September 13, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20499 yuan / ton; 229 level 19628 yuan / ton; 328 level 18752 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17914 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 10390 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15780 yuan / ton; C32S price 25630 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: 12, the spot price of domestic cotton tends to be stable, and the state purchase and storage started on schedule 10. At present, the cotton seeds purchased by cotton purchasing enterprises are mostly early flowers, and the grade is low. The price is 4.0-4.1, which is mainly four, and the purchase is very cautious.

3. cotton imports: in September 11th, the price of imported cotton fell generally, of which India cotton fell 1.25 cents, while other varieties fell by about 0.5 cents.

Judging from the market situation, yarn prices in some parts of the region are rising quietly, but the pattern of overall consumption is hard to bring support to the market. Even if the price of foreign cotton has dropped, the quota of textile mills will not restrict the quantity of foreign cotton purchase, and the national cotton store will continue to be a major market paction.

4. cotton throwing and storage: in September 12th, the actual turnover of cotton reserves was 12953.08 tons, with a turnover rate of 28.75%.

On the same day, the average level of pactions was 3.17, the weighted average paction price was 18496 yuan / ton, and the 328 class cotton price was 18594 yuan / ton (weight), which was 52 yuan / ton lower than that in September 11th, which was 161 yuan / ton lower than that of the national cotton price index B (CNCotton B) 18755 yuan / ton.

5.USDA9 month report: global inventory has increased sharply, and China's consumption has dropped by 220 thousand tons.

6.ICE cotton: in September 12th, USDA raised 400 thousand tons of the end of this year's inventory in the supply and demand report, while China's consumption fell by 220 thousand tons, indicating that the worries about China's market demand have been increasing. Due to its influence, the ICE futures market has sprung up a lot of sales. After December, the contract fell below the average of 20 days, and the 60 day average line was dropped. The lowest price hit the lowest level in a month.

Summary:

At the same time, the price is different.

The dumping and storage actually reflect the cotton prices in circulation in Chinese society.

After the purchase and storage starts, the cotton resources will flow to the national reserve.

But before the global demand for cotton has obviously improved, the three tier structure of cotton prices will not change. The circulation price of cotton in China will close to 20400 of the purchase and storage price. However, closing up is far from being able to achieve.

Continue to operate on the basis of the 20 day average line.

Yesterday, USDA substantially increased the global end inventory of the new year, which had a negative impact on Zheng cotton.

However, under the support of China's policy, Zheng cotton must pay attention to the 40 and 60 day moving average.

[MEIKO futures]USDA production and sales data is bad.

Overnight, in September 12th, USDA raised 400 thousand tons of inventory at the end of this year in supply and demand report, while China's consumption fell by 220 thousand tons, indicating that China's market demand has been increasing. By its influence, ICE futures market has sprung up a lot of sales. In December, the contract fell below the 20 day average line to support the 60 day moving average, and the lowest price hit the lowest level in a month.

News last night, the US Department of Agriculture announced the latest forecast of global cotton production and storage in 2012/13. The global stock market has been substantially adjusted for the initial inventory in China, India and Australia, resulting in a sharp increase of 453 thousand tons in the beginning of the world, and an increase of 403 thousand tons in the end of the year.

China's imports in 2011/12 were much higher than expected, coupled with a decline in consumption, resulting in an increase of 283 thousand tons in the end of last year.

Global 2012/13 end inventory increased to 16 million 661 thousand tons, of which China was 7 million 732 thousand tons.

China's cotton imports and consumption have been cut by 218 thousand tons.

In the international market, in September 12th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton continued to decline, and most varieties fell by about 0.7 cents.

At present, there is not much news in the market, and many confidence has been battered.

At the moment, India and the United States are in good shape and are going to be listed in large quantities. However, foreign cotton is hard to get the favor of textile mills under the pressure of national cotton storage, resulting in the cold reception of cotton in China.

In addition, the forecast of the USDA production and sales forecast today is expected to further decline.

The domestic market, 12, the domestic cotton spot prices stabilized, and the national purchase and storage started on schedule 10. At present, the cotton seeds purchased by the cotton purchasing enterprises are mostly early flowers, and the grade is low. The price is 4.0-4.1 yuan / Jin, the price is in the range of 4.0-4.1 yuan / Jin, the acquisition is very cautious, the quantity of seed cotton is not large, and the number of lint cotton has been inspected. According to the requirements of the reform plan of cotton quality inspection system, the cotton processing company has processed cotton and carried out the notarization test. As of 11 days, the whole nation has seized 1 thousand and 210 tons of lint in the new year. It is expected that with the enlargement of the number of public inspection, the paction will gradually become active.

State reserves: 1, 12, the Central Cotton store plans to purchase and store 2012 cotton 50000 tons, no deal on that day.

