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China'S Cotton Production Boom Declined Sharply In 2012

2013/1/7 12:52:00 24

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China Cotton Research Institute, national < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > industrial technology system research points out that China's cotton production prosperity index (CCPPI) for the first time in 2012 has dropped sharply in the past 10 years, from 235 in January to 185 in October, and back to 199 in December.

2013/14 will linger around the 200 point.

forecast the economic trend of cotton industry in 2013: cotton output increased at a high level or slightly increased, cotton consumption resumed growth, cotton planting area decreased and imports decreased significantly; cotton prices showed a weakening trend.

< a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > consumption < /a > weakness, excess and "intervention failure" are the main problems facing the cotton industry at present.

Characteristics and problems of cotton industry in strong > January and 2012

(1) 2012 is a harvest year, .

the first is the reduction of seeding area.

Under the influence of "falling and rising" unfavorable factors, in 2012, the total sown area was 76 million 100 thousand mu, and the reduction of 5 million 140 thousand Mu was 6.3%.

The two is the increase in unit production.

According to monitoring, China's cotton growth index (CCGI) is 105, indicating that cotton growth is better than half a year ago.

The total yield per unit area was 94.1kg/ mu, an increase of 5.6%, with the largest increase in North Xinjiang and the Yellow River plain.

Three, the total output is basically flat.

The monitoring results showed that the increase in production per unit area basically offset the reduction in area. The total output was 7 million 164 thousand tons, which was basically the same as that of 7 million 236 thousand tons in 2011, an increase of 564 thousand tons over the 6 million 600 thousand tons of the National Bureau of Statistics, an increase of 8.6%.

The four is the increase in output value, the increase in cost and the increase in net income by 20%.

(two) the new cotton < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > market < /a > runs smoothly, the price disadvantaged goes down; the cotton price declines sharply, and the domestic and foreign spreads increase

the first is the price of the National Farmers' seed cotton is 7.97 yuan / kg, which is slightly lower than the 8.04 yuan / kg in the same period last year.

Without the support of temporary purchasing and storage policy, the price of new cotton will drop to a low level in 2008.

Two, domestic and foreign cotton prices continue to decline.

China's cotton price index (CC Index328) is 18917 yuan / ton, a decrease of 26.1%.

The Cotlook A index is 89.24 cents / pound, a decrease of 41.7%.

The Cotlook A index is equivalent to the average price of RMB 13375 yuan / ton, and the domestic price is 5542 yuan / ton, so that the black market resale price of imported cotton quota index has soared to 3000 yuan / ton.

(three) cotton imports are high in innovation and high in storage and storage. The innovation is high > /p >

Import innovation is high.

Imports of 4 million 606 thousand tons in 1-11 months, an increase of 2 million 33 thousand tons, an increase of 79%.

1-10 months, imports amounted to US $10 billion 127 million, an increase of 55.2% compared with the same period last year. The average price of imported cotton was 2356 US dollars / ton, about 14843 yuan / ton, lower than the domestic 4500 yuan / ton.

The two is collecting and storing.

From September to December 28th, the cumulative storage and storage capacity of 5 million 301 thousand tons increased by 167.1% over the same period, up from 60.6% in 2011, accounting for 75% of the total output in 2012.

The average price of collection and storage is 19395 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.2% over the same period, but it is 5.9% lower than the temporary purchase price.

(four) cotton yarn production increased, cotton production decreased, textile exports and consumption showed a weak trend

one is 1~11 cotton production 26 million 926 thousand tons, an increase of 13.5% over the same period.

Cotton production 34 billion 640 million meters, an increase of -3.3% over the same period.

Two, exports of textiles and clothing were US $230 billion 890 million, a slight decrease of -0.4% compared to the same period last year.

Three, domestic consumption growth is weak.

In the 1-11 month, the retail sales volume of enterprises (units), clothing, shoes and hats and knitwear increased by 18.2% over the same period, and the growth rate dropped by 6.9 percentage points.

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two and 2013, cotton industry development trend analysis

(P) (1) the global economic growth and trade prospects are slightly better than in 2012, but also more uncertain.

The slow growth trend of the world economy will continue in the period of 2013. (central economic work conference), the main developed economies are weak and there is a risk of falling into recession again. The fall of the United States into the "fiscal cliff" has increased the uncertainty of the economy.

But the economic outlook is good, the growth rate has recovered, is expected to be 3.6%, Global trade will rebound, expected to grow 4.5%, better than in 2012.

The quantitative easing policy from the US, Europe and Japan will increase the risk of imported inflation, capital mobility, asset bubbles and price inflation, but it also has a positive effect on stimulating export trade.

(two) the pressure of domestic inventory increases, and the excess of digestion is still less than /p.

