BELLE Has Been Accused Of Frequent Downgrades And Interim Growth Or Negative Growth.

BELLE International's recent days are still not very good. It has become the most vulnerable blue chip after the big companies have lowered the target price.

Recently, CICC released a 2013 China Daily Performance preview report, showing the brand. clothing The growth rate of China's report is generally low, and even a large area of negative growth has occurred, and BELLE international is among them.

In the context of earlier slowdown in performance, according to CICC, BELLE's performance will turn 1% in the middle of 2013.

In the view of analysts, from the background of the downturn in the whole industry, BELLE's probability of stabilizing and recovering in the short run is relatively small, and the probability of decline in the performance of China's newspapers is indeed large.

Prior to this, BELLE executives sent a message to major investment banks before the general meeting of shareholders, indicating that sales of BELLE international will further slow down since 2013, and the growth in the two quarter will be lower than that in the first quarter. After that, it was downgraded by many brokerages to lower the target price.

Xiong Xiaokun, a light industry researcher at CIC, told reporters that BELLE's performance decline or even negative growth is caused by many factors. Among them, the background of the whole industry downturn is the main factor, especially the current high inventory of sports apparel industry is making BELLE international performance boost extremely difficult. In addition, the contradiction between BELLE and agent brand also has a negative impact on its performance. From the industry to the company's point of view, BELLE international can not effectively give the market good performance and development expectations.

It is understood that recently, the big sum total research has cut BELLE's revenue forecast from 2013 to 2014, reflecting the slow growth of same store sales. The sales growth forecast for the same store will drop from 7% to 5% this year, and it is considered that BELLE sportswear business has a large stock, while the low margin Big Step also has a slight impact on its product mix.

In addition, frequent department store promotions will give BELLE and other brand operators more cost pressures, particularly as a further increase in the discount point. As the same store growth continued to be lower than expected, Da he said that the further decline of BELLE's operating margin may exceed expectations.

An analyst who understands BELLE told reporters that no matter from the current operation status of the whole industry, or from BELLE's performance, brand development, and the relationship with agents, it can not let the market see its good prospects for development. It is based on the attitude towards the industry and the current operating conditions of the company that the organization reduces its forecast price and gross profit margin. However, this does not affect the real business of the company. Whether it can survive the severe winter lies in whether the company can effectively integrate business, reduce costs, improve efficiency and marketing.

This year, the pace of expansion of BELLE international will also be forced to slow down. According to BELLE international financial data, BELLE international has rapidly expanded its retail network in China in the past 3 years, of which ~2012 opened 21.2% in 2010, but its total sales grew by only 17.7% during that time. Deutsche Bank has predicted that in the 2013 ~2015 fiscal year, BELLE will slow down its expansion speed of 7%~8%.

Since the two quarter, the overall performance of BELLE international has continued to decline, and the performance of local stores is not outstanding. This not only reflects the current overall downturn of the whole sports apparel industry, but also means that BELLE must adjust and optimize its current business, management and other aspects. Xiong Xiaokun believes that the key of BELLE's free brand plus agent mode is how to match multiple brands so that they can form joint efforts and develop together in the market.

Since late June, there has been a big discount of international fast fashion brands. The discount time is ahead of schedule. In the view of the industry, it also reflects the stock pressure of international brands. For domestic brands, it will usher in "black July".

BELLE, which has been downgraded from its neutral to reduced holdings, has pointed out that BELLE is hard to return to the good days of its low double-digit average price due to the more rational consumer behavior resulting from fierce competition and slower economic growth. BELLE is under pressure from industry competition and high operating costs. shoes The high operating profit margin of the class is not sustainable.

There is a view that at present, BELLE should focus more on inventory clearance, communication and cooperation with various brand agents and effective integration and divestiture of various businesses.

However, Chen Yao believes that this may also be a signal released by the central government, hoping that the resource exhausted city will rely on its own development. Chen Yao believes that "from this point of view, it is more desirable for the country to push forward its transformation from its own efforts, and through the market approach, to help them in the early stages of transformation. Later, it is hoped that they will develop themselves from the perspective of market economy."

　 Transfer payment funds will be strictly managed.

The central government has a lot of help for resource exhausted cities, so local cities are also very active in striving for more transfer payments.

According to public data, the first batch of resource exhausted cities, Huangshi, Hubei, for example, in 2012, Huangshi striving for the transfer of central resources exhausted cities 346 million 200 thousand yuan, an increase of 26 million 660 thousand yuan over the previous year, an increase of 8.3% over the previous year, an increase of 240 million 200 thousand yuan and an increase of 226.6% over the 106 million yuan in 2008.

Chen Yao believes that in the face of the transfer payment of central finance, many cities have hopes that they want to increase this part of their income. Many cities are also making efforts to join the industry. However, in the face of this year's central finance in the resource exhausted cities transfer payments than the budget substantially reduced, Chen Yao think, "is also telling cities, in the future financial payment, will not have great strength".

Wang Zhaocai, deputy director of the Financial Science Research Institute of the Ministry of finance, has said that special transfer payments have exposed many problems in recent years. Every year the economic working conference will mention the reduction of special transfer payments and the increase of general transfer payments.

In fact, in regard to the management of transfer payment funds in resource exhausted cities, the Ministry of Finance issued a special document on the management of the transfer payment fund of the local resource exhausted cities in 2012, which was issued by the Ministry of Finance in 2012. According to the provisions of the Ministry of finance, the central government subsidized the transfer payment to the local resource exhausted cities: the cities with exhaustion of Resources approved by the State Council, and the cities with reference to the policy of resource exhausted urban transfer payment.

The Ministry of Finance stipulates that the first round of subsidies for cities with the transfer payment scope of resource exhausted cities will be 4 years; 4 years later, according to the evaluation results of the transformation of resource exhausted cities by the relevant departments of the State Council, the unsuccessful cities and counties will continue to be postponed for 5 years; the successful cities and counties will be given 3 year's subsidy for the 3 year's subsidies, the subsidy rates are 75%, 50% and 25% respectively.