June 2012 20 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures -

[Hongyuan

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20308 yuan / ton; 229 level 19423 yuan / ton; 328 level 18478 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17580 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9740 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15070 yuan / ton; C32S price 25670 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: 19, the domestic cotton spot price has not been driven by the recent strong trend of Zheng cotton, and the price trend has slowed down. The main reason is that the downstream textile enterprises have not improved significantly, and some of the textile enterprises have continued to decline, but the market panic has been alleviated, and traders' mentality is relatively stable.

3. imported cotton: in June 19th, the price of China's main cotton imports rose slightly, and most varieties rose 0.75 cents.

In recent days, the cotton price has taken a small step every day, and the textile factory before watching has begun to take action.

4.ICE cotton: in June 19th, the US dollar weakened sharply and the commodity market was supported by the market's anticipation of further relaxation of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

ICE cotton futures also continued to rise, the main contract in December soared sharply, and the short-term price average was left behind. In July, the contract was closed at the push of the short replacement disk, and the upward trend continued.

Recently, there are more macro messages that need special attention.

As Zheng cotton has stabilized, domestic stock has also stopped.

Technically, Zheng cotton has been standing on the 20 day moving average, suggesting that investors should rely on the 20 day moving average to do more operations. But in view of the weakness of the fundamentals, Zheng cotton is unlikely to show a continuous upward trend. During the rebound, Zheng cotton's January contract will encounter pressure on the 19600 and 40 day moving average.

Overnight, in June 19th, the US dollar weakened sharply and the commodity market was supported by the anticipation of further relaxation of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

ICE cotton futures also continued to rise, the main contract in December soared sharply, and the short-term price average was left behind. In July, the contract was closed at the push of the short replacement disk, and the upward trend continued.

In addition to external market cooperation, China's poor weather and the expected decrease in US cotton sowing area all provided the market with upward momentum. The December contract will continue to explore after breaking through the resistance position of 73.08 cents.

In the international market, in June 19th, the price of imported cotton in China increased slightly, and most varieties rose 0.75 cents.

In recent days, the cotton price has taken a small step every day, and the textile factory before watching has begun to take action.

It is reported that China's purchase orders may be as high as more than ten thousand tons. If the information is true, the cotton will be supported.

Judging from the market situation, the economic risk of the euro zone has not been lifted at the moment, and the overall environment is not optimistic. However, many factors such as the decline of cotton planting area and the improvement of demand can not be ignored.

The domestic market, 19, the domestic cotton spot price has not been driven by the recent strong trend of Zheng cotton, and the price trend has slowed down. The main reason is that the downstream textile enterprises have not improved significantly, and some of the textile enterprises have continued to decline, but the market panic has been alleviated, and traders' mentality is relatively stable.

Spot quotation, in June 19th, the US C/A cotton quotation is 90.60 (cents / pound), the discount general trade port delivery price is 15148 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax), the Australian cotton quotation is 95.85, the general trade port price is 15984 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton quotation is 93.40, the general trade port delivery price is 15595 yuan / ton, the West African cotton price is 88.35, the general trade port delivery price is 14791 yuan / ton, the India cotton quotation is 89.60, the general trade port delivery price is 14997 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index was 19424 yuan / ton, down 1 yuan; the B index was 18479 yuan.

Market analysis, July contract in the United States cotton for export bottoming stimulus, delisting on the occasion of the phenomenon of squeezed warehouse, the recent continuous market prices.

In the final analysis, whether or not the price of cotton will continue to rise depends on macro orientation and consumption. At present, the two most important factors affecting market prices are not reversed obviously, and should be treated with caution.

Zheng cotton trend more passive characteristics are obvious, the current price reached 19500 near the pre intensive trading area, the short term is facing greater pressure.