Market Analysis Of GF Futures On Cotton Market In December 14, 2012

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< p > Cotton (19205,20.00,0.10%) main contract price rises and falls.

The index period of Maize (2440, -1.00, -0.04%) was opened at 19160 yuan per ton.

Early morning rise, the morning plate fell shocks hit a high point of 19240 yuan / ton, the afternoon shock interval of 19150~19185 yuan / ton, late shocks, and closed at 19180 yuan / ton.

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< p > < strong > market analysis < /strong > < /p >

< p > ZHENG cotton rose to a high level of 19240 yuan / ton in the morning of 05, with 8 thousand and 900 hands reduced, and the volume contracted to 67 thousand.

Many commodities have callbacks, especially PTA (8086, -58.00, -0.71%) withdraws more or less.

Of course, the purchase and storage of cotton prices continued to remain stable.

Cotton prices continue to oscillate.

Support 19000 yuan / ton, resistance 19400 yuan / ton.

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< p > < strong > [market concern] < /strong > < /p >

< p > domestic cotton quotations continue to rise, the national cotton price A index (CNCottonA) is 19909/ tons, up 17 yuan over the 12 day, and the national cotton price B index (CNCottonB) is 19079 tons, up 15 yuan compared with 12 days.

Hebei: the spot market is slightly loose, and the yarn market is not sealed. Recently, the Hebei Office of the national cotton market monitoring system conducted a survey on the inventory situation of several large textile enterprises in Hebei province. The results showed that the cotton stocks of textile enterprises were generally low and cotton usage continued to decrease. Recently, some of the new cotton which were not qualified by the public inspection went into the local spot market, but most of the enterprises still chose cotton.

At present, cotton yarn sales in Hebei province are still deserted, which is affected by the recent rise in cotton prices. The cost of spinning cotton yarn has increased, but the price of yarn has been rising slowly. Especially, the price of high-grade cotton yarn produced by 100% cotton spinning in Xinjiang is unable to catch up the cost of raw materials, and the pressure of operation is greater.

In December 12th, the mainstream price of pure cotton yarn C32S was 25500-26000 yuan / ton, the higher price was 26500-27000 yuan / ton, a small number of pactions, textile enterprises generally do not optimistic about the market outlook, that the recent yarn market is still difficult to get out of the decline.

Shandong's Linqing price has increased steadily, and sales progress has been accelerated. In the past week, the temperature of Linqing in Shandong has obviously decreased, the lowest temperature is below 10 degrees Celsius, and the highest temperature during the day is no more than 3 degrees Celsius.

However, the cold weather did not affect the hot market of the local cotton purchase market, the seed cotton purchase continued to maintain a good momentum, the acquisition of enterprises to buy and sell, and the cotton farmers to actively sell, forming the current more normal acquisition status. Since entering December, the local seed cotton purchase price has basically maintained a stable state, 3 seed cotton, 37% of the clothes, 8% of the moisture content, the purchase price is 4.15-4.20 yuan / Jin, the 4 grade seed cotton, the clothing is more than 35%, the purchase price is between 4.00-4.13 yuan / Jin, the stable purchase price has stimulated the enthusiasm of cotton growers to sell seed cotton, and some cotton farmers have been able to initiate the sale with cotton traders, and the seed cotton sale has been accelerating again and again.

It is understood that the current cotton seed sales progress of around 50%, lower than the same period last year around 10%.

However, with the arrival of the new year, the sales progress is expected to further accelerate. New Year's day and Spring Festival are also the climax stage for the sale of local seed cotton. At present, the daily purchases of various businesses have increased to varying degrees, generally maintaining around 5-8 Jin, or more than 10-15 Jin Jin.

Some cotton field contractors, cotton growers and cotton brokers still have a certain number of high quality seed cotton, and the price of 3 grade seed cotton with 40% lint percentage is still over 9.10 yuan / kg. These cotton growers and cotton brokers sell most of the good price for most of the cotton enterprises that are well funded by the Aksu Suxi bridge, Kuping, Saha and Kuche. The cotton farmers hope that the Akesu cotton enterprises can fully pay seed cotton prices according to the local seed cotton purchase price of Bachu, but the Akesu cotton enterprises believe that since December, the West Bridge, Sha Ya and other places have all implemented 9.10 yuan / kg maximum price acquisition, and the 3 class seed cotton purchase price of 40% of the clothing is generally 9.0-9.05 yuan / kg, the price is too high for cotton enterprises to accept. Xinjiang: cotton enterprises are short of funds and cotton seed prices are rising weak. According to some cotton enterprises around Akesu, Bachu, Jiashi and Kashi cotton areas are currently in the market.

In December 12th, the purchase price of 4 grade seed cotton was 40% yuan in the south of Xinjiang and 13% yuan per kilogram of seed cotton. The daily purchasing amount of cotton enterprises generally dropped to 30-50 tons. The price of cottonseed to factory in Akesu area was 2.06-2.08 yuan / kg, and the price was raised at 2.01-2.02 yuan / kg. Because the quality of cotton seeds after processing was reduced, the proportion of red seeds and black seeds increased, and oil plants generally had to look at the price after goods first.

India: the new cotton market has been accelerated in recent years, and the total volume is still reduced by 12.4%. In the week ending December 9th, the new cotton market in India increased to 187 thousand tons, an increase of 19.4% over the same period last year, mainly due to the doubling of the number of listed shares in Andhra Pradesh.

Nevertheless, the total number of new cotton listed in India this year is still only 867 thousand tons, down 12.4% from the same period last year.

In addition to Andhra Pradesh, the listing of other cotton producing areas is very slow, which has much to do with the postponing of the wind and rain this year.

At present, the US Department of agriculture predicts that India's cotton output will be 5 million 552 thousand tons this year, down 7.3% from the same period last year.

India Cotton Advisory Committee's forecast is more optimistic, the cotton production this year is 5 million 678 thousand tons.

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< p > < strong > [operation suggestion] < /strong > /p >

< p > strategy, light warehouse holding more than 05, up and down to 19065 yuan / ton below.

Observation of 19125 yuan / ton, do not break, do not break down, and then rebounded to reduce part of the warehouse.

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