July Export Figures Are Too Pessimistic Or Deceived

Previous expectations were too pessimistic?

Does the phenomenon obscured the researchers?

The latest release of a group of foreign trade import and export data has thrown a stone, causing "wow" sound theory.

The General Administration of Customs of China announced the import and export of foreign trade in the first 7 months of this year. As at the end of July, China's foreign trade import and export value amounted to US $1 trillion and 482 billion 110 million, an increase of 26.4%. compared with the same period last year, including exports of US $802 billion 910 million, an increase of 22.6%. The import of US $679 billion 200 million, an increase of 31.1%., is obviously better than the previous expectations. The expectations and expectations of the market for exports and imports were 16.8% and 27.2%. respectively.

The export volume of large enterprises is strong, and SMEs are in a predicament. Customs data show that the cumulative trade surplus in 1-7 months was US $123 billion 720 million, a decrease of 9.6% from last year, and a net decrease of US $13 billion 100 million.

In July, China exported 136 billion 680 million US dollars, an increase of 26.9%, a trade surplus of 25 billion 278 million US dollars, a marked rebound compared with June.

From the point of view of products, export growth of products, oil, steel and integrated circuits has rebounded significantly, and the export of EU, US, Japan and major emerging markets has rebounded.

He Zhenhua, an analyst at Shenyin and Wanguo, said that the main contribution of export growth was mechanical and electrical products. The reason why the export data far exceeded the market expectations was that the export of large enterprises increased rapidly and was related to the state's support policies.

He said that although exports of labor-intensive products declined rapidly, SMEs export was very difficult, but exports of large enterprises could still grow rapidly.

He Zhenhua's judgement can be proved on the side of the product category with obvious growth rate, and products, such as oil and steel, are currently dominated by large domestic enterprises.

In addition, from the export situation released by the General Administration of customs, the export of electromechanical products and high-tech products continued to maintain a good momentum.

Data show that in the first 7 months, China's mechanical and electrical products exported 464 billion 220 million US dollars, an increase of 25.7%, accounting for 57.8% of the total export value of the same period, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the same period last year.

Among them, the export of electrical and electronic products was 191 billion 260 million US dollars, an increase of 24.6%.. Ha Ji Ming, chief economist of China International Finance Corporation, said that the export growth rate temporarily rebounded in July, reflecting the phenomenon of many factories exportation before the Olympic Games.

One of the corroboration is that exports of oil products and steel products rebounded significantly in July, which are the main exports of Beijing. These two accounts for 8.4% of the total exports of Beijing and 7.3%. statistics show that in the first 7 months, the total value of imports and exports of Guangdong was 388 billion 780 million US dollars, an increase of 14%, accounting for 26.2% of the total import and export value of the same period.

The introduction of a total policy to stimulate export reduction is corresponding to the rapid growth of steel and integrated circuits. The export growth of traditional commodities shows signs of slowing down.

Clothing and accessories export grew 3.4%, down 19.6 percentage points from the same period last year; footwear exports increased 14.2%, down 4.3 percentage points; plastic products exports fell 1%, down 14 percentage points.

The industries mentioned above are also highly competitive and small and medium-sized enterprises.

In fact, SMEs are also the most vulnerable part of this inflation, rising raw materials, appreciation of the renminbi, and multiple factors of labor costs.

In the direction of national "big guarantee", it is also the focus of discussion whether we should increase policy support.

Feng Yuming, chief economist of Orient Securities macro economics, said that the export decline of textile industry is not a result of policy. It is inevitable that industrial upgrading is inevitable.

He Zhenhua, an analyst at Shenyin and Wanguo, said that the export of clothing and other labor-intensive industries was under great pressure. Taking into account the importance of these industries to employment, the state also adopted some policy support. Targeted support is necessary.

However, Feng Yuming also indicated that in the future, the government's policy of stimulating the total volume of the total disk to stimulate exports is "unlikely".

Instead, the former government has raised the export rebate rate of textiles, and has increased 5% of the loan quota for small and medium-sized enterprises.

The charm of domestic products is still better than expected this year. In fact, the implementation of this "super expectation" has begun to reflect on whether the judgement of the export environment is too pessimistic before.

Feng Yuming said that some of the views were too pessimistic.

But he also believes that the data of one month or accidental factors need time verification.

In addition, he expects that such a high export growth rate will not continue in July, and the annual export growth will be around 20%, while the trade surplus will probably be less than 10% in the whole year.

In addition to the above views, ha Ji Ming also believes that the "fine-tuning" of government policies can not change the situation that the global economy has entered the downlink cycle to drag China's exports. In the face of slowing external demand, the cost of domestic raw materials and units is rising, and the profits of export enterprises will be squeezed further.

He Zhenhua pointed out that the current decline in export prices is mainly concentrated in low-end processing industries such as clothing and textiles, and the export price declines of these products have not been reversed. Therefore, he believes that the export rebound will not change the trend of China's export slowdown.

However, it also believes that there is no evidence that China's export competitiveness is being surpassed by competitors such as Mexico, India and Vietnam. This year's exports should be better than expected.