Whether Or Not To Throw Storage Will Further Lead The Domestic Cotton Market In The Future Supply And Demand Pattern Development Trend In February

Under the constraint of throwing and storage pressure, Zheng cotton has been in a weak and oscillatory pattern for a long time. Now that the P is being abandoned, the new round of dumping and storage is directly related to the future trend of domestic supply and demand pattern in 8-9.

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< p > throwing storage will restart the trend of the supply and demand pattern of the domestic cotton market in the future in February.

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< p > under the above macro-economic environment, commodities, especially agricultural futures, are returning to their fundamentals. At present, Zheng cotton is at a fork in the road. Whether the new round of dumping and storage will start again is directly related to the future trend of domestic supply and demand pattern in 8-9.

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< p > if the reserve plan is restarted, it is expected that Zheng cotton will continue the early shock market, and the China cotton reserve management company has planned to sell its cotton reserves for sale up to ten million tons, and the total sales volume of the store has reached 3 million 700 thousand tons. However, 4 million 500 thousand tons from the national development and Reform Commission planned for the first time, 800 thousand tons of national cotton reserves failed to be sold in the original deadline. If another round of throwing and storing is launched, the remaining throwing cotton will surely continue to form a pressure on the domestic cotton market in the later stage.

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< p > if there is no further dumping plan, cotton supply and demand will tighten in August, and Zheng cotton will usher in a wave of rising prices.

First of all, the domestic cotton supply is affected by the recent continuous low-temperature weather, the new year's cotton reduction in New Year's production is expected to be deeper than before; the domestic turnover inventory and the industrial inventory of the enterprises are at a low level. Although this round of dumping and storage is over, the cotton imports will rebound later, but this year's trade volume will be tightened. The scale of the external cotton recovery will not be able to effectively offset the supply of raw cotton stores. If there is no further dumping plan, it is expected that the domestic cotton supply will be tightened in the 8-9 months before the new cotton listing.

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< p > secondly, demand side, at present, < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > and a target= "_blank" href= "_blank" > textile > products, domestic and export consumption deceleration operation, especially export.

The weak data in the two quarter of this year triggered high-level vigilance. A series of favorable policies were put forward before and after the end of July. For example, the export policy of export commodities including textiles and garments, and tax reduction policies for small and micro enterprises, etc., the introduction and fermentation of these favorable policies will surely boost the downstream consumption in the medium and long term.

In addition, August is the peak season for the traditional consumption in the lower reaches, so it is expected that the downstream consumption in August will be better than that in the early stage.

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< p > up to now, there is no conclusion on whether to throw the reserve again, but the market information is quite different.

On the one hand, the downstream enterprises generally expect that the state will reopen and store up, and the 800 thousand tons of unsold dump in the reserve plan will make it possible for the country to reopen and store the stock in the next stage. In retrospect, the implementation of dumping and storage in most countries in August was concentrated in August. But on the other hand, according to the cotton net, the relevant national ministries and commissions recently made clear again that the sale of the national cotton store after the end of July had not yet started the plan of the second round of bidding.

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Above all, in August, Zheng cotton market is still subject to policy.

If the market anticipate that the country will continue to implement further dumping and storage, it is estimated that the cotton price in August will continue to follow the long-range shocks in the early stage. If it is no longer abandoned, the supply and demand will be tightened on the basic level, and the probability of Zheng cotton uplink in August will be greater.

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