In May, China's PMI Decreased By 2.9 Percentage Points To 50.4%, And The Textile And Garment Industry Was Higher Than 50 Points.

China Federation of logistics and purchasing

China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the service industry survey center in May was 50.4%, down 2.9 percentage points from last month.

It shows that economic growth has dropped somewhat.

However, the index remained above 50% for 6 consecutive months, reflecting the fact that the momentum of economic growth has not changed.

The current economic growth in the short term does not mean that China's economy has entered a new recession stage.

While paying attention to the slowdown of economic growth, we must also see the good side of economic development.

From the 11 sub index, compared with the previous month, except the finished product inventory index rose, the rest of the index declined to varying degrees.

Among them, the purchase price index dropped the largest, reaching 10 percentage points; production index, new order index and backlog order index fell by more than 4 percentage points; the employment index and supplier delivery time index fell less than 1 percentage points.

In terms of industry, metal products industry, food and alcoholic beverage refining tea manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry,

And 10 industries such as petroleum processing and coking industry were higher than 50%, while the remaining 11 industries were below 50%.

From the scale of enterprises, large and medium-sized enterprises are higher than 50%; small businesses are less than 50%.

According to the survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing industry in May, Zhang Liqun, a special analyst, said: "in May, the PMI index showed a sharp fall, which is consistent with the trend of economic growth.

The new order index has fallen sharply, indicating that the operating rate of the enterprises in the future may be further reduced, and the economic growth rate may continue to fall.

At present, macroeconomic policies have been carrying out targeted pre fine-tuning, especially in stabilizing investment, with more measures being adopted, and it is expected that the economic downturn will stabilize.

The new order index fell to below 50%.

This month's new order index was 49.8%, down 4.7 percentage points from last month.

In terms of industry, 11 industries, including metal products industry, food and alcoholic beverage refining tea manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, petroleum processing and coking industry, are over 50%, and 10 industries such as special equipment manufacturing, wood processing and furniture manufacturing, automobile manufacturing, railway shipping, aerospace and pportation equipment manufacturing are below 50%.

From the regional perspective, the eastern and northeastern parts are above 50%, while the central and western regions are below 50%.

From the scale of enterprises, large and medium-sized enterprises are higher than 50%; small and micro enterprises are less than 50%.

Production index callback is obvious.

This month's production index was 52.9%, down 4.3 percentage points from last month.

In terms of industry, 14 industries, including metal products industry, food and alcoholic beverage refining tea manufacturing industry, petroleum processing and coking industry and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, are higher than 50% industries, and 7 industries, such as automobile manufacturing, wood processing and furniture manufacturing, railway shipping, aerospace and pportation equipment manufacturing, and so on, are below 50%.

From the regional perspective, the East, West and northeast are higher than 50%, while the central part is below 50%.

From the scale of enterprises, large and medium-sized enterprises are higher than 50%, while small and micro enterprises are below 50%.

The new export orders index and import index both fell.

This month's new export orders index was 50.4%, down 1.8 percentage points from last month.

In terms of industry, 10 industries, including metal products industry, petroleum processing and coking industry, textile and garment industry, general equipment manufacturing industry and automobile manufacturing industry, are higher than 50%. The 11 industries such as wood processing and furniture manufacturing, non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing, special equipment manufacturing, black gold smelting and rolling processing industry are below 50%.

From the regional perspective, China, the West and the Northeast are above 50%, while the East is less than 50%.

From the scale of enterprises, medium-sized and small enterprises are higher than 50%, and large enterprises are less than 50%.

This month's import index was 48.1%, down 2.4 percentage points from last month.

From the industry perspective, 5 industries, such as food and alcoholic beverages, refined tea manufacturing, petroleum processing and coking and metal products industries, are over 50%; chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, wood processing and furniture manufacturing, and chemical fiber and rubber (23610, -405.00, -1.69%) plastics (9690, -35.00, -0.36%) products and other 16 industries are below 50%.

Finished product inventory index has increased.

The inventory index of finished goods was 52.2% this month, up 2.7 percentage points from last month.

From the industry perspective, 13 industries, such as food and alcoholic beverage refining, tea manufacturing, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing, petroleum processing and coking, pharmaceutical manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing and textile industry, are over 50%; wood processing and furniture manufacturing, non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing, and railway shipbuilding, aerospace and pportation equipment manufacturing 3 industries are located in 50% industries; automobile manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, non-metallic mineral products, computer communication and electronic equipment, instrumentation manufacturing and textile and garment industry 5 industries are below 50%.

The purchase price index has dropped sharply.

This month's purchase price index was 44.8%, down 10 percentage points from last month.

From the industry perspective, 6 industries, such as tobacco products, wood processing and furniture manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, food and alcoholic beverages, refined tea manufacturing and so on, are higher than 50%; petroleum processing and coking, chemical fiber and rubber plastic products, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries are below 50% in 15 industries.

Survey of Manufacturing Purchasing Managers

1. main indicators explanation

The purchasing managers index (PMI) is an index compiled by the monthly survey results of enterprise purchasing managers, which covers all aspects of enterprise procurement, production and circulation. It is one of the leading indicators in the world to monitor the macroeconomic trend. It has strong prediction and early warning effect.

PMI usually takes 50% as the dividing point of economic strength. When PMI is above 50%, it reflects the economic expansion of manufacturing industry, while less than 50% reflects the contraction of manufacturing economy.

2. scope of investigation

Involving 31 industries in the manufacturing industry of the national economic classification (GB/T4754-2011), 820 samples from the whole country were surveyed.

3. survey methodology

The purchasing managers of manufacturing industry investigated the PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, taking the manufacturing industry as the main category. The sample size of the industry was allocated according to the added value of the total manufacturing value. The sample in the layer used the probability sampling proportion to the income of the main business.

The survey conducted a monthly questionnaire survey on purchasing managers of enterprises by direct online survey.

4. calculation method

The questionnaire survey of manufacturing purchasing managers involves 11 questions: production volume, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase volume, import, purchase price, raw material inventory, employees and supplier delivery time.

The diffusion index is calculated for each problem, that is, the percentage of enterprises answered positively and half of the percentage of respondents who answered the same question.

It is a composite index calculated by weighting the 5 diffusivity index (classification index).

The 5 classification index and its weights are determined according to their antecedent impact on the economy.

Including: the new order index, the weight is 30%, the production index, the weight is 25%, the employee index, the weight is 20%, the supplier delivery time index, the weight is 15%, the raw material inventory index, the weight is 10%.

Among them, the supplier delivery time index is an inverse index, and the reverse operation is performed when synthesizing the PMI composite index.

5. seasonal adjustment

Purchasing manager survey is a monthly survey, which is affected by seasonal factors and fluctuates greatly.

The PMI composite index and the classification indices are all seasonally adjusted.

China Federation of logistics and purchasing (CFLP)