Cotton Futures In January 11, 2013

　　 [Hongyuan futures] the new round of cotton regulation has little influence on Zheng cotton.

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20939 yuan / ton; 229 level 20066 yuan / ton; 328 level 19240 yuan / ton; 428 grade 18625 yuan / ton. domestic Spin Product: polyester staple fiber 11410 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14110 yuan / ton; C32S price 25820 yuan / ton.

2. domestic spot: at present, there is a shortage of high-grade cotton resources in textile mills. However, due to the expectations of textile enterprises for throwing and storing, the procurement of cotton is cautious and the demand for import quotas is urgent. At present, the enterprises think it is imperative to abandon the reserves. Now they are only concerned about how to develop the dumping and reserve prices after throwing the reserve and the possible macroeconomic control mode that will throw the reserves and quotas into bundles. These become the focus of the current cotton market.

3. cotton imports: in January 10th, the price of imported cotton in China's main port fell slightly, and all varieties fell by 0.25 cents. At present, textile mills are active in foreign cotton enquiry. On the one hand, they are preparing for quotas for the state. On the other hand, the price advantage of cotton is still obvious, especially the India cotton quotation is still cost-effective with 40% full customs tariff clearance.

4. export data: according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in December 2012, China's textiles clothing Exports amounted to US $24 billion 100 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.91%, an increase of 10.84% over the same period last year.

5. cotton purchase and storage: as of January 9th, the total annual turnover of cotton temporary storage and storage in 2012 was 5401930 tons, 1697760 tons in the mainland, 2427520 tons in Xinjiang, and 1276650 tons in backbone enterprises.

6.ICE cotton: in January 9th, traders waited for the USDA supply and demand report. They were cautious in their trading, while the decline in the ICE cotton futures market was widened. However, the intervention of the fund purchase limit the decline of cotton prices, and the contract continued to maintain a trend of oscillation in March.

Summary:

The new round of bundled reserve cotton sale actually reestablishes a market between the "government" and "cotton enterprises", and is relatively isolated from China's cotton social circulation market. In this "new market", enterprises choose whether to buy according to their own operating conditions. Judging from the selling price of 19000 yuan / ton of grade three cotton, they do not constitute a suppressing effect on the cotton price of social circulation, and can be characterized as "neutral". In view of Zheng cotton's reflection on the price of China's cotton social circulation, I believe that Zheng cotton's contract in May will continue to maintain a narrow trend in a longer period of time. Above 19500 yuan / ton and below 19000 yuan / ton are worth noting.

　 [MEIKO futures] policy is ready to shake out Zheng cotton range

Overnight, 10 days, the ICE cotton market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, volume shrinking, investors wait for USDA supply and demand report direction, March contract rose 41 points, continue to adjust in the recent oscillation range. It is widely expected that the US cotton supply and demand will become more intense, but the global cotton consumption may be reduced and China will reduce imports of foreign cotton due to dumping and storage.

In the international market, 10 days, the price of China's main port of import cotton fell slightly, and all varieties dropped by 0.25 cents. From the market situation, with the arrival of imported cotton, and China is about to start dumping, so the market resources are adequate, and cotton prices are facing downward pressure. At present, the difference between cotton prices inside and outside is more obvious. Once the textile factory gets the quota, the outer cotton will be the first choice for the textile mill.

Domestic market, 10 days, domestic cotton Spot prices continued to rise slightly. Recently, the market focus is on the throwing and storage. The inevitable pressure of spot sales is expected. The market expects that the reserve price will be set at 19000 yuan / ton, which is lower than the current spot market price of 20400 yuan / ton, which may lead to a fall in the domestic cotton market price. However, the reserve cotton is put in accordance with the demand of textile enterprises for cotton use, and it is expected that the negative impact of domestic cotton prices will be very limited.

State Reserve dynamics, January 10th temporary storage and storage of 37480 tons, as of that date, 2012 cotton temporary purchase and storage transactions totaled 5439410 tons.

