It Is Expected That Domestic And Foreign Cotton Prices Will Be Narrowed Later.

At present, the northern hemisphere has entered. cotton During the planting season, the preliminary findings of various authorities showed that cotton planting intentions in China and the United States decreased compared with last year. China's market response to "2013 cotton temporary purchase and storage plan" is dull, and cotton prices are basically stable.

According to the analysis, the domestic cotton prices will be relatively stable in the later period, due to the combined effects of temporary purchasing and storage policy and the long time and quantity of reserve cotton. The global cotton production in 2012/13 and 2013/14 is expected to decline for two consecutive years. Meanwhile, the expected growth of global cotton demand will ease the situation of oversupply of cotton in the world, and international cotton prices may rise. Therefore, the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton is expected to shrink in the late stage, but it will not disappear in the short term.

The market's response to the cotton purchase and storage plan in 2013 was mild, and China's cotton planting intention continued to decline.

Since 2011, the state started the temporary cotton purchase and storage policy, it has played an important role in stabilizing the market and safeguarding the interests of farmers to a certain extent. According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, as of March 29, 2013, the temporary storage and storage of cotton in 2012 ended, and the total volume of storage and storage reached 6 million 506 thousand tons, accounting for 85.4% of the cotton output in that year. The cotton price has dropped sharply in the early 2012, and the lowest price point has dropped by nearly 18.4% compared with the annual high point. However, since the start of the temporary storage and purchase plan in September, cotton prices have gradually stabilized and even picked up.

In April 8th, the seven departments of the national development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "cotton temporary storage and purchase plan for 2013". It is clear that the purchase and storage of cotton will continue in the 2013 year, and the cotton temporary reserve price will be maintained at 20400 yuan / ton. The quality of storage and purchase is carried out according to the new cotton standard, and the execution time is from September 1, 2013 to March 31, 2014.

Lu Huaiyu, President of the cotton growers association of China Cotton Association, said that although the purchase and storage plan is conducive to the price of the bottom cotton and stabilize the cotton market, but because the plan was postponed for more than a month compared with the time announced last year, and the market had anticipated the plan, the market reaction after the introduction of the policy was rather dull.

First, the intention of planting cotton continued to decline compared with last year. At present, cotton planting in China has nearly 20%, because cotton is time-consuming and time-consuming, and compared with grain crops, the comparative efficiency is not good. Cotton planting intention in China continued to decline this year. Lu Huaiyu believes that the purchase and storage plan for cotton farmers to stimulate little, it is also difficult to curb the introduction of cotton planting area this year, the downward trend.

According to the latest survey of Cotton Association of China, cotton planting intention this year dropped by 8%-9% compared with last year. Among them, the the Yellow River basin has dropped by about 20%, and the Yangtze River Basin has dropped by about 10%. Xinjiang has not changed much since last year.

China cotton net said that the national cotton market monitoring system again launched a nationwide cotton planting intention survey in mid March. The results showed that in 2013, the intention of planting cotton in the country was 72 million 644 thousand mu, a decrease of 2.9%.

Two, cotton futures prices are not changing much. According to the China Cotton Association's monitoring, in April 17, 2013, China's cotton price index (CC Index328) was 19380 yuan / ton, down 0.02% from 19383 yuan / ton in April 8th. In April 17th, the closing price of Zheng cotton main contract 1309 was 20185 yuan / ton, which was 0.59% lower than that of 20305 yuan / ton in April 8th.

Global oversupply of cotton will ease, international Cotton price Expected to rise

Global cotton production in 2012/13 and 2013/14 is expected to decline for two consecutive years, and the expected growth in global cotton demand will ease the oversupply of cotton worldwide, and international cotton prices may rise.

Global cotton production is expected to decline. The US Department of agriculture's latest global cotton supply and demand report released in April predicted that global cotton production in 2012/13 was 26 million 62 thousand tons, down 3.55% from 2011/12.

According to the April annual report of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), it is estimated that in April, the world's cotton output was 23 million 467 thousand tons, down 9.79% from 26 million 13 thousand tons in 2012/13, down 14.49% from 27 million 444 thousand tons in 2011/12, and 16 million 441 thousand tons at the end of the year, down 1.47% from the 16 million 686 thousand tons in the year of 2012/13. The US Department of agriculture's report on planting intentions predicts that the 2013/14 cotton planting area will be reduced by 18.6% in the year of 60 million 858 thousand acres. Among them, the planting area of upland cotton is 59 million 607 thousand mu, the reduction is 18.7%; the Pima cotton planting area is 1 million 250 thousand mu, and the reduction is 13.6%.

At the same time, global demand for cotton has increased, which is good for international cotton prices. The US Department of agriculture's global cotton supply and demand report in April showed that global cotton consumption in 2012/13 will reach 23 million 392 thousand and 300 tons, an increase of 4.33% over 2011/12.

With the ease of supply and demand of foreign cotton, the international cotton price is expected to rise. However, due to the uncertainty of global economic recovery and the full stock of global cotton, the international cotton price increase is limited. China Spin Sun Huaibin, director of the center for economic research, said that at present, the economic growth of the developed countries and regions such as the United States, Japan and Europe is still weak, and the economic recovery of emerging market countries is limited. From 1-2 months, the demand of developed countries' terminal market has not increased much, and export pressure is still very large. The global cotton supply and demand report released by the US Department of agriculture in April showed that global cotton inventories reached a record high in 2012/13, an increase of 17.52% over the previous year, making it difficult for international cotton prices to go up sharply.