The Value Of Defensive Investment In Textile And Garment Sector

Plate market trend: this week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell -6.32%, Shen Wan Spin The overall decline of the clothing sector -1.57%, in the market adjustment period, defensive attributes highlighted. Among them, the textile manufacturing sector fell -0.25%, the clothing home textile plate fell by -2.73%.

Valuation: Textile clothing This week, the overall PE is 19.17, PB is 2.01, and PE and PB are at a low historical value (7 weeks' data).

Market sentiment: this week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 turnover rate decreased, and the turnover rate of textile and garment sector increased. In recent 5 days, the capital inflow rate was -2.41%, and the ninth industries in Li Shen Wan. Industry news: (1) outdoor professional shops, three pressure encirclement, planning transformation; (2) cotton throwing storage near, the new Chen ratio is 3:7; (3) the Ministry of Commerce plans to increase the quota of textile processing trade; (4) the growth rate of luxury goods industry has dropped to single digit, and Gucci has suspended shop in China; (5) the consumer confidence index of euro area in February is mediocre.

Company dynamics: (1) Mei Bang dress (002269): the company will issue 800 million yuan short term financing certificate for 365 days in February 27th; (2) Hinur (002485): last year, the revenue growth rate was 2.76%, net profit fell 27.85% last year; (3) card Nu Di Road (002656): the 28 shares will be released on sale on the 28 of this month.

　 　 Industry investment strategy:

[textile manufacturing] suggests paying close attention to the recent investment opportunities of textile manufacturing enterprises. The logic of making judgments is as follows: 1. textile and garment export data show a warming trend in recent months; 2.2011Q4 and 2012Q1 textile manufacturing companies have relatively low performance base; 3. every March is the traditional manufacturing season, and the statistical law shows that the textile manufacturing industry has a greater probability of winning the market in the first quarter. It is suggested that we actively pay attention to the industry leader Lu Tai A (000726).

Statistics of the Ministry of Commerce and statistics of 50 major retail enterprises show that during January and Spring Festival Domestic clothing sales Flat performance, we judge that the bottom of the fundamentals of the textile and garment industry is also coming at the very end of 2013Q2. In the short term, it can be concerned that the real estate data rebound and the big promotion anticipation have brought the investment opportunities of the home textile sector, focusing on Luo Lai home textile (002293) and fuanna (002327). In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about locating the middle and low end, with high growth potential and strong performance in search of special (002503) and Pathfinder (300005).