Three Factors Drag Down The General Decline Of Foreign Trade In Asia

Similar to the situation in China, Asian countries and regions such as Japan, Korea and Taiwan are also experiencing the downturn of trade.

Over reliance

Under the background of unsustainable export oriented economic growth mode, Asian economies have been upgrading industries through upgrading industries and expanding diversified markets.

At the same time, the demand for strengthening regional cooperation is more urgent than ever.

While China's foreign trade has been "overwintering" in the dog days, other Asian countries and regions have also failed to enjoy their trade.

South Korea's exports in July showed the biggest drop since the year. The second quarter of the Japanese economy grew much lower than expected, and the import and export volume declined in June. The total export value of Taiwan in July has been declining for 5 consecutive months.

Faced with the general decline in Asian trade, experts interviewed said that the slowdown in China's growth and the continuing economic downturn in Europe and the United States had an impact on major Asian economies. The economic crisis also revealed the structural problems of the long-term dependence on external demand of these economies.

Although these countries and regions are promoting trade through industrial upgrading and expanding emerging markets, the "cold from heating up" needs a long-term adjustment process.

Three factors dragging

Public opinion is widely believed that most of the downturn in Asia's foreign trade comes from the weakening demand caused by the European debt crisis and the slow recovery of the US economy.

This judgement has been corroborated by the economic data from various countries in recent days.

Statistics show that China's exports in July increased by only 1% compared with the same period last year, while imports increased by 4.7% over the same period last year, and exports to EU countries dropped by 3.6%.

The second quarter of the Japanese economy increased by 1.4% over the same period last year, a sharp slowdown compared with the 5.5% increase in the first quarter. Meanwhile, Japan's imports and exports fell in the second quarter, and exports to Europe dropped by more than 25%.

"Since 2008,

Has been struggling.

Although the euro zone sovereign debt crisis has affected Europe's economic growth for more than a year, this effect has only recently begun to lead to a decline in demand for Asian exports. "

If there is an analysis, it is pointed out.

"Japan has set the target of economic growth to 2.5%~3%, originally intended to make good use of the disaster reconstruction, the recovery of the US economy and the European debt crisis, but the actual situation is very bad, resulting in the current economic development rate far lower than expected. At the moment, the situation in the eurozone is still not clear. For the export oriented economies such as China, Japan and South Korea, the foreign trade situation is very grim."

Li Ke, President of Japan China Institute of management, told reporters.

Hu Shiqing, deputy director of the Taiwan Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also said that Taiwan's exports mainly depend on the European and American markets in recent years. However, the European debt crisis has not improved, and the US economic recovery has slowed down, which has a great impact on Taiwan.

In addition, experts interviewed believe that the slow down of China's economy will not be overlooked in other Asian countries and regions.

"In the past 10 years, Asia's share of exports to Europe and the United States has decreased significantly, and the proportion of intra regional trade has increased significantly, forming a China Centered Asian supply chain.

China's economic growth has declined, and has spread to more Asian developing countries, forming a pattern of simultaneous slowdown in the global demand side (Europe and America) and the global supply side (Asia).

Countries are adjusting policies one after another

"These data in Asia show that the inevitable adjustment has begun, and we expect the situation to deteriorate, but it will not face the collapse of 2008," he said.

Bei Zhemin, managing director of Hongkong consulting company Silk Road consultant, told the relevant media.

In response, experts interviewed by our reporter agreed.

"Although the impact of the European and American markets on Taiwan is significant, it is the key to the decline of its own industrial competitiveness and the unfinished adjustment and pformation."

Hu Shiqing said that in addition to hopes for the external market, Taiwan itself is also carrying out a series of adjustments, such as adjusting the economic structure and developing new industries, and putting forward the slogan of "manufacturing service". In fact, it is upgrading its own industrial chain, breaking the boundaries between manufacturing and service industries, and relying on the situation of over reliance on external demand in the past, and gradually developing it into both internal and external needs.

"Taiwan is also actively exploring new markets, such as India and Latin America, which are the targets of its development. The importance of cross-strait trade is also one of Taiwan's important adjustments."

Hu Shiqing said.

It is understood that the signing of the "customs cooperation agreement between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits" in August 9th is believed to be positive for cross-strait trade liberalization and facilitation, laying a good foundation for future trade agreements between the two sides.

Compared with Taiwan, Japan pays more attention to enhancing its competitiveness through overseas markets.

"As the largest creditor country in the world, coupled with good overseas assets, Japan relies on large overseas enterprises to encourage SMEs to go out. On the other hand, it is also taking advantage of the international market cost advantage to upgrade the industrial chain, while solving the problem of low domestic cost, including increasing overseas procurement and pferring some low capacity industries."

Li Ke said.

Li Ke believes that after adjustment,

Although it will not usher in a big growth, it will still maintain a steady recovery trend in the short term.

Hu Qingshi also believes that Taiwan's economy is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter as the US economy improves and the base of the fourth quarter of last year is low.

It is meaningless to stare at the data blindly. Structural adjustment and economic recovery are a process.

Li Ke believes that economic growth is fast and slow, which is consistent with the law. The Chinese government and enterprises have always stressed the need to reflect on the situation of excessive industry in some areas.

In addition, Li Ke also believes that although the economic slowdown will bring the industry's survival of the fittest, but it is also a favorable opportunity for structural adjustment. The government should seize this time to change the previous situation of the government led industrial policy and take too many measures to save the market.

In the case of an export-oriented economic growth model that is too dependent on the European and American markets, some experts have great expectations for strengthening regional cooperation.

"In the general situation of the international situation, it is important for Asian countries to maintain growth in the latter part of the world, including countries such as China, Japan and Korea.

Such as strengthening cooperation in non-tariff barriers, cross-border cooperation and logistics, in order to offset the adverse effects of Europe and the United States.

Yuan Bo, a doctor of the Ministry of Commerce, said.