Prediction And Trading Strategy Of Cotton Market

Market Review

The main contract 1301, opening 19550 yuan / ton, closing 19810 yuan / ton, the highest 19985 yuan / ton, the lowest 19515 yuan / ton, up +255 points, or +1.3%, 476044 hands volume, a slight increase compared with yesterday, the +25414 margin, the volume rose, and fell back.

Zheng cotton 1305 contract closed 19850 yuan / ton, up 105 points, -364 margin.

Two. Fundamentals

1. Zhang Xianbin, director of the economic and Trade Department of the national development and Reform Commission (NDRC): the issue of quotas will not be studied this year.

Zhang Xianbin, director of the economic and Trade Bureau of the national development and Reform Commission, talked about the feelings of the 2011 year and some ideas of the new year from the three aspects of the 2012 national cotton situation analysis conference held by the Chinese Cotton Association (19760, -5.00, -0.03%).

First, the problem of poor cotton prices inside and outside.

The two is about the policy of temporary purchase and storage, but the best policy is conducive to the development of the whole industry. The quota problem is not studied this year.

Three is about the issue of cotton reserves at present.

It was suspended in September 29th and seriously dealt with cotton spinning.

2.2012, September 29th, the end of the national cotton reserves and the sale of cotton textile enterprises.

3. Interim Provisions on the issue of "turning cotton" in the national cotton reserve put into operation.

In September 17, 2012, the economic and Trade Bureau of the NDRC, the China Fiber Inspection Bureau, the China Cotton Association, the China Textile Industry Association, the China reserve cotton Management Corporation, and the whole country

The trading market jointly issued the "Interim Provisions on the issue of" turning cotton "in the national cotton reserves to prevent the release of the national cotton reserves, which stipulates the whole process of monitoring the purchase qualifications, delivery, pportation and use of the cotton reserves.

4. throw storage: in September 18th, the turnover was 22015.46 tons, with a turnover rate of 48.9%.

5. purchase and storage: in September 18th, the actual turnover was 9240 tons, with a turnover ratio of 18.5%.

6. spot 328 level, 18639 yuan / ton, the fundamentals have not improved significantly.

7. cotton business acquisition began, seed cotton price of 4.3 yuan / kg.

8. Textile: pure cotton 32S:25250 yuan / ton, combed 40S:30610 yuan / ton.

Three. Technical analysis and paction analysis

Due to the end of September 29th, Zhang Xianbin, director of the economic and Trade Department of the national development and Reform Commission, said, "quota issues will not be studied this year." Zheng cotton's volume has broken through, and it has been washed down. The volume has been enlarged, and the volume has increased by +25414.

Four, market prediction and trading strategy

Shortly after the implementation of the plan, Zhang Xianbin, director of the economic and Trade Department of the national development and Reform Commission, said that "the quota issue will not be studied this year". Cotton seems to be a great advantage. But calm analysis, this year's international situation and the basic situation of the lower reaches suggest that we should carefully operate and pay attention to the support of 19300 yuan / ton. The pressure level above concerns 20000 yuan / ton and 20400 yuan / ton.