US Cotton Prices May Fall In Late 2013/14

< p > growers co operative Carle Carter limited believes that cotton prices in 13/14 are between 75-92 cents.

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< p > Louis Dreyfus Corporation believes that China may change its cotton policy in 14/15.

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< p > on Friday, some cotton experts said that China's cotton reserve policy and lower US cotton stocks will provide support for New York's cotton futures in 2013/14. Although the supply of cotton increased, the price in late 2013/14 would probably fall by about 10%.

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Joe Nicosia, global cotton director of Louis Da FOK commodity company, told the annual radio program of the agricultural market network in New York, P. In 2014/15, China had a "very good chance" to change the cotton policy in 2014/15, which could lead to a further sharp fall in prices.

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"P," Nicosia said: "prices will not fall too early in the first few months of the crop season, which is expected to be affected by strong demand in China and the expected reduction in us supply in the first few months of August 1st."

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< p > by the end of this month, the total inventory of the United States is estimated to be 3 million 900 thousand packages (480 pounds / pack), larger than the 3 million 400 thousand package in 2011/12, reaching the highest level in four years, but the stock of the exchange has dropped sharply. Due to the unfavorable weather for early cotton sowing and cotton growth, the maturity and market timing of US cotton is expected to be delayed.

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P, one of the largest exporters of cotton in the United States, Jarral Neeper, President of Calcot Ltd, Carle, a grower co operative group, said that the price range of cotton trade in 2013/14 may be 75-92 cents / pound, and the price will fall to the low end of this forecast range next spring.

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< p > the price will be more than 10% lower than the benchmark contract currently about 85 cents / pound, although the world's largest a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile "/a" product market is expected to continue to be strong in China.

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The price will fall when the new cotton is harvested worldwide, but the price falls below 72 cents, which may stimulate China to expand demand and keep prices at historically high levels. P

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< p > since the beginning of December, the US ICE cotton futures contract has not yet fallen below 72 cents, hitting a new high in the middle of March, almost 94 cents.

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< p > China's demand for foreign cotton has been growing. As the government launched the cotton purchase and storage plan in 2011, Beijing's price is higher than the global price.

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< p > this plan sets a low price for global prices, and other countries and regions outside China feel tight supply, although global inventories are expected to be high.

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< p > Nicosia says that the United States may export more cotton in the 2013/14 crop year than the US Department of agriculture expects 11 million packages, but the prospect of such a policy is uncertain and China policy is likely to change.

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< p > China is reconsidering its reserve plan, considering that the plan has made Chinese textile mills strained.

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(P) global consumption is dependent on China's continuous purchasing and storage. High prices encourage more farmers to grow cotton and raise global production, even if they push demand to cheaper synthetic alternatives.

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< p > Nicosia said: "we find ourselves today that this situation is not sustainable."

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