Several Major Institutions In February 5, 2013 -- Cotton Futures

< p > < strong > [one de a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp > > futures < /a >" air gap "is added to Zheng cotton weak shock < /strong > /p >

< p > CF1309 low volatility on Monday. CF1309 closed more than 22.9 hands, and its position increased sharply.

CF1309 closed at 20200 yuan / ton, down 85 yuan / ton, increased 15964 positions; in February 4th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 90.99 cents / pound, up 0 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 14565 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 15433 yuan / ton.

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< p > according to the news of New York in February 4th, the price of cotton futures fell from the recent high level on Monday. As the US dollar rose, registered stocks increased, and speculative buying of cotton during the last two years was pushed back.

The most active March period of the ICE was about 1.24 cents or 1.5%, and the settlement was 81.74 cents per pound.

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< p > in February 4th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 10060 tons, down 400 tons from the previous paction.

The order quantity is reduced by 80 tons, and the total order is 16960 tons.

On the 4 day, the contract was opened, and within a wide range of days, the end of the market was mixed.

On the basic level, with the Spring Festival approaching, the enterprises that are closed for business this week are increasing, cotton spot trading is slack, and the downstream weaving mills have basically shut down their annual leave. The textile market of China Textile City has entered the market since today, and dyeing mills and mills have been stopping for a holiday.

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< p > on Monday, Zheng cotton low concussion. At present, the market does not support more than 20 thousand of the price. There is also a need for adjustment in technology. After the daily limit, the Bulls continue to exert momentum, but their positions continue to increase. The price has not fallen. The difference is quite large. The time window is coming this week. If the market fails to break through 20 thousand points a year ago, the empty part can be partially reduced. Today, the operation suggests that the price range of CF1309 is 19900-20300.

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< p > < strong > [MEIKO futures] before the Spring Festival, the purchase and sale stagnation Zheng cotton range concussion < /strong > < /p >

< p > overnight overnight, 4 days, the US dollar index rose and the general market setback fell to the market, which affected the market. After being opened, the ICE cotton market fell all the way, and finally dropped more than 100 points. The volume remained at a higher level, most of which were trading in the warehouse.

At present, the registered cotton stocks reached 144271 packs, the highest level since May 2012, and the increasing pressure on the market is more obvious.

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< p > international market. On the 4 day, the quotations of China's main ports of imported cotton remain stable.

Recently, the price of foreign futures has stagnated, and the Chinese market before the Spring Festival has become calm.

However, because China's domestic prices are still high, the relevant government documents are aimed at stabilizing agricultural production, and the overall environment inside and outside the cotton market is generally stable.

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< p > domestic market. On the 4 day, domestic cotton spot price is still relatively stable. With the Spring Festival approaching, domestic a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > textile < /a > the number of enterprises stopping to leave is increasing. Cotton purchasing strategy is generally adopted. The purchasing power is not enough, and the market outlook is hard to predict. The overall turnover is light, and the proportion of recent pactions is below 30%.

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< p > National Reserve dynamics: 1. As of February 1st, the cumulative output of reserve cotton in 2013 was 391684.98 tons.

2, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage pactions totaled 6153100 tons.

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"P > spot quotation, American C/A cotton 98.35 (cents / pound), port delivery price 16185 yuan / ton (according to sliding tax), Australia cotton 102.10, port delivery price 16682 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 100.1, port delivery price 16402 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 93.10, port delivery price 15557 yuan / ton; India cotton 90.35, port delivery price 15242 yuan / ton.

CNCotton A 20111 yuan / ton; CNCotton B19286 yuan, down 2 yuan.

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< p > market analysis. As the Spring Festival is approaching, the state reserve cotton is out of stock, and the textile enterprises are closed down for a long time. The spot price of lint is still dominated by stability.

The key pressure above Zheng cotton contract 05 is 20540.

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< p > operation, empty single back is held by 20320.

