2013 Textile Industry Situation Analysis

2013 first half year Spin Industry economic operation data released recently. A number of data show that in the first half of this year, the main operational indicators of China's textile industry basically achieved steady growth.

According to the National Bureau of statistics and customs data, textile enterprises in scale above 1~6 this year achieved a total revenue of 2 trillion and 929 billion 730 million yuan, up 13.3% from the same period last year, and realized a total profit of 135 billion 100 million yuan, an increase of 16.6% over the same period last year. In 1~6 months, the whole country exported textiles. clothing 130 billion 940 million US dollars, an increase of 11.85% over the same period last year. The total investment in fixed assets over 5 million yuan in the whole industry reached 391 billion 590 million yuan, an increase of 15% over the same period last year.

We can see from the data that although the overall indicators are showing growth trend, the growth rate has declined. Gao Yong, vice president and Secretary General of the China Textile Industry Federation, seems to be a little better than expected.

　 Market power

　　 Exit More than expected online shopping potential

"This year, the situation is more complicated. From the perspective of the development of the whole industry, the indicators still keep increasing, but the growth rate has declined. But from the present point of view, this decline is expected to be better than expected. Gao Yong pointed out in an interview with reporters.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China's GDP grew by 7.6% over the first half of last year. Above scale industrial added value increased by 9.6% over the same period, of which the textile industry increased by 11.9%. "It should be said that the growth of the textile industry matches the growth of the national economy." Gao Yong said.

The industry is better than expected, mainly reflected in two aspects, namely, exports and domestic sales.

Data show that 1~6 months this year, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to $130 billion 943 million, an increase of 11.85% over the same period last year. The export scale of the industry has expanded and the export growth rate has increased over the previous year.

"Exports have more than 10% growth, which is already higher than we expected." Gao Yong said that this high growth has benefited from a substantial increase in exports to ASEAN. Although the industry has doubts about the growth of more than 60% ASEAN exports, it is a fact that exports are doing well.

In terms of domestic consumption, 1~6 retail sales amounted to 110764 billion yuan in the first three months of this year, an increase of 12.7% over the same period last year, and the retail sales of clothing above the quota reached 541 billion 500 million yuan, up 11.9% from the same period last year, which is 0.8 percentage points slower than the domestic retail sales.

"It seems not very optimistic from the data alone, but this data does not count online shopping." Gao Yong said that online shopping is becoming an important link in changing sales mode and promoting domestic demand growth.

According to statistics, the total number of online shopping in the whole country exceeded 1 trillion and 300 billion yuan last year, and online shopping will also increase by 40%~60% this year. It is estimated that the sales of textile and clothing will be close to 500 billion yuan by Internet sales this year. {page_break}

　　 Pressure still exists

Slow growth in demand and difficulties for SMEs

Although the economic performance indicators in the first half of the year have basically increased steadily, there are still some problems that can not be ignored in the economic operation of the industry.

First of all, clothing demand growth is lower than the overall demand. Meanwhile, the retail sales of key department stores decreased compared with the same period last year. In the first half of 2013, the retail sales of clothing commodities of all the major large retail enterprises increased by 6.9% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 2.9 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year.

Secondly, the prices of chemical fiber raw materials are low. At present, cotton is restricted by policy, and a large number of chemical fiber yarns appear, and a large number of chemical fiber yarn also leads to a decline in market prices.

Finally, the concentration of orders to large enterprises can not be ignored. At present, due to the impact of macroeconomic policies, small cotton mills can not buy cheap cotton, and domestic cotton prices differ from international cotton prices by several thousand yuan, which results in a large number of small cotton spinning enterprises shutting down and orders being concentrated on large enterprises.

"Placing orders to large enterprises is a double-edged sword, which can not only increase industrial concentration, but also bring hidden danger to society." Gao Yong explained that although the transfer of orders to large enterprises is beneficial to the adjustment of industrial structure, it has increased part of the unemployment.

　 Trend prediction

The growth of the situation will be callback.

In the first half of the year, the overall economic stability of the industry has been in the past, but the trend in the second half is crucial for the industry.

"In the second half of the year, I think the trend will continue for the first half of the year, which is a relatively stable trend. The three quarter may continue to decline slightly, but the four quarter will rise." Gao Yong believes that the second half of the season and cotton policy in the second half of this year may not be a major adjustment, it is expected that this trend will continue.

At the same time, the China Textile Industry Federation information center and China Textile Economic Research Center jointly pointed out that the external situation of the textile industry is still more complicated in the second half of the year. On the one hand, the favorable factors for supporting the development of the industry still exist, the domestic demand market is still sound, and the conditions for continued growth are steady. The adjustment of the industrial structure and the transformation and upgrading will continue to push forward the internal driving force of the development of the industry. On the other hand, the impact of excessive domestic and foreign cotton prices on the industry is still very prominent, the international market is still fluctuating risk, the continuing rising labor costs remain to be resolved, the industry faces various external pressures can not be ignored.

It is estimated that the main operational indicators such as production, marketing, efficiency and investment will continue to grow steadily throughout the year. However, with the increase of the statistics base in the same period last year, the growth rate in the second half of this year will probably be somewhat callback.