Tight Market Funds Or Reduce Reserve Requirement Ratio In July

"Money is hard to borrow."

This is the latest mantra of many interbank market traders.

Last week, money market interest rates soared, which highlighted the tension of market funds at the end of the quarter and the end of the year.

In June 21st, the interbank market pledged repo rate rose sharply, and the 7 day varieties rose by more than 90 basis points to 4.38%, which is the first time that the rate of interest has exceeded 4% since April 6th, when the interest rate was about 4.23%.

At the same time, the central bank continued to stop issuing central banks this week. It only carried out 20 billion yuan, 28 days and 5 billion yuan 91 days repo operation. As the repurchase of 80 billion yuan was expired this week, the open market was put in 55 billion yuan for a continuous third week net investment, and the previous two weeks were put in 2 billion yuan and 36 billion yuan respectively.

However, this has not alleviated the tight market funds and the interbank market.

Interest rates continue to rise.

"At the end of the six months, the assessment effect is beginning to show, and the interest rate in money market continues to rise. It is expected that the central bank will take measures such as reverse repurchase to stabilize the financial crisis."

Everbright Securities (601788, stock bar) reported.

Haitong Securities (600837, stock bar) believes that the current point of view, interbank liquidity will soon face July.

The increase in base money has been reduced.

In addition, historically, deposits will increase significantly in June, so commercial banks need to make up the reserve. The interest rate of money market has been rising since this month. It is estimated that there will be a reduction in deposit reserve ratio in July.

Market participants tend to believe that in order to ease market liquidity, the central bank will not rule out a combination of the first reverse buy back and the lower limit.

In May 7th -5 11 weeks, the central bank in the open market alternating repo and reverse repurchase operations, and then lowered the deposit reserve rate in May 18th, the market is quite surprised.

The central bank data show that in May, although foreign exchange accounted for a positive growth, the increase was only 23 billion 431 million yuan.

It is worth noting that in June 21st, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.3004, but the exchange rate fell by 0.98%, which is close to the "limit". It shows that the trend of depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is still continuing, which will have a direct impact on the change of foreign exchange.

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It means short term capital or a certain degree of outflow, so although foreign exchange accounted for a positive growth in May, the growth rate was very small.

This year, the growth rate of foreign exchange will continue to slow down significantly. At the same time, the funds in the open market have fallen sharply, which means that the relatively loose liquidity is only reduced. Therefore, the deposit rate is expected to be reduced by 1-3 times this year.

Lian Ping, chief economist at the bank, thinks.