July 5, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20308 yuan / ton; 229 level 19423 yuan / ton; 328 level 18478 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17580 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9740 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15070 yuan / ton; C32S price 25670 yuan / ton.

2. domestic spot: today's spot market paction price basically stabilized, but

The downstream products are not well sold, and the funds are heavily occupied, but the turnover is not good. But in order to maintain production, enterprises are still buying and selling.

As for Xinjiang, as of July 1st, the remaining 1 million 200 thousand tons of Xinjiang cotton were left to be shipped at each pport station, including 930 thousand tons of reserve cotton and 270 thousand tons of commercial cotton.

The cotton side has been affected by peripheral adjustment, the price increase of cotton oil and meal has slowed down, the demand for cotton lint is still not ideal, the quotation is steady and weak, and the price of cottonseed has steadily increased.

3. imported cotton: in July 4th, although the ICE futures closed four Yang, the price of China's main port of import cotton still varied. In addition to the slight rise in cotton, cotton and India cotton, other varieties fell slightly.

It is understood that in the face of Port Bonded cotton, imported cotton traders need to withdraw cash, looking for quotas to facilitate sales.

4.USDA: the US Department of Agriculture released the actual coverage area in June 29th, showing that in 2012, the US

The sown area was 76 million 758 thousand mu, a decrease of 14% compared with the same period last year, of which the sown area of upland cotton was 75 million 330 thousand mu, a decrease of 14% compared with that of the previous year, and the planting area of Pima cotton was 1 million 428 thousand mu, a decrease of 24% over the same period last year.

5.ICE cotton: ICE suspended trading on Independence Day July 4th.

Summary:

In recent days, Zheng cotton has rebounded under the promotion of peripheral commodities, but the main indicators of textile PMI continue to perform poorly.

And the growth of cotton and cotton in China is good as a whole. There is no such thing as speculation.

Yesterday, Zheng cotton challenged the 19600 pressure level failure, which showed that the basic restrictions on the Zheng cotton rebound space were basically limited. It is possible to use the interval operation idea in the operation, and take the 20 day moving average as the reference. The above is the reference point of the previous small and high points and the moving average, which is consistent with the judgement that our Zheng cotton will run for a long time in the semi annual report.

[one German futures] no direction, Zheng cotton narrow shock

On Wednesday, CF1301 opened up and left. CF1301 closed more than 25.8 hands, and its position increased slightly.

CF1301 closed at 19415 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, 12580 additional hand; in July 4th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 85.15 cents / pound, up 0.68 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13699 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14607 yuan / ton.

In July 4th, the cotton trading market of the national cotton trading market reached 15600 tons, an increase of 2160 tons from the previous day, an increase of 5080 tons of orders, and a total purchase of 133400 tons.

On the 4 day, the market was generally open, and the intraday shock weakened.

On the basic level, the US cotton market will be closed on Thursday. The European Central Bank will announce the latest interest rate resolution. On Friday, the United States will announce the non farm employment data in June. Due to the uncertainty of the two factors on the short-term trend of the market, speculative capital will now enter the wait-and-see state.

Zheng cotton fell high on Wednesday, constrained by the upper resistance. Zheng cotton will temporarily oscillate in the 19200-19700 interval.

Today's operation suggests that light duty operation, interval operation, CF1301 reference price interval is 19300-19600.

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[MEIKO futures] cotton price trend passive Zheng cotton see gap pressure

Overnight, Wednesday (July 4th) was the independence day of the United States. The ICE sugar market was closed for a day and resumed on Thursday (July 5th).

On the news side, Xinjiang cotton is growing well. Although the initial sowing date has been postponed compared with the previous years, it has been concentrated in the middle seeding stage, with suitable climatic conditions, strong driving force and rapid seeding progress.

According to the survey in early June, cotton in southern Xinjiang was generally in the "6 leaves and 1 hearts", less than a real leaf in the average year, and 5-7 days after the growth period. The cotton in Northern Xinjiang is generally in the "5 leaves and 1 hearts", and the bud is growing in the middle of May, and the overall growth is better than last year.

International market, in July 4th, although the ICE futures closed four Yang, but the main port of China's imports of cotton prices are still mixed, in addition to the US cotton, Australia cotton and India cotton rose slightly, other varieties fell slightly.

It is understood that in the face of the bonded cotton piled up in the port, the imported cotton traders are in urgent need of returning cash, looking for quotas to promote sales.

Rumor has it that it is difficult for the end of the year to catch up with new quotas, which makes the number of quotas more tight.

Domestic market, 4, domestic cotton spot prices rose slightly, with the end of this cotton year, the textile industry is also entering the seasonal peak season. Under the demand driven and national policy protection, the possibility of a gradual warming of cotton prices is increasing. But considering the factors such as the improvement of consumer demand and the intensity of national regulation, there is little room for price rise.

Spot quotation, July 4th, the US C/A cotton quotation is 91.40 (cents / pound), the discount general trade port delivery price is 15334 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax), the Australian cotton quotation is 94.15, the general trade port delivery price is 15775 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton price is 92.70, the general trade port delivery price is 15550 yuan / ton, the India cotton quotation is 84.60, the general trade port delivery price 14262 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index is 19380 yuan / ton; the B index is 18446 yuan, rising by 2 yuan.

Market analysis, cotton due to poor overall consumption capacity, the offensive is limited, later by the influence of the surrounding atmosphere passive and rising possibility.

The US cotton futures price continued to rise slightly, but it still did not get rid of the bottom area. Because of the pressure of the real market, Zheng cotton's contract plate was slightly lighter, the gap between the 09 and 01 contract pressures formed in May 24th, the 05 contract pressure was 19700, and the bottom support was 19000.

Operation, 01 rely on 19200 buy, break off the field.

[Huaan futures] zhengmian single, continue to be cautious to guard against callback demand.

Key points:

1, "double knot Zero: imminent, financial pressure to make cotton enterprises to reduce prices and goods, but spot purchases are still light;

2, the market is expected to cut interest rates by the European central bank more and more. Most economists expect that Europe and the bank will lower interest rates to 0.75% of the historical low. If the European Central Bank cuts interest rates, the possibility of QE3 withdrawal will increase significantly.

Outward trend: July 4th Independence Day, ICE closed, focusing on Friday's US non farm data.

Early comment: market expectations for the European Central Bank to lower interest rates are getting stronger and stronger. Major commodities are generally on the rise. CRB commodity index has risen nearly 10% recently. This loose monetary expectation will help boost market sentiment, especially agricultural products.

Domestic cotton market, because cotton price is much higher than the international cotton price, textile and apparel products are not competitive in the international market, the external demand is sluggish and the domestic demand is not strong. The pressure of Zheng cotton is still larger from the industrial chain. Under the general warm market atmosphere, Zheng cotton is still in the rising channel, but the strength of other agricultural products is weaker. The depressed spot market is the biggest resistance to Zheng cotton's rise. Later, it will also restrict the rising space of Zheng cotton. But as the 1301 contract of the new cotton season, the latter will focus on the factors that affect the supply and demand of new cotton.

In terms of production, the 1301 cotton should be alert to the callback in the short term and pay more attention to the support of the 5 day moving average. If the 19300 line of downhill is near, most of them will only wait to win.