On the 2 and 12 days, the sale of reserve cotton was 12 thousand and 900 tons, and the turnover rate was 28.75%. As of that day, the total turnover of the reserve and storage was 195 thousand and 800 tons, with a turnover rate of 56.48%.

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Spot quotation, September 12th, the US C/A cotton 90.60 (cents / pound), discount general trade port delivery price 15430 yuan / ton (according to sliding tax calculation); Australia cotton 96.10, discount general trade port delivery price 16170 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 91.10, fold the renminbi trade port delivery price 15495 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 88.35, discount general trade port delivery price 15140 yuan / ton; India cotton 86.10, discount general trade port delivery price 14857 yuan / ton.

CNCotton A 19628 yuan / ton; CNCottonB 18755 yuan, up 1 yuan.

Market analysis, overnight USDA reduced China's consumption, and substantially increased the global end of the stock market to bring a sell-off, ICE12 month contract fell 2.14%.

The domestic market has eased the slight tension of high-grade cotton, and the new year's storage has not yet been completed, so the lifting effect is limited, and the price of the stage cotton is showing weakness.

On the operation, Zheng cotton was more cautious, holding down 19480.

[Wanda futures]USDA monthly report to US cotton continued to fall

On Wednesday, USDA announced monthly demand and supply report. Global consumption in 2012/13 is expected to be reduced by 130 thousand tons to 23 million 420 thousand tons as expected, and the final inventory will be increased by 400 thousand tons to 16 million 660 thousand tons of cotton price, which is up 450 thousand tons to 15 million 210 thousand tons at the beginning of the year.

China's consumption has dropped from 220 thousand tons to 8 million 270 thousand tons, and ending stocks have increased by 290 thousand tons to 7 million 730 thousand tons.

Affected by bad reports, ICE cotton fell again sharply, the main contract in December to a minimum of 72.75 cents / pound, ended down 1.6 cents to 73.33 cents / pound.

China's new cotton market, a large number of racket buying, storing and dumping, the market supply increased demand is low, quota shortage, which inhibit China's buying, in the basic situation is weak, ICE cotton will remain weak, pay attention to the strong support position of 70 cents / pound line.

Wednesday ICE cotton mid Yin closed, the main contract in December closed in the short-term average and 75 cents / pound support position, the short-term average has a U-turn downward trend, but the KD and MACD indicators continue to fall short, MACD index green column growth, the market weakened, the downtrend will continue, December contract is expected to challenge the strong support position of 70 cents / pound.

China planned to throw 45052 tons of storage on Wednesday, and the actual paction volume was 12953 tons. The average price was only 18495 yuan / ton. The increasing number of RPG shows that the country's reserve resources have limited attraction to textile enterprises, the market supply is loose and the demand is still low. Some enterprises have begun to use sporadic new cotton, the cost is 19000 yuan / ton, the demand is low, the price of yarn is weak, the price of yarn is weak, and textile enterprises are still buying and selling, which is the main reason for the racket.

And because the qualification of storage has not yet been determined, and new cotton has not yet obtained the public inspection certificate, the purchase and storage continues to zero paction, some enterprises purchase the spot goods at a low price, the supply of the short term market is sufficient, the supporting role of the purchasing and storage market is difficult, cotton prices therefore maintain a weak pattern, short-term cotton prices still have downward pressure, and the 1301 contract will challenge the support level of 19400 yuan / ton, if the support is lost, it will continue to increase the number of empty holdings, and the target will reach 19000 yuan / ton line.

[GF futures] US agriculture report negative or positive reversal

[market performance]

Cotton in the US Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell, as the US Department of agriculture continued to raise global inventories.

Cotton fell to a 1 month low.

December cotton CTZ2 fell 2%, at 73.33 cents per pound, breaking through the recent narrow trading range and falling through the 50 day moving average.

The Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange cotton 1301 contract closed at 19575 yuan / ton, down 15 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

Turnover reduced to 45750 hands, and positions decreased by 332 to 243096.

[spot market]

Cotton spot quotation maintained a slight rebound, and the deal was dull.

The national cotton index is two yuan cotton, 19400 yuan, and the three grade cotton price is 18636 yuan / ton, which is flat with the previous trading day.

[industry news]

The US Department of agriculture has raised its global cotton balance forecast to a record 76 million 500 thousand export package in its monthly crop report, an increase of about 2 million export packages from last month, partly due to reduced consumption and imports in China. China's inventory is adjusted to 7 million 730 thousand tons, and global inventory consumption ratio is as high as 71%.

[operation suggestion]

US agricultural data are bad.

Fall back.

Storage and purchase started a few days, but because of the same time with the storage, and good has been digested ahead of time, cotton is weak, it is recommended that more single pound to leave.

Cotton will reverse or will start. This week, the US QE has a good or bad overall market. It suggests that it should rely on the average distribution line and the central line.