August 17, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan futures Zheng cotton short line has pressure.

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20294 yuan / ton; 229 level 19436 yuan / ton; 328 level 18524 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17617 yuan / ton. Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9730 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15050 yuan / ton; C32S price 25380 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: with the approaching of the time window for storage and purchase, the policy will become the primary factor affecting cotton prices in the short and medium term.

3. imported cotton: in August 16th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton rose again, of which the US cotton rose 1 cents and the West African cotton rose 0.5 cents. In fact, spot trading is not large, mainly by spot shipment, and the market supply pressure has not been alleviated. At the same time, there are bad news such as precipitation in the main cotton producing areas of the United States. Therefore, the price of foreign cotton is very limited.

4. growth stands: nearly one Zhou Yilai (August 10-16), the domestic real estate cotton area generally appear rainfall, the growth of cotton to varying degrees. Among them, the cotton fields in the the Yellow River River Basin are wet, and there are accumulated water in some plots and cotton plants lodging. The cotton seed yield per plant will be reduced by 5-10%, so the cotton farmers' purchase price for seed cotton is expected to increase by more than 5 yuan / Jin. After the typhoon and rainstorm, although the cotton fields in the Yangtze River Basin are seriously damaged, the time for sitting on the peach and the boll opening has been delayed. The cotton growth in general is generally at present. The Xinjiang area is still dominated by high temperature weather, with moderate rainfall and favorable growth for new cotton. At the moment, dry cotton plants such as Hami and Turpan have been released, and some cotton enterprises have already started buying.

5.ICE cotton: in August 16th, the strong grain market did not bring upward momentum to the ICE cotton. Profit taking resulted in a fall in cotton prices. In addition, as investors' enthusiasm for the cotton market has diminished, the market is hard to find more sales intervention, which limits the decline in cotton prices.

Summary:

The two major factors that affect domestic cotton prices are demand and policy. There is no substantial change in demand. With the approaching of the new cotton year, the policy will become the primary factor affecting cotton prices in the short and medium term. Cotton enterprises expect cotton prices to come closer to the purchase and storage price. Under this expectation, there is limited space under zhengmian. And Zheng cotton and Mei cotton are different in policy, or lead to inconsistent trend in the near future. I insist that the central line of Zheng cotton fall back gradually into many single ideas unchanged. The short term pays close attention to the pressure of 19700 yuan / ton at the top of the platform.

[Wanda futures] exports shrink to the United States cotton down

As of 9 days, a week cotton textile signed 17645 tons of cotton exports, only 27873 tons of shipment, China signed only 2449 tons of imports, indicating that the overall demand is weak. The overall market is still in a pattern of excess supply and shrinking demand. Investors' enthusiasm for cotton is far less than that of soybeans and other agricultural products. This resulted in a slight decline in cotton ICE overnight, and the contract fell 0.52 to 72.59 cents / pounds in December. Although China may issue an additional 400 thousand tons of import quotas, compared to the 800 thousand tons of inventory in China's bonded warehouse, the ICE phase cotton will continue to be 70-75 cents / pound.

Thursday ICE cotton fell slightly, the main 12 contract closed below the short-term average, although the trend of the medium and low term average line has a continuous upward trend, but the KD and MACD indicators continue to fall short, the MACD index red column shortens to the 0 axis of the vulnerable areas, cotton prices are still in a weak position, ICE cotton will maintain a low level of shock pattern, continue to pay attention to 70-75 cents / pound of the horizontal area.

After the disappearance of the dumping rumor, there is a tight trend in the domestic stock market. The new year government will open and limit the purchase price at the price of 20400 yuan / ton, which leads to the slow rise of Zheng cotton. But the downstream consumer market is still weak. Spin Enterprises continue to import large quantities of cotton. At the same time, it is rumoured that the Chinese government will issue 400 thousand tons of processing trade quotas recently. Textile enterprises have limited bearing capacity for domestic high priced cotton, and imported cotton will continue to impact domestic cotton prices. On the other hand, domestic and foreign cotton prices remain high, the euro zone economic recession continues to drag the global economy, China's textile and clothing costs are high, export orders shrink, demand and popularity is difficult to recover. In this case, the lack of funds and popular support, Zheng cotton is difficult to get rid of the 18600-19700 yuan / ton low level area, although Zheng cotton continues to rebound pattern, but not coke view, for the current market is not suitable to catch up and fall, such as the January contract 19400 yuan / ton lose more single stop loss and increase the empty list, otherwise cautious holds a small number of single, target to 19700 yuan / ton line. {page_break}

[MEIKO futures] anticipating the smooth transition of the new and old year cotton range shocks

Overnight, in August 16th, the strong grain market failed to bring upward momentum to ICE cotton, which resulted in a fall in cotton prices. In addition, as investors' enthusiasm for the cotton market has diminished, the market is hard to find more sales intervention, which limits the decline in cotton prices. Judging from the current situation, investors are wait-and-see mood is strong, the recent cotton prices will take the trend of oscillation.

On the news side, USDA announced the (2012.8.3-9) US cotton export report. In the week of 2012/13, the net volume of US cotton exports was 17 thousand and 600 tons, and the US land cotton export volume was 27 thousand and 900 tons. In the week of 2012/13, the net contract volume of the export of Pima cotton was 3 thousand and 600 tons. The export volume of Pima cotton is 2 thousand and 700 tons.

In the international market, in August 16th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton rose again, with the US cotton rising 1 cents and West Africa cotton up 0.5 cents. In fact, spot trading is not large, mainly by spot shipment, and the market supply pressure has not been alleviated. At the same time, there are bad news such as precipitation in the main cotton producing areas of the United States. Therefore, the price of foreign cotton is very limited.

On the domestic market, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Wednesday (August 15th) that China's economy is still facing downward pressure, and that the current economic difficulties may continue for some time. We understand that it is less likely that the state will adopt a positive policy. Industry perspective 16, domestic cotton spot prices are still relatively stable, the current textile industry is quite grim, orders continue to shrink, inventory levels remain high, the textile industry is in a state of overall contraction, cotton prices later trend needs to see policy adjustment efforts, but in September the storage is coming, 20400 of the purchase price is still good for cotton prices.

Spot quotation, in August 16th, the US C/A cotton quotation is 89.10 (cents / pound), the discount general trade port delivery price is 15254 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax), the Australian cotton quotation is 94.10, the general trade port price is 15917 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton quotation is 91.60, the general trade port delivery price is 15581 yuan / ton, the West African cotton price is 87.60, the general trade port delivery price is 15063 yuan / ton, the India cotton quotation is 85.10, the general trade port delivery price is 14750 yuan / ton. The national cotton price A index is 19447 yuan / ton; the B index is 18532 yuan, rising by 1 yuan.

Market analysis, industry policy orientation is still uncertain, has been affecting. Cotton price With the approaching of storage time, the price of cotton will not drop, but it will be limited due to the pressure of spot pressure. The new flower purchase and storage season is coming, and the price of 20400 is good for new flowers, but it has not yet been shown due to the fact that the old and new year alternation has not officially started yet. Both inside and outside the plate showed a concussion near the 60 day moving average.