November 2, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[MEIKO futures] five ministries clearly continue to quota management

Overnight, the technology index showed oversold after the ICE futures continued to fall, and the correction increased after the opening of the contract in December. But the United States released positive employment data to promote the strong US dollar to bring pressure to the market. Cotton prices intensified in the late stage, and the contract finally rose 14 points in December.

At present, there is not much news in the market. The US cotton export Weekly has been delayed for a day due to Hurricane Sandy's attack on the United States.

On the whole, market sentiment is slant and cotton prices will continue to be vulnerable.

News, recently, Zhejiang Province

The poor operation of enterprises, the limited production and production enterprises gradually increased, the rate of starting more than 50-80%, the order decreased by 50% compared with previous years, some textile enterprises believe that during the Spring Festival or will appear a wave of spring.

Stocking quotes, but the maintenance time is relatively short, the overall environment will not be any substantial improvement in the short term.

On the international market, on the 1 day, the price of China's main cotton imports and exports increased, including West African cotton and Brazil cotton, which rose 0.5 cents and 1 cents respectively. While cotton, cotton and cotton in Central Asia dropped by 0.5-1 cents, India cotton prices remained stable.

Judging from the market situation, the turnover of the Canton Fair as a market vane has fallen sharply as a microcosm of the slump in demand, and the continuous listing of new cotton in the northern hemisphere has made the supply of resources more abundant.

However, in view of the fact that domestic and foreign cotton prices are difficult to continue to expand, China's purchase and storage and textile factories' support for low price cotton will provide support for the market.

In the domestic market, domestic cotton spot prices continued to operate smoothly yesterday.

China's five ministries and commissions have pointed out that it is not appropriate to cancel the import tariff quota management of cotton at present, but it will be further improved and timely issued. The current cotton price level is not equal to the price of domestic Xinjiang cotton in accordance with the 40% full tariff import.

Dynamic, in November 1st, the State Cotton temporary storage and storage of 67110 tons, as of that date, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage pactions totaled 1854730 tons, of which 517810 tons in the mainland, and 1336920 tons in Xinjiang.

Spot quotation, November 1st, the US C/A cotton 87.10 (cents / pound), discount general trade port delivery price 14798 yuan / ton (according to sliding tax calculation); Australia cotton 92.60, discount general trade port delivery price 15487 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 88.60, fold the renminbi trade port delivery price 14982 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 84.10, discount general trade port delivery price 14440 yuan / ton; India cotton 83.10, discount general trade port delivery price 14324 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index is 19648 yuan / ton; the B index is 18794 yuan.

Market analysis, textile enterprises stop production increased, orders significantly lower than in previous years, the overall industry atmosphere is difficult to improve.

Five ministries and commissions pointed out that quota management will still be carried out this year. At present, there is almost no profit under the 40% tariff import. Before that, the external market is hard to get a boost, and will continue to explore the bottom. Zheng cotton is firmly in the 19000-20000 range when it is picked up and stored. Yesterday, it failed to test the pressure on the axial direction, and there were signs of weakness in the short term.

On the operation, 05 of the front empty seats are backed by 19500; 01 of those who left the field yesterday, 01 were concerned about 19500 support, and they could also consider buying 1 arbitrage 5 arbitrage.

[one German futures] market atmosphere is much more positive Zheng cotton more shocks

CF1305 opened low on Thursday, and CF1305 closed more than 4.7 hands at a close.

CF1305 closed at 19370 yuan / ton, up 45 yuan / ton, reduced 108 positions; in November 1st, China imported cotton (FC Index M) 84.02 cents / pound, fell 0.74 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13524 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14488 yuan / ton.

According to New York's November 1st news, the ICE cotton futures rose on Thursday, after cotton prices fell to a month low due to the increase in registered inventories, and the technology market entered the oversold area, followed by a revised upward trend.

The ICE12 contract settlement price rose 0.14 cents, or 0.2%, at 70.21 cents a pound.

In November 1st, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 10280 tons, a decrease of 220 tons compared with the previous trading day, a reduction of 1400 tons of orders, and a total purchase of 61280 tons.

On the 1 day, the opening of each contract was mixed.

The domestic economy is improving. Although the European and American economies are still weak and export orders are not good, domestic demand is improving.

Recently, textile demand has been improved. The focus of the market is still on the stock market. There is less cotton in the market, and cotton market is showing signs of improvement.

On Thursday, Zheng cotton went up and down, and there was no significant change in fundamentals. The 05 contract broke away from the low position and began to rebound. The first target was 19500.

Today's operation suggests that the CF1305 price reference interval is 19300-19500.

[Wanda futures] U.S. cotton stand 70 cents above the rebound

Although US cotton registered inventories continue to increase, hurricane Sandy may damage some cotton fields, while ICE cotton hit 70 cents / pounds strong support position, and technical bottom up buying increased, which constituted support for cotton prices. Overnight ICE cotton fell steadily, and in December the contract closed up 0.14 cents to 70.21 cents / pound.

Although the pressure brought by the new cotton market and the sluggish consumption will make cotton prices remain weak, trade buying from China has increased. Meanwhile, market rumors that India may buy and store new cotton will support the US cotton. Therefore, it is prudent to look down and pay close attention to the strong support of 70 cents / pound.

On Thursday, ICE cotton fell and rebounded for 70 cents per pound, but the main contract in December was far from the suppression of the short-term average. The KD and MACD indexes continued to fall short, and the MACD index green column began to grow. The downtrend will continue, such as the December contract 70 cents / pound strong support position, and the downward heading will reach 67 cents / pound.

Zheng cotton continues to shrink and collate, the new cotton high proportion collection and storage causes the domestic circulation resources to reduce, the May contract may face the awkward situation of the non registered warehouse receipt, this becomes the cotton price sole support.

However, the international cotton prices continued to fall, and the difference between inside and outside cotton prices was widening again. China's orders continued to drain, and imported cotton and cotton yarn occupied the domestic cotton market. Weak consumption continued to drag cotton prices.

meanwhile

After the end of the stock market, under the circumstances, Zheng cotton fell into a stalemate pattern, but it will continue to be weak in the long run. It will continue to increase its 1305 contracts and meet short-term targets to 19200 yuan / ton line.