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Textile Upstream Raw Material Market Again Encountered Inventory In March Export Data Fall

2013/4/16 14:10:00 39

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Cotton Textile Raw Materials Market Textile Industry

in the first quarter of 2013, < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > textile < /a > the differentiation of raw material market leads to all possible trends.

the first trend: rising.

With cotton fiber as the leader, ICE cotton rose 17.73% in recent months, 14.68% in FC Index M, 7.15% in main cotton futures, 0.91% in cotton grade 328, and 1.20% in acrylic fiber, nylon and spandex.

second trends: decline.

The largest variety of synthetic fiber, polyester market, is out of commission.

By the end of 3, POY150D/48F of polyester filament was quoted at 10400 yuan / ton, down 9.56%; polyester staple fiber 1.4D x 38mm quoted 10200 yuan / ton, down 9.33%; polyester filament FDY150D/96F price 10950 yuan / ton, fell 6.81%; polyester filament DTY150D/48F quoted price 12200 yuan / ton, fell 4.69%.

third trends: fair.

Unlike the two grade differentiation of cotton and polyester market trend, viscose staple fiber has become the most special variety of textile raw materials market this quarter. The price of regular varieties 1.5D * 38mm first climbed from 13700 yuan / ton to 15000 yuan / ton, and then dropped from 15000 yuan / ton to 13700 yuan / ton.

"P" is also raw material for textile industry. Why is price rising, falling and leveling? We analyze various factors, which we think is related to the fundamentals of supply and demand.

With the decline of cotton planting area and the reduction of total production, the capacity of domestic chemical fiber industry is expanding, and the situation of supply exceeding demand is becoming more and more serious.

At the end of the first quarter, except for the decline of the spandex stock from the end of 2, the stock of polyester, nylon, viscose and other products all increased to varying degrees.

Among them, polyester is the most serious, enterprise inventory is more than a month or so, enterprises have to choose to cut production or stop production because of self help.

At the end of March, the operation rate of polyester filament has dropped to around 7, while the polyester staple fiber has more than 4 production capacity in parking condition.

inventory is too heavy to breathe.

Terminal textile < a target= "_blank" href= "http://www.91se91.com/" > clothing < /a > export and bad news.

After the rapid growth in January and February, March's export data swept away this optimism.

According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of customs, in March 2013, the export volume of textiles and clothing in China was 16 billion 721 million US dollars, down 11.01% from the same period last year, and the growth rate was 1.49%, of which the textile export amount was 7 billion 504 million US dollars, down 11.77% from the same period last year, and the growth rate was 27.45%.

however, after nearly two months of decline, polyester fiber and other chemical fiber varieties have dropped to the bottom area, the market has the opportunity to stop rebound, and the cotton market will continue to play the main line in the policy evolution outside the planting theme.

In April 10th, the cotton interim purchase and storage policy was finally settled. The policy of collection and storage basically met market expectations. It continued to open up and store up, and kept the price unchanged.

2013 first quarter textile material prosperity index barometer

increase champion .

cotton increase: 0.91% ~ 7.15% cotton increase: 14.68% ~ 17.73%

< a > href= > http://cailiao.sjfzxm.com/Matertial/show/default.aspx > cotton > /a > /strong > /p >

supply decreases, demand increases

the rising price is expected to come out /p >

[market review 1: current spreads widened again]

the first quarter of 2013, the domestic cotton futures market showed different trends.

Zheng cotton showed a broad oscillation pattern, and the main contract dropped several times. The fluctuation was very frequent. The closing price reached a maximum of 20385 yuan / ton and the lowest price dropped to 19045 yuan / ton.

In contrast, the 328 grade cotton is very stable, and the price center is narrowing in the range of 19200~19400 yuan / ton.

As of March 29th, the CC-Index328 price index was 19375 yuan / ton, the 1309 contract of zhengmian main contract was 20305 yuan / ton, and the futures price was 930 yuan / ton higher than the spot price.

[market review 2: cotton price difference between inside and outside is gradually narrowing]

in the first quarter of 2013, although the domestic cotton price is still higher than the international cotton price, the difference between them is shrinking, which is close to the reasonable axis of the historical axis.

