Huang Hongyu: The Situation In The Cotton Market Is Closely Related To The Macroeconomic Environment.

< p > unlike previous years, the import quota of cotton is mainly concentrated in the hands of a few large enterprises. This year, because of the "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/ "national storage cotton < /a" auction to achieve the quota of imported cotton, some spinning enterprises that had not been able to get quotas in the past had acquired the right to purchase cotton, which led to a diversified trend in the import cotton market.

Under the situation that cotton import is highly controlled, the quantity of quotas is reduced and the dispersion is increasing, how should we adjust the cotton structure of textile enterprises? How should we make good use of the limited imported cotton? Xiao Jingyao, vice president of Huafang group and vice general manager of Henan TongZhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd., Huang Hongyu respectively analyzed the trend of imported cotton market and put forward suggestions on the import strategy of cotton imports.

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< p > Henan TongZhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd. is currently one of the largest cotton suppliers in China. It mainly buys cotton processing and cotton import and export trade, and expands its business to cotton < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > production, real estate development and warehousing and logistics industry.

Reporters recently interviewed Huang Hongyu, deputy general manager of Tongzhou cotton company, and invited him to analyze and predict the market situation of imported cotton in 2013.

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< p > Huang Hongyu thinks that the main body of cotton is "a www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Chinese textile < /a > self sufficiency, but import is an important supplement.

In 2003~2010, China imported 2 million 300 thousand tons of cotton annually.

China's cotton imports reached 5 million 340 thousand tons in 2011/2012.

Cotton imports are estimated at 4 million 300 thousand tons in 2012/2013.

Cotton imports are estimated at 2 million 400 thousand tons in 2013/2014.

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The situation of < p > a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > cotton market < /a > is closely related to the macroeconomic environment.

Huang Hongyu believes that from the macro economic situation, the four major economies have shown a weak trend of improvement except for China. However, there is still a possibility of recurrence in the good foundation.

Emerging economies, led by China, may be the biggest uncertainties affecting the global economic trend.

However, from the open position of the new government of China, it is necessary to maintain the level of China's economic growth and employment, and ensure that the price level does not exceed the ceiling. The government policy will operate within this range.

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< p > cotton consumption is hard to see in the next one or two years.

The weak growth has been replaced by Southeast Asian countries.

Pakistan's cotton demand remained between 2 million 150 thousand ~265 tons.

In addition, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries account for more than 40% of the world's cotton consumption.

Among them, the consumption of cotton in Bangladesh in 720 thousand ~82 million tons, Indonesia 450 thousand ~54 million tons, Vietnam 350 thousand ~50 tons, Thailand in 300 thousand ~37 million tons.

According to the US Department of agriculture (USDA), cotton consumption in the four countries will increase by 4%~8% in 2013/2014.

According to the USDA report, the global cotton consumption in is 23 million 380 thousand tons, and the consumption volume for 2013/2014 is estimated at 23 million 900 thousand tons, up 2.2% over the same period last year.

The growth of cotton consumption mainly came from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

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< p > from the supply of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > cotton < /a >, the global cotton planting area in 2012/2013 is 34 million 323 thousand hectares, and the output is 26 million 390 thousand tons, which is 2.3% lower than that in the 2011/2012 year.

2013/2014 cotton plantation area was 33 million 711 thousand hectares in the year of 2013/2014, 1.8% less than last year, and 25 million 690 thousand tons of production, a decrease of 2.7% over the previous year.

Output in the US and China has declined, especially in the new year of the United States. Cotton production has decreased by 22% over the previous year. The increase in output mainly came from India and South America.

In 2013, before the launch of new flower, from the resources available for export, it was mainly the new flower supply in the southern hemisphere and the remaining cotton resources in West Africa, Central Asia, the United States and India.

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< p > Central Asia is an important cotton export area in the world. The average annual export volume is about 1 million tons. In the 2012/2013, cotton production in Central Asia is 1 million 560 thousand tons, exports are 1 million 190 thousand tons, and domestic consumption is 490 thousand tons. It is estimated that in the year of 2013/2014, the output of Central Asia is 1 million 530 thousand tons, the export volume is 1 million 100 thousand tons, and the domestic consumption is 510 thousand tons.

Africa is also the main export area for cotton. Africa has 1 million 200 thousand tons of cotton output in 2012/2013, 1 million 50 thousand tons of exports, 240 thousand tons of domestic consumption and 480 thousand tons of final inventory.

2013/2014 is expected to produce 1 million 170 thousand tons of cotton in Africa, 240 thousand tons of consumption, 1 million 80 thousand tons of exports and 450 thousand tons at the end of the period.

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< p > Australia is the main force for pre market supply of new flowers in the northern hemisphere. According to the prediction of ABARES of Australian Agricultural Economic Bureau, the export volume of Australia cotton is about 1 million tons.

Australia cotton, which may be concentrated in Hong Kong in eight or nine, can provide replenishment resources directly to spinning enterprises.

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< p > Huang Hongyu believes that, in general, the resources available for export are relatively limited before the new cotton market in the northern hemisphere.

At the end of 2012/2013, the supply of cotton in foreign markets was relatively tight, which provided some support for the October international cotton price before the new flower listing.

But the supply of 2013/2014 will be relatively relaxed after the advent of new cotton in the northern hemisphere.

The global macro-economy is still in a weak state. Even if it has stabilized or rebounded slightly, the foundation of the recovery is still weak. There is still great uncertainty.

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< p > Huang Hongyu is expected to produce stable cotton production in the main producing country in 2013/2014, and the global inventory consumption ratio is at a high level.

Cotton production will change in 2014/2015, and the cotton price difference between inside and outside will gradually return to normal.

In the coming year, cotton prices are mainly weak, and there is no trend market, only short volatility.

A good grasp of stage fluctuations is the key to profitability.

For cotton enterprises, the first priority is policy and second is policy.

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< p > Huang Hongyu analysis shows that at present, the policy of 2013/2014 purchasing and storage has been set at 20400 yuan / ton.

What we need to pay attention to at present is to collect and store according to < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > New Cotton Standard < /a >, how many cotton meet the requirements of storage and purchase, and whether 2014/2015 will continue to purchase and store in the year of 2014/2015, there is no conclusion.

When will the new round of dumping and storage be launched? What price? Does the reserve quota policy continue? Does the general trade quota increase? Because of the uncertainty of the policy, the cotton enterprises should operate steadily and manage the risks well.

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