The RMB Exchange Rate Soared And Costs Rose. Foreign Trade Enterprises Were Caught Unprepared.

The RMB exchange rate, which has been devalued for more than 5 months, has suddenly soared after the National Day holiday and has hit a new high since the reform.

On the 1 day, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar hit 6.2372 for the first time, hitting a new high in nearly 19 years.

In a few short weeks, the RMB has shifted rapidly from the sustained depreciation to the US dollar, and the market has been heated up by the accelerated appreciation.

Against the backdrop of continued appreciation of the renminbi,

Volatility has increased the risk of exchange between individuals and enterprises. Many foreign trade enterprises in Zhongshan have said that this has increased the risk of foreign trade and is being affected by foreign trade, especially in textile and clothing, agricultural products processing and other industries.

RMB soaring

From September, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar began to continue to strengthen and reestablish its 6.30 integer pass. After the National Day golden week, the RMB continued to show an accelerated appreciation trend. In mid October, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar exceeded RMB 6.28, which broke the key point for the first time in nearly 19 years.

On the 1 day after several consecutive trading days, the spot exchange rate against the US dollar hit a record high of 6.2372, but the rally eased somewhat.

Multiple factors stimulate the influx of hot money

The market also gave various explanations for the sudden appreciation of RMB.

However, the industry generally believes that the sudden sharp appreciation of the renminbi in the short term is mainly due to the new round of the US.

Starting, the US dollar index continued to decline, resulting in a generally passive appreciation of non US currencies.

There is also a view that the rise of the renminbi is driven by the influx of hot money.

Jiang Lin, director of the Department of Finance and taxation of South of the Five Ridges College of Zhongshan University, believes that a large amount of money from Europe and America's loose monetary policy has been pouring into Hongkong through the mainland and continues to pour in.

For this round of hot money offensive, China foreign exchange trading center, 1, said that the continued implementation of quantitative easing policy in the world's major economies, in general, the pattern of RMB exchange rate continued to rise in recent years has not changed significantly, but in the long run, the RMB appreciation against the US dollar is limited, and the exchange rate should be dominated by a large two-way fluctuation.

Despite the recent sharp rise in the yuan against the US dollar, which has repeatedly touched the price limit, the central bank's central parity has been maintained near 6.30, indicating that the central bank does not want the renminbi to continue to rise sharply against the US dollar.

Many foreign trade enterprises are caught off guard.

The momentum of the RMB exchange rate rebound has been rapid, making many individuals and foreign trade enterprises unprepared.

Zhongshan Customs said that the appreciation of the renminbi would have a greater impact on the export oriented industries with high foreign currency assets.

Agricultural products processing and other industries, with low added value and profit margins, are most vulnerable to the appreciation of the renminbi.

Take the textile industry as the example.

It is understood that the RMB profit per appreciation of 1%, the textile industry sales profit fell by 2%-6%.

After the appreciation of the renminbi, the cost of the enterprise is raised, and the profit is reduced or lost, which has a great impact on exports.

In this regard, many garment enterprises have indicated that the appreciation of the renminbi has great impact on enterprises.

"A change in exchange rate has a great impact on the profits of enterprises.

In the past, exports generally had a profit of 10%, "said Zhang Xiang, general manager of Zhongshan courier Garments Co. Ltd." the garments exported to the United States are basically settled in US dollars. "The exchange rate of the people has increased again and again, resulting in a continuous decline in our profit margins."

He said that the list of exports is usually long, and if exported at the end of the year, there will be a loss in the garments exported now. "If the RMB is settled, it will be better."

Whether orders can pick up is still uncertain.

For foreign trade enterprises, the continued depreciation of the renminbi can stimulate more export orders, which is particularly important in the first three quarters of this year when foreign trade continued to slump. Recently, with the rise of foreign trade orders, the appreciation of the renminbi has risen to a certain extent, making it possible for foreign trade orders to continue to pick up in the future.

"We have been used to working in a stable exchange rate or a unilateral market environment for many years."

Shi Jie Jun, general manager of Zhongshan Huan Wei industry, said that in April, the two-way fluctuation of RMB against the US dollar and the expansion of its scope had puzzled the enterprises in pricing and avoiding risks in a certain period.

He said that the appreciation of the renminbi at this stage is related to the two-way fluctuation of exchange rate, which makes it even more difficult to judge the trend of the future market, which is a new challenge for many export enterprises.

The person in charge of the ocean Motor said,

It can only be a factor affecting the decision of enterprises. "Through hedging and other means, we can effectively hedge risks."

Yang Kaiqing, brand director of evergreen new oasis, also said that the brand enterprises have certain advantages in the quotation. The appreciation of the renminbi will have a smaller impact on the enterprises. "However, foreign trade settlement is still carried out in US dollars, which will have a certain impact on exports."