As of March 29th, China's cotton price index of 328 was 19375 yuan / ton, the import cotton price index M cotton 1% tariff was 15678 yuan / ton, cotton was 3697 yuan / ton higher than outer cotton, compared with the beginning of the year 5393 yuan / ton price difference dropped by more than 30%.

[outlook]

The cotton storage and storage work in 2012/2013 has ended.

As of March 29, 2013, the total volume of acquisition and auction was 6 million 506 thousand and 400 tons.

Due to the inverted cotton price at home and abroad, the temporary storage capacity of cotton in this year is quite close to the annual cotton output of 6 million 840 thousand tons announced by the National Bureau of statistics, which is also not far from the 7 million 164 thousand ton statistics of the China Cotton Association.

4 in the middle of the month, cotton will enter the sowing period, and the increase or decrease of planting area will have an important impact on cotton price.

According to China Cotton Association February cotton planting intention survey data, this year, the domestic cotton area was 68 million 160 thousand mu, down 6.8% compared with the same period last year, the lowest record in 10 years.

The latest report on cotton planting intentions released by the US Department of agriculture also said that the US cotton planting area is expected to be 10 million 26 thousand acres in the new year, a decrease of 18.6% over the same period last year.

it is undeniable that the reduction of cotton planting area will inevitably play a supporting role in cotton prices, but the demand for terminal textile is worrying.

According to the feedback information of textile enterprises, the orders increased overall in the first quarter, and the output and sales volume increased slightly last year. But the market trend was not optimistic. It was generally reflected that the new orders were underboosted, and the total turnover volume in 4~5 months is expected to be less than that in March.

from the policy point of view, the cotton temporary purchase and storage plan in 2013 has finally been settled, and it will continue to open up the storage and storage, and the price will still be 20400 yuan / ton.

Since the market has already fully digested the plan, the impact of the purchase and storage plan on the short-term market is not very large, but it will boost the domestic and international cotton prices after September.

To sum up, to sum up, the global economic recovery is slow, and the problem of cotton price difference between inside and outside exists. In the short term, the domestic textile industry is hard to return to normal level. P

However, cotton production is expected to decrease this year, and the cotton storage and storage policy has the effect of supporting the market. It is expected that the cotton market will remain relatively stable throughout the whole market.

increase: 3.26% ~ 5.20%{page_break}

.

acrylic fiber .

downstream yarn demand is not smooth > /strong > /p >

based on inventory adjustment,

Market Review

in the first quarter of 2013, the acrylic fiber market was in pition from "smooth to steady".

As of March 29th, the mainstream price of 1.5D * 38mm cotton staple fiber was 17900~18500 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of 3D * 64mm medium and short staple fiber was 17700~18000 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of 3D acrylic silk tow was 17700~18500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of 3D acrylic top was 18700~19500 yuan / ton, the increase range was 3% to 5% left and right.

< outlook >

from the raw material aspect, the domestic acrylonitrile plant maintenance in April is relatively concentrated, and the market supply is expected to decrease, which will support the price.

It is reported that Jilin Petrochemical acrylonitrile plant is running at low load, of which 3# and 4# installations have a certain maintenance plan; Anqing Petrochemical 130 thousand ton / year acrylonitrile plant plans to overhaul a week in April, and 80 thousand tons / year old equipment after the new device is restarted, there are also overhaul plans.

On the other hand, as the price of acrylonitrile is approaching the marginal cost line of manufacturers, the bottom of the market is strong, and the market is expected to be consolidated.

from the supply side, the domestic acrylic fiber industry's overall operating rate is around 75%.

The operation load of Qilu Petrochemical acrylic fiber production plant increased to 100% at the end of March. The 60 thousand ton acrylic fiber production plant in Hangzhou Bay was restarted after Qingming Festival, and the market supply will increase slightly.

But at present, the inventory of chemical fiber manufacturers is normal, there is no obvious pressure, and there is still a certain maintenance plan.

It is reported that Jilin chemical fiber acrylic production plant plan 5 months in the first half of the car maintenance for half a month or so.

from the perspective of demand, because the overall order is not ideal, and the price of acrylonitrile is dragging down, acrylic yarn manufacturers generally say that the goods are not smooth and the stock level is gradually increasing.

