Performance Analysis Of Textile And Apparel Industry In The First Quarter Of 2013

Cotton prices are slowing down in February, and the price range is expected to be 18400-20500 throughout the year. The domestic output of 30 million tons of cotton yarn is close to the peak of China's spinning volume, and the demand for cotton is difficult to rise further. The cotton consumption is higher than that in 2012, and the stock of downstream gauze is not optimistic. These factors inhibit the sharp rise in cotton prices. Low cotton prices and inverted cotton prices at home and abroad are not good for cotton. Spin Enterprise.

Spin clothing Exports rebounded in January. In January 2013, China exported 24 billion 700 million yuan of textile and clothing, an increase of 14.74% over the same period, an increase of 2.5% over the same period. The January export picked up the wrong factor in the Spring Festival.

Clothing sales in the golden week of January and February declined. The retail growth rate of gold week clothing was only 6.3%, a 12.4 percentage point decline over the growth rate of last year's golden week. In January this year, the growth rate of 50 key large garment retailers in China was -12%. The clothing consumption data of the golden week allowed us to be cautious about the consumption figures in February.

Retail sales are expected to pick up in March. In view of the positive correlation between economic growth and the growth of clothing consumption, according to the forecast of the East China Sea macro group, the GDP growth rate in the 1 quarter of this year is forecast to be 8.1, which is basically the same as that of the first quarter of last year, but better than the 4 quarter of last year, we predict the 1 quarter of this year's clothing. shoes The retail sales growth rate of the cap is at 15%-18% (according to the total retail sales of consumer goods), and the sales growth rate in March will rise somewhat compared with that in 1,2 month.

The 1 quarter is expected to be a low performance for brand companies. As the industry's spring ordering growth is generally lower than last year, the pressure of the franchisee is bigger, and some listed companies still have the pressure of inventory digestion, and the base of the same period last year is relatively high, so the first quarter of this year is relatively high. Brand clothing The growth rate of listed companies will be lower in the whole year.

It is suggested that enterprises in the weak market should pay close attention to the fast developing period. The extension and expansion will be relatively fast and the income base will be low, and the growth rate of earnings will be higher. We predict that the two companies will get more than 30% growth in the first quarter. Some mature brand After the early expansion, garment enterprises are facing the transition from extensive growth to meticulous management and the improvement of supply chain.