Cotton Prices Are Expected To Be Weak In The Near Future

Recently, domestic

Turnover continued to be flat, and cotton yarn prices continued to fall.

domestic

Spot prices are slightly stable, but the stalemate of buying and selling has not yet been broken, and market turnover is still limited.

In June 22nd, the price of 32 cotton combed yarn was 25560 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 0.2%, down 5540 yuan / ton compared with last year.

17.8%, polyester staple fiber quoted 9680 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton, or 0.2%, down 3070 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 24.1%.

The national cotton price B index, representing the average selling price of the standard grade cotton in the mainland, was 18480 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week, down 5957 yuan / ton, or 24.4%; the average price of Xinjiang standard lint sale was 18751 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week, down 6810 yuan / ton, or 26.6%.

Zhengzhou cotton futures contract settlement price in September 2012 was 18495 yuan / ton, down 105 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 0.6%, down 6790 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 26.9%, while the average price of the electronic contract in the national cotton trading market was 18430 yuan / ton in September 2012, compared with last week, it fell 78 yuan / ton, or 0.4%, down by 5960 yuan / ton, or 24.4%.

The people's Bank of China issued the national banker questionnaire survey in the two quarter of 2012 and the entrepreneur questionnaire survey report in the two quarter of 2012.

The results show that more than 30% of bankers and entrepreneurs believe that the current macro-economy is too cold, and they lack confidence in the future.

Although the two sides expect the next quarter to cut quasi interest rate cuts and other means of regulation will continue, monetary policy will moderately loose, but judging from the entrepreneur's judgment on the operation of the company in the next quarter, the adverse factors such as shrinking orders and falling product sales prices will continue. The profit space will be further narrowed, highlighting the lack of vitality in the real economy and the obvious slowdown in the economy.

On the basic level, the number of foreign cotton coming to Hong Kong is increasing, and the supply of cotton spot resources outside the bonded area is adequate. The cotton textile enterprises in the downstream continue to use cotton in high proportion so that the domestic cotton price operation pressure can hardly be alleviated in the short term.

Although the cotton processing enterprises have great expectations for the role of the new cotton purchase and storage policy in the coming year, far away water is difficult to solve.

In summary, the domestic cotton price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the near future.

Influenced by the macroeconomic factors such as the failure of the US Federal Reserve to launch the third round of quantitative easing (QE3) and other macro factors, the risk aversion has pushed the US dollar index higher, the fluctuation of commodity market has intensified, the New York cotton futures price oscillation has dropped, and the international spot price volatility has been relatively gentle, which is higher than that of the previous week.

In June 22nd, New York cotton futures contract settlement price in October 2012 was 69.3 cents / pound, down 1.6 cents / pound, or 2.2%, compared with last week.

The international cotton index (M), which represents the average price of the Chinese main port on the import cotton, is calculated at 1% tariff. The cost of import of RMB is 13981 yuan / ton, up 234 yuan / ton, or 1.7%, lower than that of the domestic market by 4499 yuan / ton, and the price difference decreased 233 yuan / ton compared with last week. According to the sliding tax, the cost of import is 14881 yuan / ton, up 183 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 1.2% yuan, lower than the 3599 yuan / ton in the domestic market, and the price difference decreased by 182 yuan / ton last week.

New York's cotton futures have sped up all the gains of the previous week after the market's failure in QE3 triggered a bull market selling commodities.

As far as the current situation is concerned, the pattern of loose supply and demand in the market is difficult to change. The rapid increase of cotton stocks outside China's ports will continue to restrict the price of foreign cotton.

In the absence of new favorable factors, the main contract of New York cotton futures will hardly continue to be strong again.

In the near future, we still need to pay attention to the market's speculation about the weather factors during the growth period and the impact of the external macro environment changes on the commodity market.