Under the pressure of high inventory, many producers of acrylic yarn have cut down or stop production, and the overall operating rate has dropped to 6~7 low.

overall, the market of acrylic fiber market will show a weak consolidation pattern.

Along with approaching the production cost line, acrylonitrile and acrylonitrile continue to decline little space, the market will gradually slow down; because yarn is not smooth and sales situation is weakening, the inventory level of acrylic producers tends to rise, but the manufacturers will start according to the inventory adjustment.

increase: 2.08% to 2.44%

nylon /p >

upstream cost support weakened

market supply pressure increased

Market Review

in the first quarter of 2013, the market trend of nylon filament was slightly higher.

As of March 29th, the high-end POY85D/24F supply of nylon 24800~25200 yuan / ton was accepted in June, the middle end was 24000~24500 yuan / ton acceptance, the low end goods source was 23000 yuan / ton cash, nylon DTY70D/24F high-end goods source 27500~28000 yuan / ton June acceptance, middle end cargo source 27000~27500 yuan / ton acceptance in June, gold price 25500~26000 yuan / ton at present, the mainstream price of nylon FDY70D/24F was accepted at 25000~26000 yuan / ton in June, and the actual turnover was about 24800~25500 yuan / ton in June acceptance.

< outlook >

In the two quarter of P, the market of nylon filament will decline.

The reasons are as follows:

first, the upstream product caprolactam and nylon slicing downstream channel opened, the cost surface can not support the nylon filament market.

Due to the serious obstruction of nylon slicing, most of the polymerization plants reduce production load and postpone the purchase plan for raw materials.

It has been heard that the price of caprolactam on the top of the list is low, and the price has dropped to 18000 yuan / ton, which is dominated by Shijiazhuang and giant chemicals.

Second, the overall stock of the nylon filament factory is high, and the new production capacity will continue to mount, and the market supply pressure will further increase.

At present, the starting load of nylon filament manufacturers is at 7~9, and inventory level is generally around 20~25 days.

Installation, Ningbo new 30 thousand tons / year new device is expected to be put into operation in April, Ningbo Jinsheng 30 thousand tons / year new device is also scheduled to be put into operation in April, and Zhuji Xin Qin 30 thousand tons / year new device is expected to be commissioned in mid April.

Third, downstream demand is sluggish, manufacturers are facing enormous pressure and will drag down the market price of nylon filament.

In the civilian field, knitted fabrics and warp knitted fabrics are not very active in the market, and the stock is backlog for one month or slightly higher.

The non civilian sector is also not optimistic. The terminal orders are still not ideal. The price of cord fabrics, Dan Fusi and fishing nets is small and the prices are falling. The production enterprises maintain more profits.

increase: 1.20% to 1.75%

spandex /p >

strong > high-end goods are still tight, /p >

strong > procurement on demand occupies the mainstream

Market Review

Since the first quarter of 2013, the spandex market has shown a trend of gradual upward movement in P.

As of March 29th, the price range of 20D spandex was 53000~63000 yuan / ton, and the price range of 30D spandex was 48000~52000 yuan / ton, and the price range of 40D spandex was 45000~47000 yuan / ton, which was 1.20% to 1.75% higher than that at the end of last year.

With the steady increase of market prices, the price difference between spandex and upstream materials has increased, and the profitability of the industry has been improving.

According to the formula of "40D spandex -0.78 * PTMEG-0.2 * pure MDI", the difference between spandex and upstream raw materials is 20000 yuan / ton, which is higher than the average price difference of 18580 yuan / ton since 2012.

< outlook >

from the cost side, the domestic price of PTMEG is higher than the international price. The mainstream price of the market is 27000~29000 yuan / ton, but the downstream users basically take the goods on demand, and the actual demand has not been effectively enlarged. Wanhua, NPU, BASF and other manufacturers have slightly raised the March contract price. The mainstream price of the pure MDI spot market has climbed to 22000~23000 yuan / ton, but the downstream has been cautious about the procurement of high priced raw materials, and the overall market is expected to be dominated by sideways.

from the supply side, in the context of better profitability, spandex manufacturers resumed their jobs or increased their willingness to raise. As of the end of March, the overall operating rate of the industry rose to around 90%.

