." Yang Yansui said. {page_break}

　　 Behind the rise of dependency ratio

The situation of the national basic old-age insurance personnel participating in the enterprise in 2003~2012 has been released by the Ministry of human resources and social affairs yesterday. During the ten years, the total number of insured persons increased from 138 million 810 thousand in 2003 to 282 million 720 thousand in 2012, with an average annual growth of 8.2%. Among them, the number of insured workers increased from 103 million 240 thousand to 213 million 610 thousand, an average annual growth rate of 8.4%, and the number of retirees increased from 35 million 570 thousand to 69 million 110 thousand, with an average annual growth rate of 7.7%.

As the number of insured increases, the dependency ratio of the system has been rising, rising from 2.90 in 2003 to 3.09. In ten years, the dependency ratio increased by 0.7%.

The dependency ratio of the endowment insurance system refers to the ratio of the number of insured workers to the number of retirees. The burden ratio of the pension system is high and the burden of the system is light.

"Raising the dependency ratio is a good thing." Li Zhen said, this means that China's pension insurance system from the original 2.9 employees to maintain a retiree, to 3.09 serving employees to maintain a retiree, superficially, the burden of the system is easing.

However, the reason for the rise of dependency ratio has worried Li Zhen. The steady increase in dependency ratio of the pension insurance system started in 2005, when the State Council promulgated the decision on improving the basic old-age insurance system for employees in enterprises (hereinafter referred to as Article 38), and a group of young self employed personnel were included in the system to improve the dependency ratio of the system.

Article 38 decided to expand the coverage of the old-age insurance, and bring the town's individual industrial and commercial households and flexible employment personnel into the coverage of the old-age insurance, and determined that these self employed personnel paid the base number of 20% of the average wage of the society, of which 8% was accounted for in the personal account, and the basic pension was calculated according to the basic pension plan of the enterprise employees after retirement.

This is a preferential treatment for self employment of the system in order to expand the coverage. Although 20% is paid by individuals, the total rate is lower than the basic rate of urban workers' pension is 28%. At the same time, Article 38 also stipulates that the payment can be completed in 15 years.

Since 2005, a large number of self employed personnel have entered the system. They often choose the lowest payment level and the minimum payment age. It is still worthwhile for individuals to pay such a low standard to participate in endowment insurance, but it enhances the unsustainability of the system, and the future system must subsidize them.

Li Zhen said that after joining the endowment insurance system with low threshold, the group expanded its coverage and improved the dependency ratio of the system, but pushed the payment risk of the system to the future. Most of these people will stop paying for their pensions after 15 years of payment. It is still unknown whether the current system has made enough preparations for them.

In fact, "broken insurance" has also become a major problem that has plagued pension insurance expansion in recent years, and even attracted the attention of the central authorities. Li Keqiang, premier of the State Council, said in a speech at the Sixteenth National Congress of the Chinese trade unions, that more than 300 million of the insured employees of the more than 300 million urban workers' pension insurance were disrupted this year, mainly due to the difficulties of some small and medium-sized enterprises, or the fact that some flexible employees continue to pay 15 years or more.

The above "China pension development report 2012" also takes the "break protection" as a problem that must be highly valued in the current social security work. It also suggests that the social security department should not only pay attention to quantity but also pay attention to quality when expanding the coverage of social security.

According to our reporter, an important topic in the top-level design of the pension insurance currently under way is to extend the payment age of the pension. Although it helps to correct the existing system, it will also increase the risk of withdrawal from the system once it has a negative impact on self employed personnel.