Polyester Staple Market Continues To Slump

At the beginning of May, taking advantage of the "May 1" holiday and the continuous rise of international oil prices, the overall atmosphere of the polyester market was warmer. The polyester staple market also rebounded, and the industry inventory dropped significantly. The higher market quotation rose to more than 10500 yuan / ton. The dissipation of favorable external atmosphere drives the polyester market into a horizontal finishing state. Psf There is no exception. In the middle of May, the new guiding factors had not yet appeared. The upstream raw materials showed a weak trend of oscillation, and the market remained cautious. It was difficult for the polyester staple to be traded, and the mindset gradually increased. Although the manufacturers tried hard to maintain the quotations, they could not prevent the price center from slipping slightly. Under the stimulation of individual manufacturers' low price shipment and part of Jiangsu manufacturers' collective exploratory price increases, 21 or 22 polyester fibers Staple market Turnover has been active, the downstream needs to be released moderately, production and sales improved significantly compared with the previous few days. However, the short term turnover has only improved for two days, and the market price has not even risen. 5 at the end of the month, pessimism was widespread, market mentality deteriorated further, manufacturers' willingness to ship goods increased, low price goods increased again, and price center continued to fall slightly. The mainstream trading of 1.4D polyester staple in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to 10050 yuan / ton to 10100 yuan / ton (factory); the mainstream market in Fujian has fallen to 10100 yuan / ton to 10150 yuan / ton (short delivery); the northern market is supported by Sinopec's high price of goods, the price is relatively good, and the main source of private goods is traded at 10200 yuan / ton to 10300 yuan / ton (short delivery).

After the Spring Festival of 2013, polyester fiber Staple industry The uneven level of inventory is particularly prominent. After several months of adjustment, the difference between the manufacturers and the manufacturers has been narrowed. This phenomenon still exists. The inventory size also affects the shipments of the manufacturers. After a long period of market stalemate, there are different factories because of the low inventory pressure, and in most cases, the price of polyester staple fiber will further descend. Therefore, it is particularly important to reduce the inventory level in the later stage.

From the upstream point of view, the June ACP negotiations will help to enhance PTA cost support. In the short term, the operation of the PTA plant will shift from the suppression of PX spot price to the PTA spot market operation. Therefore, in June, the PTA market is likely to shake off the weak oscillation situation, and the activity will be improved. In terms of MEG, the pressure on tank area remains high. At the end of 5, the total stock of 4 large tank farms in East China will reach 960 thousand tons, and the latter will continue to explore, and the 7000 yuan / ton integer will be difficult to guarantee.

From the downstream point of view, June is the terminal. Spin clothing The traditional off-season of the industry has been blurred in the light and high season in recent years, and there is still widespread anxiety in the polyester staple market. In addition, in the middle and later days, the northern region will usher in the "wheat harvest" busy season. At the same time, a private factory in northern China has announced that it will open 200 thousand tons of polyester staple fiber polymerization device in June, and the market is concerned that this year's relatively strong northern market will also fall.

The author thinks that the problem of investment dividend reduction and overcapacity of polyester staple fiber industry is particularly prominent this year. Difficulties do exist. Excessive pessimism is not necessary. The commissioning of the new device needs to be debugged. Even if the device is put into operation on time, the product will officially come out at least until July, and it will be difficult to make a substantial impact on the market in the short term. Recently, pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn have slowed down, but the two varieties are yarn The stock is not large, and the cash flow of polyester staple fiber is calculated at the same day price. The profit per ton of pure polyester yarn can reach the high point since the fourth quarter of 2012. At present, the staple fiber price is relatively low, and the risk of big fall is not great. On the optimistic side, the unsalable cotton yarn may also enhance the willingness of Fujian cotton mill to produce pure polyester yarn.

At the end of 5, the price of PET staple fiber again approached 10000 yuan, which led to further Market Association. The author thinks that the market focus of polyester staple fiber is generally low. Conversely, if there is no significant negative side to the macro level, polyester staple will be more likely to rebound in June, but the rebound will be limited and the market focus can break through the previous high point, which needs further observation.