With the gradual improvement of social construction, the supply of the market gradually increased, especially the supply of low-end goods is increasing, while the high-end goods are still in a tight state.

from the demand side, with the recruitment problem being solved and the number of orders increasing, the operating rate of the downstream circular machines, yarn wrapping, cotton bags, warp knitting and other fields has increased to varying degrees, but the overall improvement is still limited.

Moreover, due to the slender production profit, the downstream's enthusiasm for raw material procurement is limited, basically maintaining the state of on-demand procurement.

overall, the spandex market has gradually entered a small peak season, but compared with previous years, spandex and downstream areas are more cautious, and there has been no pressure to go up.

As the spandex industry starts to upgrade and supply increases, the market price will increase slightly or enter the consolidation stage.

{page_break}

.

increase: 0%

viscose staple fiber /p >

multi space factors are sticking to each other .

contradiction between supply and demand to break the balance

Market Review

In the first quarter of P, viscose staple fiber market performance oscillates, prices rise first and then drop.

stage I: the rising stage.

In the 1~2 month, the overall operation of the viscose industry chain was good. The price of cotton pulp increased and the cost rose. The rigid demand of downstream cotton mills led to a rebound in production and sales. The market price of viscose staple fiber 1.5D x 38mm rose from 13700 yuan / ton at the end of last year to 15000 yuan / ton, or 9.49%.

second stage: fall down stage.

In March, the downstream cotton yarn enterprises closed their stock and converted to the raw material inventory. The new single contract volume gradually reduced, traders and chemical fiber manufacturers' quotations gradually loosened, and the viscose staple fiber 1.5D x 38mm Market Center price shifted from 15000 yuan / ton to 13700 yuan / ton, or 9%.

< outlook >

from the cost side, the mainstream of cotton pulp in Shandong area is 6700~6800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the short silk grade. At present, the official quotation is maintained at 7100 yuan / ton, even if the raw material purchase cost is calculated at the beginning of the year, the chemical fiber factory is also in the 14100~14400 yuan / ton line.

from the supply side, the current viscose staple fiber industry starts at a high level of 80% to 90%, and the overall industry inventory is near the level of 10 days.

However, with the support industry going higher than two months before the end of the first round, the market production and marketing began to stagnate at the 3~5 lows, and the contradiction between supply and demand will be resurfaced for a while.

"P" from the demand side, the recent cotton cloth market overall trend is flat, but for the seasonal very obvious cotton fabric, the peak season in April and May is expected to remain.

However, because of the slow speed of the human cotton yarn, the time for the use of raw material stock has been delayed, and some enterprises have expressed their desire for the end of 4 or the end of the month.

To sum up, in summary, the viscose staple fiber market is porous, and the key to the future market trend is whether the contradiction between supply and demand is intensifying. "P"

increase: -4.69% ~ -9.56%

polyester filament > /strong > /p >

strong > high yield has no continuity.

short increase is the temptation of many quotes /p >

Market Review

domestic production capacity is seriously overabundant, new production capacity has been launched and downstream busy season has not started up slowly. After the Spring Festival, the contradiction between supply and demand of polyester filament market has become increasingly prominent and difficult to reconcile, followed by a sharp shrinkage in market prices.

As of March 29, 2013, the cash mainstream prices of POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F and FDY150D/96F were respectively 10200~10600 yuan / ton, 12000~12300 yuan / ton, 10900~11000 yuan / ton, down 5% to 9% on the last trading day last month, 4% to 8% lower than the same period last year.

< outlook >

In the first quarter of P, the polyester filament market was stagnant. However, before and after the Qingming Festival, the market of polyester filament was changed, and the situation of "volume price rising" was showing.