2013 CCPPI will continue the trend of 200 points, which is the consequence of consumption weakness, overcapacity and market intervention.

In 2012, the new cotton reserves were estimated to be about 5 million 500 thousand tons, plus 3 million 300 thousand tons of storage in 2011, and cotton reserves as high as about 9 million tons.

From textile perspective, consumption has dropped to below 10 million tons in recent two years.

From the perspective of resource balance, inventory in 2012 will reach 7 million 765 thousand tons, which is also the first time over 10 years.

Under strict control of import conditions, the pattern of oversupply of cotton is expected to continue for a period of time before digestion.

(three) excessive resources inhibit production, and cotton planting area has a decreasing trend

excess resources and oversupply will inhibit production.

However, China's status as a major cotton consuming country will not change. Maintaining the stability of cotton production is extremely important for ensuring the effective supply of this staple agricultural product.

According to the monitoring and early warning data of cotton production in China, the cotton planting area will be reduced due to the weak market, import shock and cost increase, management, labor and local disasters.

(four) textile and clothing exports and consumption are expected to rise steadily,

1. At the end of 2012, the domestic economy began to stabilize and recover.

China is optimistic about China's economy in 2013, and GDP growth is expected to rise to 8.4%.

Against this background, the environment of cotton textile industry will be improved, production capacity will be recovered and inventory digestion will be accelerated.

The cotton textile industry has been pferred to the market after baptism of high priced cotton and has been closed down.

However, after all, the textile industry is a livelihood industry and a labor-intensive industry. Its social responsibilities are comparable to the industry itself, and the contradiction between overcapacity and overcapacity is the focus of industrial restructuring.

Two, the consumption capacity of the residents has picked up.

It is predicted that textile consumption will rise to 20%.

Three, the industry believes that China's clothing exports will remain low growth for a long time.

In November 2012, the turnover of textile and clothing in Canton Fair dropped by 15.5% compared with the previous period.

However, exports have also resumed growth under the policy of quantitative easing in the US, Europe and Japan.

three, developing cotton production suggestion

(1) increase the intensity of science and technology to develop agriculture, and innovate the cotton production service management mode

1, speed up scientific and technological innovation and increase the intensity of science and technology in cotton production.

New progress has been made in the selection of machine picked cotton varieties; speeding up the light simplification, standardization and mechanization technology integration and integrated innovation research, increasing the intensity of light simplified seedling pplanting and popularizing, and making new progress in the research and demonstration of machine picked cotton; strengthening the prediction and forecasting of diseases and insect pests; doing well the comprehensive prevention and control of diseases and insect pests; and giving full play to the integration and innovation of the "thousand jin cotton" and leading the exemplary role.

2, innovating service management mode and developing modern cotton planting industry.

In the final analysis, the competition of cotton is the competition between technology and service. The pformation of cotton production mode is in the final analysis the pformation of technological innovation and business mode.

As pointed out in the eighteen major reports, "a new type of agricultural management system that combines intensification, specialization, organization and socialization".

Base construction, high yield creation and all kinds of project investment should be innovated in intensification, specialization, organization and socialization service system and operation mode.

(two) continue to implement the temporary purchasing and storage policy, study the measures to digest inventory and strictly control import

1, continue to implement the policy of temporary collection and storage, and effectively protect the interests of farmers.

Although the cost of physicochemical production in cotton production rose in 2012 and wheat prices increased by 9.8% in 2013, cotton should also be raised in comparison with wheat.

However, it is appropriate to comprehensively balance domestic and foreign prices in order to stabilize the temporary purchase and storage price.

However, temporary storage is indeed a double-edged sword. While protecting the interests of farmers, it also raises the price of domestic cotton. The great price difference has greatly weakened the competitiveness of textile industry.

To this end, cotton textile industry has repeatedly called for the temporary purchase and storage as a direct subsidy is worth studying.

Some people put forward the implementation of the "year-end tax rebate" for farmers, and refund the value-added tax paid indirectly by farmers to purchase agricultural materials. According to the calculation, the "dark tax" amounted to 500 billion yuan in the whole country, and the amount of cultivated land was reduced to 274 yuan / mu in 18.24 mu, and Xinjiang returned about 400 yuan per mu. It might as well try in Xinjiang first.

2, the study introduced policies and measures for digestion and storage of cotton.

It includes increasing the country's reserves to 3 million tons, selling temporary storage and storage cotton at the futures price, making up the difference between the countries, or importing cotton with domestic cotton in 2006, but the time for excess digestion should be delayed.

3, strictly controlling imports.

In principle, no quota should be added, so as to digest domestic cotton stocks as soon as possible, reduce pressure and cotton impact.