Spot quotation, in January 10th, CNCotton A 20095 yuan / ton, up 5 yuan; CNCotton B 19270 yuan, up 5 yuan. The price of C/A cotton in the United States is 90.85 (cents / pound), the port delivery price is 15364 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax), Australia cotton 95.85, port delivery price is 15944 yuan / ton, Uzbekistan cotton 92.85, port delivery price 15592 yuan / ton, West African cotton 86.35, port delivery price 14868 yuan / ton, India cotton 83.85, port delivery price 14604 yuan / ton.

Market analysis, policy is still the main guarantee for stable prices, but the reserve cotton and cotton quota binding payment is approaching, textile enterprises on the lint spot market and the procurement of cotton have been suppressed, coupled with the closure of enterprises near the new year, the weak consumer link will be cold, will also suppress the cotton price situation. Zheng cotton 05 19300-18950 yuan / ton shock.

Operation, the 19300-18950 interval operation. {page_break}

[German futures] waiting for supply and demand report Zheng cotton shocks

On Thursday, CF1305 was in a narrow concussion, and CF1305 closed 27 thousand hands. CF1305 closed at 19265 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton, reduced 152 hand; in January 10th, China imported cotton (FC Index M) 85.82 cents / pound, fell 0.15 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13775 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14877 yuan / ton.

According to New York's January 10th news, US cotton futures rose on Thursday, and the market waited for Friday's announcement of USDA's January supply and demand report. The ICE cotton contract rose 0.6% to 75.20 cents a pound in March.

In January 10th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 10400 tons, down 180 tons from the previous trading day. Orders increased by 140 tons, totaling 23010 tons. On the 10 day, the opening of the contracts was different. On the basic level, according to China cotton information network December textile enterprises and cotton enterprises survey, we can see that the market available cotton resources are relatively few, textile enterprises slightly changed the mentality of the market. The current dumping details are not yet fully publicized, and continue to focus on subsequent dumping details.

On Thursday, Zheng cotton was in a narrow concussion. Due to the recent important events, the market was in a state of contraction and shock. Today, we expect to continue to wait for the direction of the shock. The evening USDA report and the throwing and storing rules that may be launched on Monday need to be focused. Investors can buy in dips, and arbitrage operations can continue to hold. Today's operation suggests buying a bargain or buying a 9 combination of 5, and the CF1305 reference price range is 19100-19300.

[Wanda futures] exports of good cotton in the United States before the USDA monthly high

Although the market expects the monthly supply and demand report released on Friday will continue to reduce global consumption, but as of January 3rd, the US cotton contract signed 44566 tons of land cotton this year and shipped 58219 tons. Good export data supported ICE cotton and the March contract closed 0.41 cents to 75.2 cents / pound. Although global consumption is weak, China's large supply and storage has led to a decrease in market supply, and the index fund's recent adjustment is expected to increase the proportion of ICE cotton. Multiple factors will support ICE cotton and continue to pay attention to the support position of 74 cents / pound.

Thursday ICE cotton Xiao Yang reported, but KD and MACD indicators continue to fall short, MACD index green column growth, callback pressure is not reduced, the cross plate is expected to continue, concerned about the March contract 74 cents / pounds support position, if the support is lost, the target will be 70 cents / pound line, otherwise it will continue the medium term rebound pattern continues to challenge 78 cents / pound pressure level.

The domestic market is getting closer and closer to rumor throwing and storing dates. The 14 day began to sell 900 thousand tons of reserves at a price of 19000 yuan / ton. The probability of Chen cotton's reinspection net weight settlement has certain competitiveness, which will lead textile enterprises to buy into the national reserve market. On the other hand, imported cotton has come to Hong Kong one after another. But before the Spring Festival, consumption and exports have not improved. The oversupply of short-term market will inhibit spot cotton prices and the popularity of Zhengzhou cotton market. Although the resources of zhengmian warehouse receipt are scarce, it is still difficult to attract speculation and consumer buying intervention. Zheng cotton It does not have a rising base, and continues to increase its holdings by 19400 yuan / tonne pressure level.