Cotton City Morning Post: Cotton Prices Downward Trend Further Strengthened

< p > cotton as the most important textile a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > strong > raw material < /strong > /a >, it is also difficult to escape the risk of falling.

It is reported that the new year's "a" target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > strong > cotton < /strong > /a > sowing area will be announced at the end of June, which will impact the current market.

Compared with the estimated planting area in March, the increase in planting area of new cotton in June is a big probability event.

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< p > first, according to the progress of US cotton sowing, as of the end of May, the sowing of American cotton was basically over, and the fine and warm weather returned to some cotton areas. The precipitation in southern Dezhou, the main producing area, contributed to the growth of crops.

In addition, the central and Southern cotton region is growing well and the southeast cotton area is also good.

Therefore, in 2013, the progress of US cotton seeding has been close to the average of five years and the level of 2012.

Secondly, from the historical data, USDA released the new year's planting area in March and June each year, and June is the revision of March data.

Comparative analysis shows that the annual forecast area and the actual sowing area of the United States cotton are mostly within 600 thousand acres.

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< p > in the first quarter of this year, the data released by USDA showed that the US cotton intention area in 2013/2014 was 10 million 26 thousand acres, a decrease of 18.6% compared to the same period last year, which is 26 thousand acres higher than in February.

From the comparison of the actual planting area between June and 2012/2013 in March, the planting area was reduced.

But the time difference between the two forecasts is different. During this period, cotton growers or farms will increase or reduce the planting area according to the market price. In 2012 3, cotton prices fell from 90 cents per pound to cotton farmers' confidence in planting cotton, which caused the actual planting area to shrink.

It is therefore concluded that since the February 2013, the US cotton is at a relatively high level, which helps to boost confidence in cotton planting, and the possibility of increasing the actual planting area in June is very great.

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< p > the decline of the US cotton market has been launched for a week. This week, after the profit of the planting area at the end of June was digested, it rebounded under the function of internal and external funds.

For Zheng cotton, I believe that after a sharp fall in commodities, the short term will not fall again, the probability of a low correction will be greater, buying will be low, and at that time, more funds will be gathered to overshoot varieties. Accordingly, cotton will be left behind, and under the double pressure, Zheng cotton can not escape the risk of falling.

For investors, it is a good choice to sell 20000 on the top of January or buy 9 throw 1.

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< p > last week, the impact of the opening of the electronic disk of the United States cotton, Zheng cotton skip opened low, then plunged, the main contract 1309 largest decline of 460 yuan, and then driven by the surrounding varieties of general inflation, quickly pulled back to the vicinity of 20250 yuan, the whole day to maintain a narrow pattern of consolidation decline.

At the close, the contract fell by 135 yuan to 20225 yuan / ton, but its position was reduced by 3916 to 39080.

As of the end of May, the national cotton business inventory was 1 million 120 thousand tons, most of which were less than a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > strong > textile < /strong > /a > enterprises indicated that the current business situation was still grim, and the benefits were poor.

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At the same time, in the Beijing time electronic disk, American cotton continued to decline and fell to below 90 cents. P

Some analysts said that this directly led to a sharp decline in cotton futures in Zhengzhou.

The US Department of agriculture predicts that the world's cotton production will be 25 million 509 thousand tonnes in 2013/2014, 143 thousand tons less than that in May, 23 million 988 thousand tons of consumption, 55 thousand tons less than that in May, and the end of world cotton stocks reduced by 55 thousand tons, to 20 million 137 thousand tons, an increase of 1 million 645 thousand tons over 2012/2013.

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