Policy Led Cotton Price Trend, Internal And External Inventory Pressure Is Huge.

Policy dominates the recent market

< p > look at the dumping and storage situation for more than 1 months, the auction enthusiasm of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > textile enterprise < /a > is not high, and the turnover rate of cotton reserve basically keeps below 30%.

Recently, it is rumoured that the state will throw some new cotton into the stock market, and the old and new cotton will be matched in proportion to 3:7, and will be allowed to enter the circulation market, that is, it can be used for futures and matching market delivery.

The author believes that in the new year cotton planting period, the country is expected to continue a more stable cotton policy in order to stabilize cotton farmers' intention to plant cotton. Therefore, this policy is unlikely to be implemented during this period.

But once it is implemented, it will surely attract cotton companies to register their warehouse receipts in the futures market or sell them for value. Zheng cotton will face greater callback pressure.

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< p > data show that after large scale storage and storage, the amount of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com" > cotton circulation < /a > on the market is decreasing, and high-grade cotton is obviously scarce, which will support the spot and futures prices of cotton.

Judging from the survey, the cost of physical and chemical cotton planting is still on the rise, and labor costs are also increasing. The state departments concerned have announced the minimum protection price for rice and corn in the early stage, so it is estimated that the purchase and storage price of cotton in 2013 should last at least 20400 yuan / ton last year.

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< p > internal and external inventory pressure is huge. < /p >

< p > the most important factor in affecting cotton price trend is the supply and demand of basic cotton.

According to the latest USDA forecast data, this year, the world's total cotton output is 25 million 899 thousand tons, 23 million 131 thousand tons of consumption and 2 million 768 thousand tons of oversupply. The end of the world cotton inventory is 17 million 823 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio is as high as 77.05%.

China's production is expected to be 7 million 403 thousand tons and 7 million 729 thousand tons of consumption. Even if we do not consider the amount of imported cotton and cotton stocks in 2011, this year's < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > cotton supply < /a > is also quite sufficient; the end of the stock will be 9 million 270 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio will reach 119.86% historical highs.

Generally speaking, the supply of cotton in China and the whole world is very strong, but the demand is sluggish.

Compared with the high global inventory, China's inventory consumption ratio has reached an unprecedented level. The pressure on the cotton market is obvious.

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< p > the number of registered warehouse receipts is low (< /p >).

< p > according to statistics, as of March 1st, the cotton warehouse receipt registration volume of the exchange was only 249 (9 thousand and 960 tons), including 185 (7 thousand and 400 tons) old warehouse receipts in the previous year, which will flow out of the futures market by the end of March.

On the disk, the 1305 month contract is held at 30498 hands. According to the unilateral conversion, it is about 76 thousand tons. The 1309 month contract is held at 135 thousand hands. According to the unilateral conversion, it is about 337 thousand and 500 tons.

The situation of supply shortage in futures market is obvious, and futures contracts continue to move upward.

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< p > downstream consumption should not be ignored < /p >

< p > < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > textile industry < /a > Federation predicts that the economic performance of the textile industry in 2013 will show a trend of pre steady and high.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of customs, in January, China exported about 24 billion 691 million US dollars in textile and clothing, an increase of 14.74% over the same period last year, an increase of 2.45% over the month.

From the data point of view, the textile industry has not only improved exports, and internal demand is relatively strong, domestic sales have become an important guarantee for the growth of China's textile industry.

From this point of view, it seems that the textile industry has been developing at a big pace.

But it can not be overlooked that the higher price of labor and raw materials, resulting in the rising cost of enterprises, leading to a decline in the competitiveness of the textile industry in the international market. Therefore, in the data of textile consumption growth, there is also implied an increase in costs.

After eliminating this part, the actual profit growth of textile enterprises has not yet seen a big jump.

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< p > above analysis, cotton supply oversupply this year has laid a weak pattern of cotton price operation.

With the implementation of the cotton selling policy, although the overall grade has improved, the enthusiasm of the textile enterprises is still not high, reflecting the current market consumption in the downturn.

It is estimated that cotton prices will continue to run 19700 to 20200 intervals in the short term before the adjustment of national policies.

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