Weak Cotton Market Fundamentals Unchanged

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　　 I market Market description

On November 13, Zheng Mian Futures opened higher and moved lower. The main 1305 contract closed 20 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day to 19095 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 26894, and the position volume decreased by 1262 to 181018. From the ranking of Zheng Mian's top 20 main positions, the total number of long positions decreased by 65 to 56160, the total number of short positions increased by 132 to 64319, and the net short positions of main positions were 8159. Yesterday, there were 733 cotton warehouse receipts from Zhengshang Exchange, 17 less than the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 6.

The US cotton market slightly adjusted yesterday, with the main contract 03 closing down 0.59 cents/pound and closing at 70.61 cents/pound. In terms of spot goods, China's cotton price index rose 8 yuan/ton to 18768 yuan/ton on November 13 compared with the previous trading day. The FCindexM price of imported cotton increased by 0.43 to 83.77 cents/pound compared with the previous trading day. The import cost was 14458 yuan/ton based on sliding standard tax. The sliding standard tax of imported cotton was 4310 yuan/ton lower than that of domestic cotton.

In the downstream market, in terms of the downstream yarn price on November 13, the price of KC32S was 25716 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the price of JC40S was 30770 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day.

Cotton substitutes, the price of polyester staple fiber fell 10 yuan/ton to 10590 yuan/ton on November 13 compared with the previous trading day; The price of viscose staple fiber rose 20 yuan/ton to 14340 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day.

Related information:

This Canton Fair spin clothing Transactions fell by 15.5%.

On November 13, 133870 tons were planned to be purchased and stored, and 58770 tons were actually sold, accounting for 44% of the total. Among them, the mainland planned to purchase and store 104870 tons, and the actual transaction was 29970 tons, accounting for 29% of the transaction. The Xinjiang planned to purchase and store 29000 tons, and the actual transaction was 28800 tons, accounting for 99% of the transaction. As of today, 2483840 tons of cotton has been temporarily collected and stored in 2012, 1608920 tons in Xinjiang and 746200 tons in the mainland.

The cotton enterprise survey in October showed that the commercial inventory of cotton was 850000 tons, a sharp decrease from 1.47 million tons last month.

Overview: Zheng Mian's main 1305 contract opened high and closed low on Tuesday. The futures price closed below the 5-day moving average, and the trend was still weak. From the perspective of position, the main short position increase is more positive than the long position increase.

From the perspective of cotton market fundamentals, the purchase and storage of cotton support the gradual rise of cotton prices. It is rumored that the country will purchase Grade 5 lint in the later period, but the policy still needs to be clear. The price of gauze is mainly stable. In the case of weak demand for terminal textile and clothing, the shipment is still weak. At present, high-grade cotton in the market is tightening, and with the support of storage and purchase, Zheng cotton has limited falling space in the short term, but it is not easy for Zheng cotton to rise under the weak terminal demand. Therefore, Zheng Mian will continue the weak shock trend. Macroscopically, Germany's ZEW economic climate judgment index in November was - 15.7, significantly lower than the expected negative 9.8, indicating that the spread of the European debt crisis has had a great impact on the economy of core member countries. In addition, the fear of the US fiscal cliff continues to envelop the market, and US stocks and crude oil fell. The US cotton market closed down in a narrow range yesterday.

On the whole, the external macro atmosphere is cautious and empty, the cotton fundamentals remain weak, and Zheng Mian will remain weak. In terms of operation, we suggest to buy 1 and sell 5 intertemporal arbitrage operations to continue holding. Unilaterally, the main 1305 contract in the early stage of 19200-19250 was entered into the market, and the stop loss was 19270.

2、 Industry News

"A large number of Grade IV seed cotton in South Xinjiang are on the market, and the price of cottonseed continues to decline"

According to the survey, the grade of seed cotton purchased by cotton regions in southern Xinjiang has declined significantly since November. Grade IV and Grade V seed cotton has gradually come into the market in large quantities. Frost yellow cotton, autumn peach cotton and peel peach cotton have begun to affect the grade of seed cotton and lint cotton, and seed cotton with a horse value of C1 has also increased rapidly. On December 12, the purchase price of Grade IV seed cotton of some ginning plants in Akesu region dropped to 8.50-8.60 yuan/kg, while the purchase price of Grade III seed cotton of 40% clothing share stabilized at 9.0-9.05 yuan/kg. As the sales volume of high-grade seed cotton is getting less and less, the seed cotton with heavy frost yellow cotton and low horse value will not be collected. Recently, the average daily purchase volume of cotton processing enterprises has declined significantly. Some cotton enterprises in Aksusi Bridge, Keping, Kuche and other places plan to stop collecting before the end of November, and processing will also end before the end of November. Due to the sharp decline in the prices of US soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal and other products in the international market last weekend, the contract limit of soybean meal in the domestic Dalian futures market fell on the 12th, and the soybean oil volume declined significantly, which caused the purchase price of cottonseed to fluctuate significantly downward, and some oil factories made panicky offers.

On November 9 and 10, the purchase price of cotton seeds around Aksu was 1.97-1.98 yuan/kg, and the purchase price of ginning plants far away was 1.93-1.94 yuan/kg. On November 12, the delivery price of some ginning plants had dropped to about 1.90 yuan/kg. Because the prices of soybean oil and soybean meal in the international market were very unstable, the domestic oil refineries and Cotton processing The enterprise felt at a loss, and losses occurred one after another.