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< p > < strong > [Wanda futures] extended paction to US cotton fall < /strong > /p >

< p > although the ICE cotton has maintained a good momentum in the near term, it has not yet been able to break through the pressure level of 84 cents per pound. The funds began to shift to the May contract, and the trading market dominated the recent market. Cotton prices suffered a lot of single profit selling. The contract in March fell 1.24 cents to 81.74 cents per pound, while the May contract fell 0.98 cents to 82.57 cents / pound, but the forward contract closed slightly higher, and the overall market was mixed. The short term callback did not change the long-term trend.

It is expected that cotton prices will continue to challenge the pressure level of 84 cents / pound after a short correction after good export data and expected cotton planting area.

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< p > ICE cotton in mid May closed, the main contract in May continued to challenge 84 cents / pound pressure level failure, but it is still far away from short-term average line support, the average system maintained a good long range rise, KD and MACD indicators continue to rise in a row, rising trend does not change.

But the MACD index is shortened, the callback pressure is increased, the short line callback may continue, and the short term average line's support for cotton price is concerned.

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< p > at present, it is difficult to solve the tension problem of Zheng cotton warehouse receipt. A lot of cotton enterprises have to leave the market due to fear of forcing the warehouse to take off. Speculative capital has become the main force in the market. Whether there is a major difference in whether the central storage cotton will sell new cotton and allow it to enter the market after March will become the main market.

But the fundamentals are still weak. By the beginning of February 2nd, storage and storage were suspended. The textile enterprises entered the Spring Festival holiday. The double impact of throwing and importing cotton made the spot cotton price remain weak. The trend of Zheng cotton was completely out of line with the fundamentals.

Therefore, although Zheng cotton has maintained an upward trend due to the shortage of warehouse receipts, it is not recommended to catch up.

It is suggested that the cotton enterprises should open up new battlefields in the 1401 contract, avoid the risk of making a risk, and increase their holdings by 20000 yuan / ton.

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< p > < strong > [Hongyuan futures] today zhengmian or affected by the external market < /strong > < /p >

< p > key points < /p >

< p > 1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20992 yuan / ton; 229 class 20116 yuan / ton; 328 level 19293 yuan / ton; 428 grade 18686 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 11420 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14560 yuan / ton; C32S price 25880 yuan / ton.

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< p > 2. domestic stock: 4, the spot price of domestic cotton is still relatively stable. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the number of domestic textile enterprises has increased and the number of suspension enterprises has increased. Cotton purchasing strategy is generally adopted, and the purchasing strength is not enough. Moreover, the market outlook is hard to predict, and the overall turnover is clear and the proportion of recent pactions is below 30%.

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< p > 3. cotton imports: in February 4th, the quotation of main ports of imported cotton remained stable.

Recently, the price of foreign futures has stagnated, and the Chinese market before the Spring Festival has become calm.

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< p > 4. cotton reserve put into operation: in February 1st, China cotton reserve management company plans to sell and reserve cotton 80146.49 tons, and the actual turnover is 22891.55 tons, with a turnover rate of 28.56%.

On the same day, the average level of pactions was 3.86, the average length was 28.28, the average paction price was 18799 yuan / ton, and the 328 class paction price was 19232 yuan / ton (public weight).

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< p > 5.ICE cotton: in February 4th, the US dollar index rose and the commodity market generally fell down to the market, which affected the market. After the opening of the ICE period, cotton fell all the way, and finally dropped more than 100 points. The volume of trading remained at a high level, most of which were trading in the warehouse.

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< p > summary: < /p >

< p > < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > zhengmian < /a > market, the important point is that after high grade cotton flows into the national reserve, the cotton warehouse receipt becomes limited, which becomes an important reason for the multi headed business.

In this process, buying is not to buy cotton, but the meaning of Zheng cotton market as a "trading channel" is weakened, and in the short term it is also a battleground.

Once war starts, it has little to do with the reasons for the shooting.

Although both 1305 and 1309 are in storage, the author believes that during the period of storage and withdrawal, the significance of CF1305 as a "selling channel" is obviously better than that of the storage.

CF1305 contracts in 19500 to 20500 large areas, capital confrontation means strong, basically do not have channel significance.

Affected by the collapse of the peripheral market, Zheng cotton is likely to fall back today.

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