Cotton Collection And Storage Is Difficult To Continue To Purchase And Storage To Change Directly, Half A Year Is Expected To Pilot

< p > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > cotton storage and storage < /a > for the 3 consecutive years.

This year's pilot project in Xinjiang and the implementation next year will be recognized by the people in the industry.

If cotton is bought and stored, the domestic cotton prices will gradually return to the market and integrate with the international cotton prices.

But in the second half of next year to next year, domestic cotton prices will probably remain stable and weak.

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< p > < strong > collection and storage is difficult to continue. < /strong > < /p >

< p > the international cotton price experienced a sharp decline from 2010 to 2011, almost falling from the high point of 31000 yuan / ton to the bottom of 13000 yuan / ton.

After the crash, 8 ministries and commissions such as the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly launched the temporary cotton purchase and storage policy to stabilize the domestic cotton market and cotton planting area.

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< p > 2011, the cotton purchasing and storage policy was opened. From 2011 to 2012 (in 2013, the storage and purchase had not yet started), the total storage capacity was 9 million 630 thousand tons in the past two years, accounting for 90% of the total cotton output in the country. The total cost was 194 billion 574 million yuan, and domestic cotton inventories accounted for more than 50% of the global inventory.

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< p > it is reported that in 2011, the cotton purchase and storage price was 19800 yuan / ton, and the storage price in 2012 increased to 20400 yuan / ton.

In order to ensure that cotton farmers do not replant other agricultural products (000061, stocks), cotton purchase and storage prices are much higher than the international cotton prices.

Large scale storage and storage led to a serious shortage of cotton circulation in the market, and the state regulated the supply through storage. However, due to the serious decline in quality of cotton reserves, the cotton enterprises would not have high willingness to store.

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< p > now the textile industry is very poor, the price of storage and storage is increased, and the cost of small enterprises is too high, resulting in the closure.

Last year, the capacity to suspend production accounted for 20% to 30% of the industry.

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< p > < strong > cotton prices return to market < /strong > < /p >

< p > cotton will not be kept in storage until next year.

It is expected that the pilot project will be launched in the second half of the year. The pilot project should be launched in Xinjiang, or before May.

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< p > purchase and storage, instead of direct subsidy. Simply speaking, subsidies are only made to households, instead of directly controlling the supply of cotton and the rise and fall of cotton prices.

Cotton farmers get subsidies directly, planting enthusiasm is high, planting area may expand in the future, corresponding cotton supply will also increase, the market price will go down.

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The effect of < p > < < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp > > Direct Subsidy > /a > is to make the domestic cotton price gradually return to the market and integrate with the international cotton price.

Therefore, the future trend of cotton prices is downward, but considering the interaction of various policies, cotton price is a slow down process.

Zhang Hongzhou said.

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< p > lower cotton price is not a good thing for domestic leading textile enterprises.

Zhang Hongzhou believes that once the cotton prices return to the market, small businesses will bring back to life, which may have a negative impact on large enterprises.

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< p > < strong > Direct Subsidy mode is not determined < /strong > < /p >.

< p > the most important factor determining the future cotton price trend is the way and intensity of direct subsidy.

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< p > if it is the central government's financial allocation, it is easy to get into trouble.

If the subsidy is directly sent to each household, the cost will be relatively high. Not only should the area of each family be counted beforehand, but also the collection method of each household should be counted, and when to issue it is also a problem.

If the subsidy is given before planting, it is very likely that cotton farmers will not grow cotton after they get the money.

The most important thing is how much subsidy per mu directly determines cotton production.

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The storage time of < p > 2013 will be from September 1st this year to March 31st next year. If the direct subsidy is fully implemented next year, it should be issued in May before planting.

That is to say, the decision to decide cotton prices next year is not only a direct subsidy plan, but also a market supply and demand relationship.

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< p > under the interaction of the two policies, next year's a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_q.asp" > domestic cotton price < /a > is likely to remain at 18000 yuan / ton to 19000 yuan / ton.

"If next year's nationwide direct subsidy is made, assuming that farmers can get subsidies before planting next year, the price of cotton will probably be as low as 16000 yuan / ton, but considering that the mainland cotton accounts for less than 40% of the total cotton output in the whole country and the grade is low, the decline in domestic cotton prices will not be overnight."

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