What Is The Trend Of The Domestic PTA Market In The Third Quarter?

Recently, purified terephthalic acid (PTA) futures rebounded from the bottom in the earlier period, and the price fluctuated between 7000 yuan and 7900 yuan. With the polyester industry entering the peak production season in autumn and winter in the third quarter, PTA demand will improve, but the new polyester capacity in the second half of the year is not enough to consume the new PTA capacity, and the fundamentals of the PTA industry will not be improved significantly. With the global economic downturn and the repeated European debt crisis, the PTA industry chain will continue to be weak.

The global economy declined, and the stock market and bulk commodities fell across the board. China's economic growth slowed down, and the overall market showed signs of insufficient demand. The European debt crisis continues, and the bond yields of Spain and Italy continue to rise. As China's largest export region, the EU economy is in recession, which directly affects textile and clothing export orders textile The export situation is difficult to improve in the short term.

In 2012, the planned new capacity of 11.5 million tons in Asia was all concentrated in China. The market in the first half of the year was sluggish, and the production was mostly postponed to the second half of the year. The 1.5 million ton unit of Tongkun was put into production in the third quarter, while the 2.55 million ton unit of downstream polyester was put into production in the third quarter. Therefore, the demand for PTA in the third quarter is still optimistic, which has a certain supporting effect on PTA prices. If all production capacity is put into operation in the fourth quarter, the new PTA capacity of 11.5 million tons/year can support the new polyester polyester production capacity of about 9.9 million tons/year. However, in 2012, the new polyester production capacity in Asia was only 8.5 million tons/year, of which about 6 million tons came from China. At that time, overcapacity will be the biggest negative factor for PTA. Although the supply contradiction is not prominent in the short term, China's textile industry has entered a low growth cycle, which will fundamentally inhibit PTA demand. The efficiency of PTA plant declines, and the load is generally maintained at 80% to 90%. On the other hand, the decline of profit space will further intensify competition in the industry, eliminate backward devices and accelerate industrial upgrading.

Recently, the paraxylene (PX) unit has been shut down unexpectedly, including the 700000 ton unit of Samsung Total in South Korea was shut down for a week on July 20, and the unexpected shutdown of Yokunri Mine Nisshi Energy in Shuidao B Refinery in Japan caused a shortage of raw materials for PX unit. Under the speculation of expected production reduction, Asian PX prices rose rapidly. As of July 24, FOB South Korea PX rose by $134 per ton to $1385 per ton. The continuous strength of PX has formed cost support for domestic PTA spot goods. Domestic PTA manufacturers have raised the listing price of contract goods in July, including Yisheng Petrochemical, BP Zhuhai, etc., by 450 yuan/ton to 8000 yuan/ton. The overcapacity hinders the PTA cost transfer ability, and the rapid rise of Asian PX prices further inhibits the profits of Asian PTA manufacturers, making them in a long-term loss state. PTA capacity is put into production too fast, and there is a large demand for PX. Finally, the supply and demand balance will be achieved through the price increase of PX and the load reduction of PTA factory. It is expected that PTA will rise slightly driven by PX cost, but the impact of extreme international crude oil market on the downstream is not excluded.

With the coming of peak production in autumn and winter, the polyester market has improved and started to transition from the off-season to the peak season. Enterprises began to reserve raw materials. The polyester load rose steadily. As of July 20, the polyester load index was 84.5%, Polyester staple Inventory also dropped to about 10 days. The polyester inventory is expected to continue to fall, and the downstream weaving load will also rise to 60%, more than 10% higher than the previous period, and it is expected to reach more than 70% in the near future. The production load of polyester filament industry rose steadily, and the future trend is expected to remain unchanged. The consumption demand of textile raw materials in autumn and winter is higher than that in spring and summer, and the demand in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half of the year. However, the polyester industry has no good support, and it will take some time to achieve good profits.

The expected increase in crude oil demand in the third quarter may keep the international crude oil price in a volatile upward trend, while PTA has been greatly affected by the upstream recently, so it can be cautious to long after the end of the callback. As of July 23, the long positions of the top 20 main players in PTA of Zhengshang Exchange reached 165000, successfully surpassing the short positions of the top 20 main players. The market's view on the PTA industry chain tends to improve as a whole. In the near future, the domestic cotton price is high and the import quota is small, which may increase the use of chemical fiber in textile enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to the domestic Cotton storage And market changes.