Cotton Market Trend Analysis Shock Support

< p > strong > < < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp > cotton market > /a > performance > /strong > /p >

< p > cotton main contract price rises and shocks.

The corn index price opened at 19680 yuan / ton.

Early morning rise, the morning shock interval in the 19790~19885 yuan / ton, the afternoon shock of 19804~19845 yuan / ton, late shocks, and closed at 19810 yuan / ton.

< /p >

< p > < strong > market analysis < /strong > < /p >

< p > zhengmian 09 rose to 19885 yuan / ton high point, reduced 1 thousand and 200 hands, clinch a deal 70 thousand hands, the deal was deserted.

Market accelerated after the withdrawal, Zheng cotton technology is still in the air, holding a downward view.

09 support 19650, resistance 19856, 19899~19902 yuan / ton.

< /p >

< p > < strong > [market concern] < /strong > < /p >

< p > February 18th, the domestic cotton quotations were stable, and the national cotton price A index (CNCotton A) representing the 229 grade cotton prices in the mainland was 20110 tons, which was unchanged from February 7th. The B index (CNCotton B), representing the 328 grade cotton price in the mainland, was 19282 tons, up 1 yuan over February 7th.

< /p >

< p > February 18th, fixing the disk oscillation is difficult, the contract price varies at the end of the month, the contract has a big decline in recent months, the total volume and the order quantity increase slightly.

Among them, MA1302 closed at 18800 yuan, the average price of 18990 yuan, fell 234 yuan; MA1303 closed at 19950 yuan, the average price of 19943 yuan, down 80 yuan; MA1305 closed at 19650 yuan, the average price of 19649 yuan, flat; the total turnover of 10540 tons, compared with the previous trading day increased 60 tons; the total order quantity was 16720 tons, increased by 60 tons.

< /p >

< p > policy continues to stabilize the market, the internal and external spreads tend to shrink < /p >

Since the middle of January, with the release of the reserve cotton policy, the a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > textile < /a > the problem of tighter cotton use has been alleviated, the domestic spot price has been stable, and the domestic futures and international market fluctuated greatly.

After the Spring Festival, how the market forces will evolve and how the cotton market will run in the future will be discussed in this monthly report.

< /p >

During the Spring Festival (P), domestic spot prices remained stable, and international cotton prices were weak, and domestic cotton yarn prices remained relatively stable.

Anhui insisted on buying during the Wuwei Festival, and the price of cotton by-products increased by less than /p.

After the Spring Festival, the purchasing market of Anhui's Wuwei cotton has become more and more deserted. The processing work of 50% of this year's cotton mill has basically ended. The processing enterprises that are not finished are expected to end in half a month, the longest not more than 20 days. It is understood that during the festival, some local enterprises insist on purchasing.

In February 14th, the price of seed cotton reached 4 yuan and 4.36 yuan per kilograms, and the purchase price of seed cotton could not be stored at 3.5-2.8 yuan / Jin.

Cottonseed prices have risen slightly, at 1.25 yuan / Jin, the price of cottonseed whose yield is not up to standard is between 1.1-1.2 yuan / Jin.

Cotton lint prices also rose slightly, and the highest price of the 2 categories of lint has reached 4000 yuan / ton, up 400 yuan / ton compared with a year ago.

< /p >

< p > up to now, some cotton enterprises in Dali, Shaanxi, have already received a holiday. In February 16th, two local 400 enterprises started to purchase, and cotton farmers only had sporadic cotton in their hands. The purchase price of local cotton seed was at the same level as that before the holiday, of which 3 seed cotton was 8 yuan / kg, 4 class 7.80 yuan / kg, flower 7.60 yuan / kg, 5 grade 7 yuan / kg.

There are about 1500 tons of lint storehouse in the enterprise, and the sales pressure is not great. The selling price of grade 3 lint sale is 19700-19900 yuan / ton, 4 class 19000 yuan / ton, 5 grade 17000-17200 yuan / ton (gross weight, ticket, self raised, cash).

In addition, the price of local cotton by-products is stable, a short pile of 5400 yuan / ton, two short linen 4400 yuan / ton, cashmere 4000 yuan / ton, and wool cotton seed 2400 yuan / ton.

India: the listing of new cotton has dropped further than the previous year. Although the picking time of India cotton is later than that of previous years, the gap between the total amount of new cotton and the same period of last year is narrowing.

Data show that as of February 10th this year, India's new cotton has been on the market for 3 million 118 thousand tons, down 3.1% from the same period last year, of which the volume of listing in the north and the south is higher than that in last year, but the central region has dropped significantly.

At present, the India Cotton Association (CAI) has increased the latest forecast of India cotton production in this year by 8500 tons, reaching 6 million 14 thousand tons, which is about 340 thousand tons more than the latest USDA forecast. However, CAI's forecast also decreased by 5.2% compared to the same period last year.

From the chart below, we can see that the difference between India's new cotton market and the same period last year has narrowed from the original 30% to the current 3%. If the gap is further narrowed in the next few weeks, then India's a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > production is expected to increase from a decreasing trend, and the organization will also increase the India cotton production forecast this year.

< /p >

< p > < strong > [operation suggestion] < /strong > /p >

< p > strategic hold 09, stop at 19902 yuan / ton, pay attention to 19650 yuan / ton line support.

< /p >