Guangzhou Futures: The Overall Market Is Weak, Zheng Mian Suffers A Decline

Overnight, American Cotton closed down again, and the contract fell 1.61% in December, maintaining range consolidation as a whole. Zheng Mian The main contract 1301 fell 0.93% throughout the day. Zheng Mian was in a dilemma and maintained interval finishing in the short term. The main bulls in the top 20 increased 9774 hands to 125941, and the bears increased 3688 hands to 157843.

According to the weekly growth report of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), as of July 22, the excellent growth rate of American cotton was 47%, 45% in the previous week and 29% in the same period last year. In addition, the budding rate was 90%, 82% in the previous week, 76% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 82%; The boll setting rate of American cotton was 47%, 36% in the previous week, 41% in the same period last year, and 42% in the five-year average. Although some parts of the United States suffer from severe drought, the weather in cotton planting areas is relatively ideal. The drought in southeast and central south cotton regions has improved significantly. The cotton planting situation is good this year, which is difficult to cause weather speculation in the short term.

In India, due to the delayed rainy season, the seedling situation was not optimistic. Recently, the rainfall has increased, but the distribution is uneven, and the cotton growth is still not ideal. According to the local media in India, due to the abnormal monsoon rainfall in the main cotton producing areas, India's cotton production in the new year may be lower than previously expected. In India Cotton price Continue to rise. The picking price of Shankar-6 Ginning Plant is 38000 rupees/candy, the highest since November 2011, which is 88.00 cents/pound.

The main focus of the domestic market is still the current low demand situation. According to the import and export data of the customs in June, the cumulative export of textiles and clothing in the first half of 2012 was US $113.523 billion, an increase of 1.63% year on year and a decrease of 0.43 percentage points. European debt and rising domestic costs have led to difficulties in foreign trade. The demand of textile enterprises is low, and most of them can be bought and used at any time. The operating rate has remained low since the beginning of the year.

On July 24, China's cotton index CCIndex328 rose by 9 yuan to 18252 yuan per ton. Spot prices rose gradually, and quotas were lacking. Some textile enterprises began to purchase cotton from the mainland. China's import price cotton index FCIndexM is 88.85 cents, 1% tariff is 14285 yuan, and discount tax is 15066 yuan. The textile industry has entered the off-season, and cotton demand may not recover significantly in the short term. The price of gauze products is stable, and the price of all cotton knitting yarn 32S is 24605 yuan/ton.

We believe that at present American cotton The planting situation is good, and short-term weather speculation is difficult to trigger a big market. The overall oversupply of the cotton industry chain cannot be ignored. The textile industry has entered the low consumption season, and demand has not improved significantly, with obvious upward pressure. Due to the large drop in cotton prices in the early period, the short momentum has basically been released, and it is less likely to break the previous low. In addition, the purchase and storage gradually approached, and cotton prices were supported. The warehouse receipts of Zheng Cotton flowed out, reducing the pressure on firm offer. 1301 contract is expected to fluctuate between 19800-19000.