The main reason is that the rebound of upstream raw materials PX, PTA and MEG has given the downstream weaving factories a good prospect for the future, while the chemical fiber manufacturers have not lost the opportunity to launch the strategy of increasing sales promotion, which has further increased the trading atmosphere of the market. The weaving activities of the downstream weaving factories are gradually reflected in the pre stocking action, and the mainstream production and marketing of the chemical fiber factory has increased to the level of 200% ~ 400%, and some of the higher production and sales have reached 500% to 800%.

however, before the downtrend has not changed, the current rise can also be bold to speculate as a market attracting market.

After a long period of sharp decline, there is a technical rebound demand in the Asian PX market, but it is not enough to form a sustained rise.

At present, some PTA factories and PX traders still have high priced stocks. In addition, Tenglong aromatic 800 thousand tons have been put into trial run. It is expected that the commodity volume will also be suppressed at the end of April or early May. The price of PX will be suppressed.

The other raw material MEG market is also not optimistic. Although there are overhaul plans for some Asian production facilities in Taiwan, South Asia and Lotte Asia, the storage capacity of the main ports in East China is still above 900 thousand tons, and the supply pressure in the short term can hardly be substantially reduced.

on the other hand, the market of polyester filament is rising more difficult, and it is difficult to form a trend market temporarily.

Because the terminal links have not been fully recovered, some regions such as the Guangdong market have not yet started, and the high-yield sales are not sustainable.

In addition, the pace of expansion has not yet been terminated.

It is reported that Jiangsu Hongtai 250 thousand tons of equipment is in commissioning stage. It is expected that products will be produced in the middle and late 4 months, and will continue to produce silk thread. Nantong Heng Ke 200 thousand ton plant will be put into operation at the end of April. It is expected that in May, the volume of goods exported, mainly producing half light FDY and 200 thousand tons of Huaxing tyre, will be put into operation in June, and mainly produce half light POY.

increase: -9.33%

polyester staple fiber /p >

short kinetic energy gradually released .

the odds of continued deep fall are smaller than /p >

Market Review

In the first quarter of P, the market trend of polyester staple fiber was mainly oscillating downward.

The upstream raw materials PTA and MEG broke down under the pressure of macro information gap and poor demand. The main contract of PTA futures of Zhengzhou Commercial Bank fell 9000 points, 8500 points and 8000 points all the way.

In the face of cost collapse, downstream yarn sales are slow and conservative, and chemical fiber plant inventory is increasing.

Chemical fiber manufacturers were forced to choose the idea of reducing prices and goods. As of March 29th, the mainstream price of polyester staple fiber 1.4D * 38mm Jiangsu and Zhejiang market dropped to 10150~10250 yuan / ton, or nearly 10%.

< outlook >

after the price war without a smoke, the market price of polyester staple fiber 1.4D * 38mm is once again approaching the 10000 yuan / ton integer mark, which is closer to the lowest level of the market at 9400 yuan / ton last year.

at present, the polyester staple factory generally loses 500~700 yuan / ton. In order to get rid of the situation of "high inventory and negative profits", it is bound to continue to implement the strategy of limiting production and keeping price.

By the time of press release, the overall operation rate of PET staple industry was near 60%.

In terms of installations, a set of 200 thousand tons of polymerization plant in Jinxing, Fujian, is scheduled to be shut down in early April. The device is equipped with polyester staple and polyester filament. It is expected that the maintenance time will last until the beginning of May.

Therefore, under the background of relatively low operating load in the industry, even if the market production and sales rate is low, the inventory growth rate of chemical fiber plant will be relatively slow.

on the other hand, the downstream pure polyester yarn market is still weak. The price of T32S in Fujian area is at 14100~14300 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.73% compared with the same period, down 8.97% from the same period last year.

Therefore, yarn enterprises are not active in purchasing raw materials, and most of them rely on buying and selling.

However, yarn enterprises do not expect the polyester staple fiber to fall further.

Because of the slow start of the end textile market this year, some cotton mills indicated that the new orders had only appeared since the Spring Festival, and the continuous decline of raw material prices is not conducive to the delivery of the yarn enterprises.

above all factors, after a long and uninterrupted decline, the short staple market's short kinetic energy is gradually released, and the price continues to fall deeply.

However, before throwing away the burden of "inventory", the price of chemical fiber plants will be difficult to raise, or the strategy of taking goods as the dominant factor will remain.