July 13, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20260 yuan / ton; 229 level 19394 yuan / ton; 328 level 18466 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17559 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9730 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15050 yuan / ton; C32S price 25380 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: 11, domestic cotton spot prices continued to rise slightly.

According to the monitoring system of the national cotton market, recently, the high-grade cotton quotas in some provinces in the mainland have experienced a sharp rise and fall. However, the number of pactions has not yet been effectively followed up.

3. imported cotton: in July 12th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton rose slightly, and the varieties were generally raised by 0.25 cents.

It is understood that the current downstream market sales are blocked, the market bearish atmosphere is still strong.

Overall, there is no sign of any loosening in the market. The wait-and-see sentiment of textile mills has led to a small number of spot pactions.

4. US cotton exports: in July 12, 2012, the US Department of Agriculture announced the US cotton export report from June 29, 2012 to July 5th.

In the week of 2011/12, the net volume of US cotton exports was 2 thousand tons. The main buyers were China, Taiwan, Turkey, Pakistan and Mexico. China cancelled 5 thousand tons of contracts.

5.ICE cotton: in July 11th, the USDA supply and demand report lowered the world's cotton output and ending stocks by 322 thousand tons and 462 thousand tons respectively in the next year, and stimulated the ICE cotton futures to break through 72 cents, but the Bulls took profits in the late stage, and the main contract increased to 30 in December.

Summary:

In the USDA report, the double reduction of global cotton initial inventory and production led to a 3% decrease in the inventory at the end of next year.

Global

The inventory consumption ratio was 66.4%, and last month the forecast value was 68.4%.

It can be interpreted as a small margin, but such a small profit can hardly change the basic weakness.

Every upward impact of cotton will be obviously limited by the fundamentals.

On the operation, we may use the idea of Interval Oscillation more than 20, and take the vicinity of the intersection of 19330 and 40 days as a reference. We should pay more attention to the pressure of 19650 high points in the early stage. If the breakthrough can be followed up for a short time, if we break 19330, we will stop more.

[Huaan futures] Zheng cotton is waiting for directions.

Key points:

1, the US Department of agriculture (USDA) report is positive, short term, to support the formation of cotton city;

2, China Customs statistics show that in June 2012, China's cotton imports increased by nearly 3 times. The reason is that the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is too large.

3, since July, the sales difficulty of textile enterprises has increased significantly, and the operating rate is less than 50%. The textile market has entered the "cold" season.

External trend: New York July 12th, cotton futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) were lower on Thursday, resulting in weaker financial markets due to speculative selling, and the broker said the tone of the sluggish cotton market will continue on Friday.

The cotton contract in December fell 1.06 cents, or about 1.5%, at 69.93 cents a pound, with a trading session of 69.66-71.40 cents, with a turnover of about 13500 on Thursday, about three points below two on the 30 day average.

Early comment: the euro debt problem continued to perplex the market, the euro fell to a two-year low, the peripheral stock market plummeted, the overnight ICE cotton fell sharply, and the domestic market, in order to stimulate domestic demand, the loose macro policy is still firmly implementing. From the cotton spot market, the domestic cotton turnover has improved slightly, especially the three grade cotton. As the market resources become less and less, cotton prices are easy to rise or fall without throwing or storing the quota of imported cotton. But because of the global textile market demand, the difficulty of downstream textile enterprises' sales continues to increase, and the cotton market is not optimistic at the later stage.

Operation, Zheng cotton 1301, intraday trading, waiting.

Guide directions before entering.