The Diaoyu Islands Incident Did Not Affect The Economic Relations Between Japan And China

Between China and Japan Diaoyu Islands The escalation of disputes, coupled with Japan's unstable political situation and Japan's strategy of following the United States to contain China, is difficult not to have an impact on economic exchanges. In this regard, Rick believes that China's domestic understanding of the role of politics is too exaggerated. In fact, the statements of some Japanese political leaders only represent individuals and certain groups, and more than 90% of the Japanese people do not pay attention to politics. Therefore, the economic exchanges between China and Japan will not be affected.

According to the preliminary trade statistics released by the Ministry of Finance of Japan, the trade balance deficit in July was 517.4 billion yen, the largest deficit since 1979 with comparable data. As one of Japan's largest trading partners, how will Japan's expanding trade deficit affect China and other economies?

Experts interviewed pointed out that, influenced by the chain reaction of the European debt crisis and the continued strength of the yen Trade The deficit is also normal. It is worth noting that the solution of Japan's long-standing problems such as insufficient product innovation capability and slow industrial restructuring needs a process. In addition, the global environment is not optimistic. It is expected that the situation will not improve significantly in the short term, and the future economic recovery will face many challenges.

From here to there, insiders believe that China Japan economic and trade exchanges will also be more or less involved. However, in view of the fact that China's foreign trade is still likely to achieve an 8% growth rate, coupled with Japan's long-term plans for industrial investment and technology research and development, the future development of China Japan trade is still worth looking forward to.

　　 Dragged by European debt crisis

Data shows that Japan's exports in July decreased by 8.1% compared with the same period last year, to only 5.31 trillion yen, which is far worse than the median expected by economists (growth rate decreased by 2.9%). Among them, Japan's exports to the EU shrank by 25.1%, the largest decline since October 2009, and its trade deficit with the region reached a record high.

"Dragged by the continued deterioration of the European debt crisis, the global economic recovery has slowed down, and the demand of countries including China has decreased, which is bound to have a great impact on export-oriented economies such as Japan." Zhao Jinping, vice minister of the Foreign Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out.

Zhao Zhongxiu, Dean of the School of International Business of the University of International Business and Economics, also agrees with the above view. He believed that "the record high trade deficit of Japan is the manifestation of the chain reaction of the European debt crisis."

In particular, Japan's exports to China also fell by 11.9% in July. Among them, the export of heavy machinery engines, including automobile engines, decreased by 45.8%, the export of semiconductor parts decreased by 17.2%, and the export of automobile parts decreased by 14.9%. "In previous years, one or two containers of goods were imported from Japan every month, but only one container was imported in two or three months this year," Mr. Hu, manager of a freight forwarding company in Shenzhen, told reporters.

Mr. Hu believes that on the one hand, the decline of his business stems from the fact that many Japanese enterprises moved to China after the Japanese earthquake; On the other hand, after a number of foreign enterprises went bankrupt in the economic crisis, many Chinese enterprises were transformed and upgraded to produce products that meet domestic demand, which further weakened China's demand for Japan.

"Japan's exports to China are mainly intermediate products, which need to be reprocessed and exported to the United States and other places. However, under the severe situation of China's trade growth, the reduction of demand for Japanese products is also expected," Zhao Zhongxiu said.

In addition, Li Ke, president of the Japan China School of Management, pointed out that the current slow process of economic recovery in the United States has led to the continued weakness of the dollar and the relatively strong yen, which is also quite unfavorable for Japan's exports.

"Japan is still in the process of post disaster reconstruction, and there is still demand for means of production, and imports will pick up significantly in the future. As for exports, due to the global economic downturn, weak demand, it is difficult to improve in the short term." Zhao Jinping believes.

　 Look to China

In addition to focusing on external factors, experts pay more attention to Japan. "The global economic downturn is just the general environment. In recent years, Japan's product innovation ability is insufficient, structural adjustment is slowing down, and the automobile industry, electronic products, etc. are facing competition from the United States and South Korea, Japan The post disaster relief spending also increased Japan's financial pressure, which further limited the space for further growth of the Japanese economy. " Zhao Zhongxiu pointed out that.

Zhao Zhongxiu believed that the record high trade deficit in July could be seen as a signal that Japan failed to keep pace with the world in terms of technological upgrading, structural adjustment, etc., and its ability to resist risks was poor. He expressed concern about Japan's future economic growth prospects.

In this regard, Rick also admitted that in the past two years, the industrial structure of Japan's once strong industries such as electronics, chemicals, automobiles, etc. has not been adjusted in time. He predicted that Japan's trade deficit would continue in the future. Even if the global economy turns better, it will take six months to a year for it to change.

However, Rick also stressed that although Japan's economy is difficult to improve in the short term, from the current measures taken by Japan, the future development is still worth looking forward to. For example, Japan realized at the end of last year that all major companies were actively introducing measures to adjust the industrial structure. In addition, the Japanese government is also accelerating the industrial upgrading, closing some enterprises that do not have a greater competitive advantage, and investing more energy in technology research and development rather than terminal products. The research and development of new generation products such as lithium batteries, solar energy, robots and so on is the focus of its development in the next 5-10 years.

Rick also pointed out that Japan's economy should not be viewed only by trade. Japan's large number of high-quality overseas assets is its strategic advantage. Unlike China's overseas mergers and acquisitions of some resource enterprises, Japan's current overseas mergers and acquisitions are basically in the core sectors of leading industries. Although these benefits are difficult to show in the short term, they are very beneficial to the long-term strategic development of the national economy.

Under the circumstances that the economic situation in Europe and the United States is difficult to improve in the short term and it takes time for domestic industrial adjustment, some Japanese media have pinned their hopes on China. They said that whether Japan's exports can recover, the key is whether exports to China can return to normal. Zhao Jinping is optimistic about this. He believes that it is still possible for China's economy to maintain an 8% growth rate this year. This is undoubtedly good news for Japan, which has 20% of its export share in China.

But some experts expressed concern. Zhao Zhongxiu believed that the political impact on the economy cannot be ignored. The escalating Diaoyu Island dispute between China and Japan, coupled with Japan's unstable political situation and Japan's strategy of following the United States to contain China, is difficult not to have an impact on economic exchanges.

In this regard, Rick believes that China's domestic understanding of the role of politics is too exaggerated. In fact, the statements of some Japanese political leaders only represent individuals and certain groups, and more than 90% of the Japanese people do not pay attention to politics. He believes that on the basis of public support, China Japan economic and trade exchanges have become increasingly close in the past two years, and Japan's position in China has gradually shifted from a production base to a consumer market. As long as both sides maintain a calm and objective attitude, he believes that it will not have a great impact on the economic and trade exchanges between China and Japan.