Textile And Garment Industry: The Trend Of Consumer Warming Is Gradually Established.

　　 Spin clothing The plate has been greatly adjusted with the market, and the safety margin of the industry has been further strengthened. We believe that if the trend of the terminal consumer warming is established in the future, the valuation of the industry may be restored.

Main review:

1, industry tracking: in September, HSBC PMI initial value rose slightly from 47.8 last month to 47.8, the lowest level in 41 months, and economic growth has stabilized. The manufacturing output index reached a minimum of 47 in 10 months, and sub sectors showed that the slowdown in manufacturing is stabilizing.

2. Company tracking: Canal Road Follow up: it is expected that the three quarterly report will continue to maintain a high growth trend, with revenue growth of about 30% and net profit growth of around 50%. Men's clothing 2013 spring and summer orders will follow: Nine herd Wang: 2013 spring and summer orders will be over, the number of orders is expected to increase. It is expected that the company's current growth rate will be around 5%, with a sales rate of about 60%. Seven wolves: the growth rate of orders is expected to be around 13%. The company's revenue is about 70 million in July, and its net profit is about 20 million. This year, department store's overall terminal sales are under a slight pressure. In the light of the steady and steady consideration, the company has cut down the number of shops opened in 80 years, from 60 to Rhine.

Last week, the trend of textile and garment sector performance was weaker than that of the market. Textile and apparel index fell 6.71% last week, down 1.2% from the Shen Wan A index. Among them, the textile manufacturing index fell 6.47%, relative to Shen Wan A index fell 0.96%; clothing home textile index fell 6.91%, relative to Shen Wan A index fell 1.4%.

Industry basic data: September PMI The initial value rose slightly from 47.6 last month to 47.8, while the manufacturing output index hit a minimum of 10 months, only 47. The new orders index rose from 46.1 in August to 47.6 in September. The new export orders index rose from 45.5 to 46.3. Procurement inventory accelerated shrinkage, finished product inventory continued to increase. Last week, prices of cotton and chemical fiber mixed with each other: domestic 328 spot spot last week went flat to collect yuan / ton, zhengcotton main contract increased 1% yuan yuan / ton. Polyester staple fiber rose 3.2% to 11250 yuan / ton, viscose staple fiber fell 1.9% to 15200 yuan / ton, nylon yarn rose 2.9% to 21100 yuan / ton.

Our view: in September, the initial value of PMI rebounded slightly, and economic growth stabilized. The 2013 spring and summer ordering of men's clothing will basically end and the growth rate has slowed down. Men's clothing 2013 spring and summer orders will be basically over. The number of reported birds is expected to increase by 15% over the same period last year, and the number of seven wolves increased by 13% over the same period. Although the growth rate of retail sales in garment industry has picked up in August, the order of franchisees is generally more cautious because of the uncertainty of economic growth and consumer demand warming trend. Most men's clothing companies will increase their orders year-on-year significantly slower than market expectations. Recommended men's white horse, seven wolves, nine Mu Wang, good news birds, and potential growth stocks Shanghai Jahwa and long Zi shares. Pay close attention to the 2013 spring and summer ordering of garment home textile industry.